OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Best Picture

Updated: November 20, 2017

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE

1

“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Peter Czemin

PROS:

The film won the People's Choice Award at TIFF. An all-star cast and is the type of film that is well liked and even less disliked by the masses. Fox Searchlight will be giving it a proper push.

CONS:

It's a very dark comedy and could leave some less than satisfied. Comedies are also a rarity with the Oscars.

2

“The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale

PROS:

Guillermo del Toro is back. Telluride and TIFF loved it and Fox Searchlight is rolling it out slowly to prevent peaking too early.

CONS:

Can Fox Searchlight juggle two or three main contenders for Best Picture?

3

“Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan

PROS:

Nolan's previous snubs are well known. World War II is a good place to try it again since it's a favorite with the Academy.

CONS:

Summer release and they tend to give Nolan the finger often.

4

“Lady Bird” (A24)
Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill, Scott Rudin

PROS:

Greta Gerwig's directorial debut and she's been climbing the ranks of "overdue" person in the industry. She knocks it out of the park and sells the film very well on the circuit. The reviews and box office are outstanding.

CONS:

Seems small for a Best Picture play. The screenplay may be more appropriate.

5

“Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)
Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthony McCarten, Douglas Urbanski

PROS:

If an Oscar voter loved and voted for "Lincoln," then this British cousin of it will totally be up their alley, headlined by the making of an all-time performance by Gary Oldman.

CONS:

The movie is "talky" and if you're not into history, then this can be like watching paint dry.

6

“The Post” (20th Century Fox)
Kristie Macosko Krieger, Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg

PROS:

It's a timely film that will surely capture the moment, gathering lots of feelings that resonate today.

CONS:

This could be very particular to a certain demographic of the Academy that lived through the times. The younger voter may find something else to latch onto.

7

“I, Tonya” (NEON)
Steven Rogers

PROS:

The reviews are spectacular for the film. TIFF, Middleburg, and countless other festival-goers are loving it. It may shock the cinematic world on Oscar morning.

CONS:

NEON is a new studio and we have to see if they know how to run an Oscar campaign.

8

“Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears, Rodrigo Teixeira

PROS:

Sundance premiere was strong and it's gone on to capture the love from various critics and audiences at film festivals. Was the runner-up for the People's Choice at TIFF. Outstanding cast.

CONS:

Uncomfortable subject matter. For conservatives, they may dismiss it altogether.

9

“Mudbound” (Netflix)
Carl Effenson, Sally Jo Effenson, Cassian Elwes, Charles King, Christopher Lemole, Kim Roth, Tim Zajaros

PROS:

Diverse. Strong reviews from Sundance. Has won 2 Audience Awards from film festivals (Mill Valley and Middleburg). People are responding.

CONS:

Netflix machine hasn't quite nailed how to roll these films out for Oscar attention.

10

“Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)
Ginger Sledge; John Sloss, Richard Linklater

PROS:

Opened NYFF. Received very good notices and the same crowd that liked "American Sniper," could gravitate towards this.

CONS:

There are some vocal detractors. It'll need a strong guild showing.

NEXT IN LINE

11

“Blade Runner 2049” (Warner Bros.)
Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson, Cynthia Sikes Yorkin

PROS:

Sequel to a beloved film. Helmed by the recently embraced director of "Arrival" with many respecting his outings on "Sicario" and "Prisoners." The film will likely eat up lots of the tech categories which can translate to Best Picture. This year's "Mad Max?"

CONS:

Sci-fi films and sequels can have a rough time, especially since the first wasn't embraced in the major categories. The Box Office was less than impressive.

12

“The Florida Project” (A24)
Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch, Kevin Chinoy, Andrew Duncan, Alex Saks, Francesca Silvestri, Shih-Ching Tsou

PROS:

A24 is gearing up for a big push. How far will it go with star Willem Dafoe playing the overdue card? The ones who love it, REALLY love it.

CONS:

Seems mighty small for a Best Picture run.

