OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Picture

Updated: February 9, 2018

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale

PROS:

The most nominated film of the year (13 nominations). Won Producers Guild of America, Critics Choice, Dallas-Fort Worth, Phoenix, and St. Louis. The love for Director Guillermo del Toro is also shaping up to translate into Best Picture.

CONS:

Missed out on SAG Ensemble which every Best Picture winner has had since "Braveheart," the first year of SAG.

2

“Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan

PROS:

A summer release that has the love of the people behind it. World War II is a favorite with the Academy and it has itself a hefty nomination total with 8 in total, the second most of any film.

CONS:

The film has no acting or screenplay nominations. It would be the first film to win Best Picture without those two things intact.

3

“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Peter Czemin

PROS:

Winner of the Golden Globe (Drama) prize, SAG Ensemble, Phoenix, Nevada, and Las Vegas Critics prizes. Poised to win two acting awards for McDormand and Rockwell and is looking mighty good in screenplay to boot.

CONS:

Missed out on a Director nomination. It would be the first since "Argo" to win without it if all the guilds stay true. There's also a vocal backlash occurring for the film which could hurt with so much time until the ceremony.

4

“Lady Bird” (A24)
Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin

PROS:

A critical darling that won 11 critics prizes, tied for the most with "Get Out." The "Year of the Woman" has been very kind to it and if they're looking to get behind something, Greta Gerwig's beloved film could be it.

CONS:

No Editing nomination which tends to be crucial in a Best Picture winner. The last film to win without it was "Birdman or (the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)." It's also been doing poorly at award shows lately, pulling donuts at SAG and Critics Choice.

5

“Phantom Thread” (Focus Features)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, JoAnne Sellar, Daniel Lupi

PROS:

The film shocked, picking up multiple nominations (6 in total) including Director and Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville) which were surprises).

CONS:

The nomination seems to be the reward as it doesn't have Screenplay or Editing nominations to be in the hunt for this big prize.

6

“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Jordan Peele

PROS:

First-time director Jordan Peele made history and his film is one of the most critically acclaimed of the year. It ties with "Lady Bird" for the most wins from the critic's groups. Can it pull off the upset?

CONS:

No Editing nomination is a killer. Are the Oscars ready to go for a horror film again in Best PIcture? It's been a while since "The Silence of the Lambs."

7

“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)
Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski

PROS:

The British voting bloc showed up and got Joe Wright's film into the Best Picture race, to go along with Gary Oldman's Best Actor statue that's sure to come.

CONS:

It'll likely have a nice time at BAFTA but a Best Picture win is far-fetched without Director or Screenplay nominations. Also, was ignored heavily with the guilds leading up to nominations.

8

“Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears, Rodrigo Teixeira

PROS:

Critics loved the film and Timothee Chalamet is going to give Gary Oldman some competition. With the film pulling off wins at Los Angeles Film Critics Association, the west coast voters can concentrate their love on this one.

CONS:

The film limped in on the day without nominations for Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg), Editing, and Director. It's subject matter is sure to turn off conservative voters.

9

“The Post” (20th Century Fox)
Kristie Macosko Krieger, Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg

PROS:

The film had Oscar-bait written all over it and it made it through in the end. Can Steven Spielberg work his magic for another Best Picture win?

CONS:

The film received two nominations: Picture and Lead Actress (Meryl Streep). It's a hard case to prove that this is the next "Mutiny on the Bounty" or "Grand Hotel," films that won Best Picture only.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
FOREIGN LANGUAGE | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE |

| ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT |