OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Picture

Updated: September 21, 2017

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

“The Post” (20th Century Fox)
Kristie Macosko Krieger, Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg

PROS:

Spielberg, an Academy favorite with an all-star cast with a very timely material.

CONS:

Still filming. Will it be finished in time?

2

“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)
Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski

PROS:

Biopic of a historical figure. Oscar-bait to the fullest.

CONS:

Period dramas can be dry for voters. They could opt for something else entirely.

3

“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale

PROS:

Guillermo del Toro is back (supposedly). The trailer had many excited and this could his welcome back and be able to make up his omission for "Pan's Labyrinth."

CONS:

Could it be too strange for voters?

4

“Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan

PROS:

Nolan's previous snubs are well known. World War II is a good place to try it again.

CONS:

Summer release and they tend to give Nolan the finger often.

5

“Mudbound” (Netflix)
Carl Effenson, Sally Jo Effenson, Cassian Elwes, Charles King, Christopher Lemole, Kim Roth, Tim Zajaros

PROS:

Diverse. Strong reviews from Sundance. Could be what Oscar ordered.

CONS:

Netflix machine hasn't quite nailed how to roll these films out for Oscar attention.

6

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Peter Czemin

PROS:

Feeling very FARGO and in all the right ways. The reviews are very hot at the moment and could garner some hardcore passion.

CONS:

Could land easier with acting and screenplay categories.

7

“Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)
Ginger Sledge; John Sloss

PROS:

Opening NYFF. Sounds like a contender that Amazon wants to push. The trailer had many hopeful.

CONS:

Flying under the radar at the moment. Will it make an impact?

8

“Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Danny Boyle, Christian Colson, Robert Graf

PROS:

Always room for a light hearted choice but this even has a tone of "serious" which Oscar tends to love when mixed. Telluride reviews were outstanding.

CONS:

Maybe TOO light? We'll see.

9

“Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears

PROS:

Played at Sundance. Already declared a contender by many.

CONS:

Uncomfortable subject matter. Academy may be cold to it.

NEXT IN LINE

10

“Wonder Wheel” (Amazon Studios)
Erika Aronson, Letty Aronson, Edward Walson

PROS:

A Woody Allen film that seems to be landing on his supposed "on" year. NYFF closing is a good look for it.

CONS:

Woody is hit or miss. You never know what you're getting.

11

“Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film” (Focus Features)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, JoAnne Sellar

PROS:

An auteur director that has assembled 3-time Oscar-winner Daniel Day-Lewis in his supposed final screen role.

CONS:

Anderson can be an acquired taste and often AMPAS doesn't respond.

12

“All the Money in the World” (Sony Pictures)
Chris Clark, Quentin Curtis, Dan Friedkin, Mark Huffam, Ridley Scott, Bradley Thomas, Kevin J. Walsh

PROS:

Ridley Scott got back in the good graces of AMPAS with "The Martian." Is he back for good?

CONS:

As proven by any other Ridley Scott films, he can often miss completely (even when he's decent) a la 'The Martian'

13

“Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)
Mark Johnson, Alexander Payne

PROS:

Alexander Payne very popular with Academy. Original story. Great cast.

CONS:

Is it too light hearted? More serious films coming down the pike. Telluride reviews were a bit mixed.

14

“Coco” (Pixar)
Darla K. Anderson

PROS:

Pixar has cracked the BP lineup before. Early word is big.

CONS:

Sliding scale has not been kind to animated films (see: "Inside Out" and "Frozen")

15

“Detroit” (Annapurna Pictures)
Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Matthew Budman, Megan Ellison, Colin Wilson

PROS:

Important, timely story helmed by the Oscar-winner of "The Hurt Locker." There are vocal fans.

CONS:

Everyone seemed to agree that the last third was problematic. Will that cost it?

16

“Blade Runner 2049” (Warner Bros.)
Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson, Bud Yorkin, Cynthia Yorkin

PROS:

Sequel to a beloved film. Helmed by the recently embraced director of "Arrival" with many respecting his outings on "Sicario" and "Prisoners."

CONS:

Sci-fi films and sequels can have a rough time, especially since the first wasn't embraced in the major categories.

17

“The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox)
Hugh Jackman, Laurence Mark

PROS:

Passion projects usually get people looking. Musicals are also a hot commodity.

CONS:

Musicals are also VERY divisive.