13

“Phantom Thread” (Focus Features)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison, JoAnne Sellar, Daniel Lupi

PROS:

An auteur director that has assembled 3-time Oscar-winner Daniel Day-Lewis in his supposed final screen role.

CONS:

Anderson can be an acquired taste and often AMPAS doesn't respond.

14

“Detroit” (Annapurna Pictures)
Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Matthew Budman, Megan Ellison, Colin Wilson

PROS:

Important, timely story helmed by the Oscar-winner of "The Hurt Locker." There are vocal fans.

CONS:

Everyone seemed to agree that the last third was problematic. Will that cost it?

15

“Get Out” (Universal Pictures)
Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm Jr., Jordan Peele

PROS:

The single best-reviewed film of the year. 99% on Rotten Tomatoes. Could Oscar like a horror comedy such as this...?

CONS:

A horror comedy in Best Picture? We'll see if it happens.

16

“Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Danny Boyle, Christian Colson, Robert Graf

PROS:

Always room for a light-hearted choice but this even has a tone of "serious" which Oscar tends to love when mixed. Telluride reviews were outstanding.

CONS:

The mainstream reviews weren't as high on it.

17

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Kathleen Kennedy, Ram Bergman

PROS:

It's an effing STAR WARS movie. Are we working our way towards a big AMPAS embracement in the future?

CONS:

Until proven otherwise...it's only "A New Hope" to carry a "Best Picture nominee" torch.

18

“Coco” (Pixar)
Darla K. Anderson

PROS:

Pixar has cracked the BP lineup before. Early word is big.

CONS:

Sliding scale has not been kind to animated films (see: "Inside Out" and "Frozen")

19

“Molly’s Game” (STX Entertainment)
Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal

PROS:

Sorkin's directorial debut. Reviews were good out of TIFF. Replaced "All the Money in the World" as the closer at AFI.

CONS:

Sounds to be more of a Chastain/Sorkin thing than a Best Picture player.

20

“Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)
Mark Johnson, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

PROS:

Alexander Payne very popular with Academy. Original story. Great cast. Venice launched it into contention.

CONS:

Is it too light hearted? More serious films coming down the pike. Telluride reviews were a bit mixed.

OTHER TOP TIER CONTENDERS

21

“Stronger” (Lionsgate)
Jake Gyllenhaal, David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Michel Litvak, Scott Silver

PROS:

Boston bombing story that will surely garner lots of emotions. Critics love it.

CONS:

Looks like a Gyllenhaal player solely but it'll need major citations along the way. Box office was not as good as they would have hoped.

22

“Wonderstruck” (Amazon Studios)
Pamela Koffler, John Sloss, Christine Vachon, Frank Murray

PROS:

The Centerpiece Selection for NYFF. Played at Cannes. Todd Haynes' snub for "Carol" still stings with many.

CONS:

Reviews were solid but it will likely need critical love on the awards circuit to make it through (and then some).

23

“mother!” (Paramount Pictures)
Scott Franklin, Ari Handel

PROS:

The reviews are divisive but the ones who love it, REALLY love it. It could garner a lot of passion.

CONS:

The film is one of the toughest watches in years. For the softer Academy member, they'll likely walk out.

24

“Victoria and Abdul” (Focus Features)
Beeban Kidron

PROS:

British period piece. Judi Dench's second round as the beloved Queen.

CONS:

It's very light and looks to be a vehicle made for only Dench.

25

“The Beguiled” (Focus Features)
Sofia Coppola, Roman Coppola, Youree Henley

PROS:

Won Best Director at Cannes. Sofia Coppola is a former directing nominee.

CONS:

Reviews were very good, just not very great, which is what it needs.

26

“Logan” (20th Century Fox)
Hutch Parker, Simon Kinberg, Lauren Shuler Donner

PROS:

One of the best reviewed of the first half of the year and sources say there DEFINITELY will be a campaign for ALL categories.

CONS:

Superhero films are hard sells.

27

“The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox)
Hugh Jackman, Laurence Mark

PROS:

Passion projects usually get people looking. Musicals are also a hot commodity.

CONS:

Early rumors are saying that it's terrible. We'll have to wait and see.

28

“All the Money in the World” (Sony Pictures)
Chris Clark, Quentin Curtis, Dan Friedkin, Mark Huffam, Ridley Scott, Bradley Thomas, Kevin J. Walsh

PROS:

Ridley Scott got back in the good graces of AMPAS with "The Martian." Is he back for good?

CONS:

The Kevin Spacey stench can seriously linger.

29

“Wind River” (Acacia Entertainment)
Elizabeth A. Bell, Peter Berg

PROS:

Sundance hit that received strong praise.

CONS:

The Harvey controversy will surely have an impact.

30

“Wonder Wheel” (Amazon Studios)
Erika Aronson, Letty Aronson, Edward Walson

PROS:

A Woody Allen film that seems to be landing on his supposed "on" year. NYFF closing was a good look for it.

CONS:

The reviews were mixed. Looks to be Winslet and/or Cinematography only.

ALSO IN CONTENTION

31

“The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios)
Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel

PROS:

One of the summer's biggest hits. A sure fire Globe player.

CONS:

Will they remember it? Seems more in line with a screenplay run.

32

“Hostiles” (Entertainment Studios)
Scott Cooper, Ken Kao, John Lesher

PROS:

A brutal, magnificently made western with a terrific ensemble. Scott Cooper is climbing the ranks.

CONS:

The film can be a hard watch, especially in its first 10 minutes.

33

“Wonder Woman” (Warner Bros.)
Charles Roven, Doborah Snyder, Zack Snyder, Richard Suckle

PROS:

Warner Bros. is going for it and they could get people to rally behind it. Will the Academy see past the genre?

CONS:

Gut check says....no but with the new membership, who knows?

34

“War for the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Fox)
Peter Chernin, Dylan Clark, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver

PROS:

Tops off as one of the best trilogies in modern movie history. A visual treat for all.

CONS:

They haven't cared before. Why would they now?

35

“The Disaster Artist” (A24)
James Franco, Evan Goldberg, Seth Rogen, James Weaver, Vince Jolivette

PROS:

Reviews are very good and it could be an unconventional choice that the new, younger Academy can embrace.

CONS:

Comedies in Best Picture are very difficult.

36

“Novitiate” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jessica Betts, Carole Peterman, Celina Rattray, Trudie Styler

PROS:

The film is a fascinating piece and is an interesting response to last year's winner "Moonlight." With some of its stars in contention (namely Melissa Leo), the film has to be somewhat in the mix and the reviews are there.

CONS:

The film is a bit smaller and will they be inclined to vote for it with bigger, louder films in the mix?

37

“The Meyerowitz Stories (New And Selected)” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Eli Bush, Scott Rudin, Lila Yacoub

PROS:

Opened to very good notices for Baumbach. Netflix giving it a push.

CONS:

An Adam Sandler film in Best Picture? Until proven otherwise. Netflix too.

38

“Beauty and the Beast” (Walt Disney Pictures)
David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman

PROS:

It's the highest grossing film of 2017. Walt Disney is giving it a hefty campaign and believes it can get a huge boost supported by the Globes and even BAFTA.

CONS:

The critics' prizes are not going to really help it when it comes to Best Picture prizes. It seems like a huge longshot.

39

“Breathe” (Bleecker Street)
Jonathan Cavendish

PROS:

A film about a disability with Andrew Garfield. Bleecker Street feels confident.

CONS:

At best, it's a Garfield/Foy play. It'll be hard beyond that with the split reviews.

40

“First They Killed My Father” (Netflix)
Angelina Jolie, Rithy Panh

PROS:

Netflix has sent out screeners and people are discovering it now. With it in the hunt for Foreign Language film, could they get behind the Best Picture run?