18

“Wonderstruck” (Amazon Studios)
Brian Bell, Pamela Koffler, John Sloss, Christine Vachon, Frank Murray

PROS:

The Centerpiece Selection for NYFF. Played at Cannes. Todd Haynes' snub for "Carol" still stings with many.

CONS:

Reviews were solid but it will likely need critical love to make it through (and then some).

19

“Goodbye Christopher Robin” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Steve Christian, Damian Jones, Simon Vaughan

PROS:

It could be the "Finding Neverland" of the year.

CONS:

How excited will it make voters? Based on the trailer, it could be just...fine?

20

“The Florida Project” (A24)
Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch, Kevin Chinoy, Andrew Duncan, Alex Saks, Francesca Silvestri, Shih-Ching Tsou

PROS:

A24 is gearing up for a big push. How far will it go with star Willem Dafoe playing the overdue card?

CONS:

Seems mighty small for a Best Picture run.

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

21

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Kathleen Kennedy, Ram Bergman

PROS:

It's an effing STAR WARS movie. Are we working our way towards a big AMPAS embracement in the future?

CONS:

Until proven otherwise...it's only "A New Hope" to carry a "Best Picture nominee" torch.

22

“Victoria and Abdul” (Focus Features)
Beeban Kidron

PROS:

British period piece. Judi Dench's second round as the beloved Queen.

CONS:

Early is that its light and likely just a Dench player.

23

“Wind River” (The Weinstein Company)
Elizabeth A. Bell, Peter Berg

PROS:

Sundance hit that received strong praise.

CONS:

Flying heavily UNDER the radar. Will it creep back up? Will voters remember it?

24

“The Beguiled” (Focus Features)
Sofia Coppola, Roman Coppola, Youree Henley

PROS:

Won Best Director at Cannes. Sofia Coppola is a former directing nominee.

CONS:

Reviews were very good, just not very great, which is what it needs.

25

“Molly’s Game” (STX Entertainment)
Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal

PROS:

Sorkin's directorial debut. Highly anticipated.

CONS:

Needs to live up to the hype. Will it play festivals?

26

“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)
Darren Aronofsky, Scott Franklin, Ari Handel

PROS:

The reviews are divisive but the ones who love it, REALLY love it. It could garner a lot of passion.

CONS:

The film is one of the toughest watches in years. For the softer Academy member, they'll likely walk out.

27

“War for the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Fox)
Peter Chernin, Dylan Clark, Dylan Clark, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver

PROS:

Tops off as one of the best trilogies in modern movie history. A visual treat for all.

CONS:

They haven't cared before. Why would they now?

28

“Murder on the Orient Express” (20th Century Fox)
Kenneth Branagh, Mark Gordon, Judy Hofflund, Simon Kinberg, Michael Schaefer, Ridley Scott, Aditya Sood

PROS:

A remake of a loved classic.

CONS:

The trailer got mixed reviews. Will the actual movie be better?

29

“Logan” (20th Century Fox)
Hutch Parker, Lauren Shuler Donner

PROS:

One of the best reviewed of the first half of the year and sources say there DEFINITELY will be a campaign for ALL categories.

CONS:

Superhero films are hard sells.

30

“Suburbicon” (Paramount Pictures)
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Joel Silver, Teddy Schwarzman

PROS:

George Clooney directed. Big cast. Paramount push.

CONS:

Venice reviews were mixed. Looks to be one of those that sits on the outside.

ALSO IN CONTENTION

31

“I, Tonya” (NEON)
Steven Rogers

PROS:

Received great reviews out of TIFF, with many calling it a contender.

CONS:

With a new distribution company, you never know what you're going to get. Let's see how they handle it.

32

“The Current War” (The Weinstein Company)
Timur Bekmambetov, Basil Iwanyk, Steven Zaillian

PROS:

Biopic pushed by Harvey Weinstein. After missing for "Carol," they're coming back with a vengeance. With "Mary Magdalene" moving to 2018, this will likely be their focus. Playing TIFF.

CONS:

Early test screenings suggest we could be in for something poor. Can't trust those until official reviews drop.

33

“Lady Bird” (A24)
Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin

PROS:

Greta Gerwig's directorial debut and she's been climbing the ranks of "overdue" person in the industry. Reviews were strong out of the festivals.

CONS:

Seems small for a Best Picture play. Screenplay may be more appropriate.

34

“Stronger” (Lionsgate)
Jake Gyllenhaal, David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Michel Litvak, Scott Silver

PROS:

Boston bombing story that will surely garner lots of emotions.

CONS:

Looks like a Gyllenhaal player but will the film be big enough to get people on board?

35

“The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios)
Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel

PROS:

One of the summer's biggest hits. A sure fire Globe player.

CONS:

Will they remember it? Seems more in line with a screenplay run.

36

“Marshall” (Open Road Films)
Paula Wagner, Reginald Hudlin, Jonathan Sanger, Jun Dong

PROS:

A movie about the first supreme court justice is a subject worth considering.

CONS:

The trailer made it look like Thurgood Marshall-Action Star. Not really a safe bet.

37

“Breathe” (Bleecker Street)
Jonathan Cavendish

PROS:

A film about a disability with Andrew Garfield. Bleecker Street feels confident.

CONS:

Could be more of an acting showcase than a Best Picture contender.

38

“The Death of Stalin” (IFC Films)
Nicolas Duval Adassovsky, Kevin Loader, Laurent Zeitoun, Yann Zenou

PROS:

AMPAS may respond to something like this. Playing at TIFF.

CONS:

IFC Films has only shown its Oscar muscles with "Boyhood." Will they be able to repeat that again?

39

“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Jordan Peele

PROS:

The single best-reviewed film of the year. 99% on Rotten Tomatoes. Could Oscar like a horror comedy such as this...?

CONS:

...gut check says "No" but Universal is trying regardless.

40

“Novitiate” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jessica Betts, Carole Peterman, Celina Rattray, Trudie Styler

PROS:

The film is a fascinating piece and is an interesting response to last year's winner "Moonlight." With some of its stars in contention (namely Melissa Leo), the film has to be somewhat in the mix and the reviews are there.

CONS:

The film is a bit smaller and will they be inclined to vote for it with bigger, louder films in the mix?

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

41

“The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Eli Bush, Scott Rudin, Lila Yacoub

PROS:

Played at Cannes with many praising.

CONS:

An Adam Sandler film in Best Picture? Until proven otherwise.

42

“First They Killed My Father” (Netflix)
Angelina Jolie, Rithy Panh

PROS:

Angelina Jolie directing this foreign film that is rumored to pull the heartstrings.

CONS:

"Unbroken" was divisive. Netflix is also not a safe bet at the Oscars yet.

43

“The Disaster Artist” (A24)
James Franco, Evan Goldberg, Seth Rogen, James Weaver, Vince Jolivette

PROS:

The trailer was EVERYTHING. Looks hilarious. SXSW crowd loved it.

CONS:

It's a hardcore comedy and they don't go for that typically in the top categories.

44

“Thank You for Your Service” (Universal Pictures)
Jon Kilik

PROS:

War film directed by the writer of 'American Sniper.'

CONS:

These types of films seem tired within the industry. Will need to be different.

45

“The 15:17 to Paris” (Warner Bros.)
Clint Eastwood, Jessica Meier, Tim Moore, Kristina Rivera

PROS:

Clint Eastwood is always in play for something.

CONS:

He's been hit or miss since "Million Dollar Baby" and we'd argue more of a miss.

46

“The Snowman” (Universal Pictures)
Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Solvo, Peter Gustafsson

PROS:

Intriguing tale pushed by Universal with the director of "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy."

CONS:

Looks to be just a moneymaker based on the trailer.

47

“Wonder Woman” (Warner Bros.)
Charles Roven, Doborah Snyder, Zack Snyder, Richard Suckle

PROS:

Warner Bros. is going for it and they could get people to rally behind it. Will the Academy see past the genre?

CONS:

Gut check says....no but with the new membership, who knows?

48

“Wonder” (Lionsgate)
Michael Beugg, Dan Clark, David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman

PROS:

Deformed child (Jacob Tremblay) opposite Julia Roberts. Wildcard?

CONS:

Isn't this just "Mask 2.0?"

49

“Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Barbara Broccoli, Colin Vaines

PROS:

The already labeled Annette Bening vehicle needs to show SOME legs in other categories, doesn't it?

CONS:

That title...change it.

50

“Beatriz at Dinner” (Roadside Attractions)

PROS:

A smaller film with vocal support. You just never know.

CONS:

It's minuscule standing next to other films. That's a "Mount Everest" for it to climb.