CONS:

Netflix seems focused on getting "Mudbound" a Best Picture nomination. Can they focus on two things?

CLICK THE CATEGORY TO SEE THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | 
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
FOREIGN LANGUAGE | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE |

 

  • Reece

    I don’t get why people are lowering Downsizing.. The reviews are great so far, and it has a December release

    • Reece

      I don’t think that Battle of the Sexes can make it that far to a Best Picture nom. The reviews are decent, and it has a September release. This one, I’d say, relies on the box office. The more people watch it, higher chance they’ll remember or care about it.

  • Michael

    Curious why Florida Project is so low. I get your cons but it has a 91 on metacrtitic. I know critics aren’t everything but it’s in the top 4 or 5 and you’ve placed it 22nd below films that have scores in the 50’s….Also A24 is a pretty hot studio right now.

  • Robotman

    I hope Dunkirk wins Best Picture.

  • Bill

    At this point, I think it’s time to stop fucking around with Three Billboards and saying it’s just going to compete in the screenplay and acting categories. I mean the reviews and responses are stellar. It could certainly go for a picture nomination.

    Also stop denying Get Out. People are still talking about it. It will last the whole year and critics circles are going to nominate it and boost it. Don’t underestimate Gold Derby.

  • Sentinel666

    My predictions :

    1.”The Disaster Artist”
    2.”Phantom Thread”
    3.”Last Flag Flying”
    4.”The Florida Project”
    5.”Call Me By Your Name”
    6.”Get Out”
    7.”Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri”
    8.”The Shape of Water”
    9.”The Greatest Showman”

    Next in line :

    10.”Wind River”
    11.”You Were Never Really Here”
    12.”Darkest Hour”
    13.”Dunkirk”
    14.”The Post”
    15.”Downsizing”
    16.”The Beguiled”
    17.”All the Money in the World”
    18.”mother!”
    19.”Marshall”
    20.”Wonder”

    • Reece

      Those are some funky predictions, mate

      • Sentinel666

        Maybe some, but I didn’t see all of these films and I don’t know how good they are. I suggest reviews, awards and predictions on this site and other sites. I watched “Dunkirk”, “The Beguiled” and “Get Out”. “Get Out” is a really strong contender and I think that’a really really great movie, the best of the year from the movies what I saw to this moment. I didn’t know what titles I should write in “Next in line”. I believe in “The Disaster Artist” and “Phantom Thread so much.

  • amy

    Watch out for Star Wars The Last Jedi come December – this will be the biggest movie of the year… Recognition for Best Picture, Best Director for Rian Johnson and Best Actress for Daisy Ridley, should be considered here from the Academy.. These films do not get recognised in the top categories enough( which includes acting) – This will be a film with a deep story , it will sound and be visually beautiful and will be the film everyone will be talking about and going to see at the movies 🙂

    • Reece

      They said the same thing about Force Awakens.

      The thing I tend to notice about Star Wars is that most of the love for the series is mostly fueled by nostalgia. Everyone loves Star Wars, they always have, which is why it will really have to be an AMAZING film to land a Best Picture nomination. In terms of quality, it would have to be on par with A New Hope, regardless of box office

    • theatregeek

      The issue will be the same as the last one: it releases at the end of the year and there will be no advance screenings in order to maintain the secrecy right up until the premiere. So odds are it will not be eligible for many precursors and not have time to build momentum. However, there are rumblings that Disney is considering a stronger push for supporting bids for both Mark Hamill and Carrie Fisher (beyond their usual tactic of banking on “below the line” nods). Im just skeptical they can make it happen since they wont be playing the traditional oscar game.

  • JMovie lover

    Still ridicuously high on Mudbound which probably wont get in. Buzz has died down

    • Sentinel666

      I agree. Netflix and it’s so high ….