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |

 

  • Reece

    I don’t get why people are lowering Downsizing.. The reviews are great so far, and it has a December release

    • Reece

      I don’t think that Battle of the Sexes can make it that far to a Best Picture nom. The reviews are decent, and it has a September release. This one, I’d say, relies on the box office. The more people watch it, higher chance they’ll remember or care about it.

  • Michael

    Curious why Florida Project is so low. I get your cons but it has a 91 on metacrtitic. I know critics aren’t everything but it’s in the top 4 or 5 and you’ve placed it 22nd below films that have scores in the 50’s….Also A24 is a pretty hot studio right now.

  • Robotman

    I hope Dunkirk wins Best Picture.

  • Bill

    At this point, I think it’s time to stop fucking around with Three Billboards and saying it’s just going to compete in the screenplay and acting categories. I mean the reviews and responses are stellar. It could certainly go for a picture nomination.

    Also stop denying Get Out. People are still talking about it. It will last the whole year and critics circles are going to nominate it and boost it. Don’t underestimate Gold Derby.

  • Sentinel666

    My predictions :

    1.”The Disaster Artist”
    2.”Phantom Thread”
    3.”Last Flag Flying”
    4.”The Florida Project”
    5.”Call Me By Your Name”
    6.”Get Out”
    7.”Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri”
    8.”The Shape of Water”
    9.”The Greatest Showman”

    Next in line :

    10.”Wind River”
    11.”You Were Never Really Here”
    12.”Darkest Hour”
    13.”Dunkirk”
    14.”The Post”
    15.”Downsizing”
    16.”The Beguiled”
    17.”All the Money in the World”
    18.”mother!”
    19.”Marshall”
    20.”Wonder”

    • Reece

      Those are some funky predictions, mate

      • Sentinel666

        Maybe some, but I didn’t see all of these films and I don’t know how good they are. I suggest reviews, awards and predictions on this site and other sites. I watched “Dunkirk”, “The Beguiled” and “Get Out”. “Get Out” is a really strong contender and I think that’a really really great movie, the best of the year from the movies what I saw to this moment. I didn’t know what titles I should write in “Next in line”. I believe in “The Disaster Artist” and “Phantom Thread so much.

  • amy

    Watch out for Star Wars The Last Jedi come December – this will be the biggest movie of the year… Recognition for Best Picture, Best Director for Rian Johnson and Best Actress for Daisy Ridley, should be considered here from the Academy.. These films do not get recognised in the top categories enough( which includes acting) – This will be a film with a deep story , it will sound and be visually beautiful and will be the film everyone will be talking about and going to see at the movies 🙂

    • Reece

      They said the same thing about Force Awakens.

      The thing I tend to notice about Star Wars is that most of the love for the series is mostly fueled by nostalgia. Everyone loves Star Wars, they always have, which is why it will really have to be an AMAZING film to land a Best Picture nomination. In terms of quality, it would have to be on par with A New Hope, regardless of box office

    • theatregeek

      The issue will be the same as the last one: it releases at the end of the year and there will be no advance screenings in order to maintain the secrecy right up until the premiere. So odds are it will not be eligible for many precursors and not have time to build momentum. However, there are rumblings that Disney is considering a stronger push for supporting bids for both Mark Hamill and Carrie Fisher (beyond their usual tactic of banking on “below the line” nods). Im just skeptical they can make it happen since they wont be playing the traditional oscar game.

  • JMovie lover

    Still ridicuously high on Mudbound which probably wont get in. Buzz has died down

    • Sentinel666

      I agree. Netflix and it’s so high ….

    • Reece

      It’s been premiering at festivals.. It seems like a film that Netflix SERIOSULY wants to push for, and after Beasts of No Nation, they’ll be back with a new strategy. I think it could make the cut if it’s executed correctly

  • Reece

    Thoughts as of now:
    The Greatest Showman isn’t a contender imo. Looks like more of a family crowd-pleaser rather than an Oscar winner.
    Detroit and Battle of the Sexes are a few steps away from fading into obscurity. Very low support as of now, but with these two it’ll be the precursors to decide. Acclaim is somewhat lacking but enough for a nom.
    I think The Big Sick and Get Out are much higher contenders, also Molly’s Game is too.
    Just my personal opinions..

    This looks like a competitive year, and I am so hype for it.