    • Reece

      It’s been premiering at festivals.. It seems like a film that Netflix SERIOSULY wants to push for, and after Beasts of No Nation, they’ll be back with a new strategy. I think it could make the cut if it’s executed correctly

  • Reece

    Thoughts as of now:
    The Greatest Showman isn’t a contender imo. Looks like more of a family crowd-pleaser rather than an Oscar winner.
    Detroit and Battle of the Sexes are a few steps away from fading into obscurity. Very low support as of now, but with these two it’ll be the precursors to decide. Acclaim is somewhat lacking but enough for a nom.
    I think The Big Sick and Get Out are much higher contenders, also Molly’s Game is too.
    Just my personal opinions..

    This looks like a competitive year, and I am so hype for it.

  • Bryce

    The Post, Blade Runner 2049, Phantom Thread, Last Flag Flying, Murder on the Orient Express, Marshall, The Snowman, and Star Wars The Last Jedi are serious contenders, but I’ve made my top 10 with only film that have been release and/or have reviews already.

    Call Me By Your Name
    Dunkirk
    Get Out
    Logan
    Molly’s Game
    Mudbound
    The Big Sick
    The Disaster Artist
    The Shape of Water
    War for the Planet of the Apes

    Other films that have been release/have reviews already that are strong contenders are…

    Baby Driver
    Battle of the Sexes
    Detroit
    Meyerowitz Stories
    Mother!
    Stronger
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO
    Wind River
    Wonder Woman

    As of right now, I have The Shape of Water surprising everybody this year and winning Best Picture.

  • Reece

    Wonder, Wonderstruck, Wonder Woman, Wonder Wheel

    Only 1 can get a nomination.

    • Calvin Damon

      Same with Logan, Logan Lucky, and Lucky

  • Andres Gtz

    Hmmm… Why’s Battle of the Sexes that high?
    CMBYN is the frontrunner for adapted screenplay, that alone should make it in the top 3.
    Blade Runner has now premiered for critics and it looks as a top 10 – 12 contender, specially with its technical achievements, maybe is the sci-fi film of this year.
    Mudbound is ridiculously high… is from Netflix, which hasn’t had any luck with the Oscars ever.
    Lady Bird has proven it should be considered more seriously.
    The Post choice of no. 1 just seems as a justification of a frontrunner because it hasn’t been screened yet, but is very unlikely that film actually wins.

  • Baggins

    I know we are months away, but I’m already campaigning for this years ACCAs. Since I know it won’t get a best picture Oscar nomination it deserves, for your deepest consideration at the ACCAs,

    BABY DRIVER
    Best Picture
    Best Director – Edgar Wright
    Best Supporting Actor – Jamie Foxx
    Best Original Screenplay
    Best Cinematography
    Best Film Editing
    Best Sound Editing
    Best Sound Mixing
    Best Stuntwork

    • Best Stuntwork is not even a category, nor has it ever been since, like the early years of the academy.

      • Baggins

        I’m talking about Clayton’s Community awards. although it’s ridiculous that the academy doesn’t have a category for stuntwork

  • Sentinel666

    my predictions (2) :

    1. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    2. “Lady Bird”
    3. “The Disaster Artist”
    4. “Phantom Thread”
    5. “Call Me By Your Name
    6. “The Florida Project”
    7. “The Shape of Water”
    8. “Get Out”
    9. “Last Flag Flying”

    next in line:

    10. “Wind River”
    11. “Darkest Hour”
    12. “Downsizing”
    13. “All the Money in the World”
    14. “The Post”
    15. “I, Tonya”
    16. “Novitiate”
    17. “You Were Never Really Here”
    18. “Detroit”
    19. “Dunkirk”
    20. “The Big Sick”

  • Baggins

    my Best Picture Picks as of right now in Alphabetical Order are

    Bladerunner 2049
    Darkest Hour
    Detroit
    Dunkirk
    The Greatest Showman
    I, Tonya
    Mudbound
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

    will keep updating as you are.

  • Eric Benzema

    The Boston Film Festival closed out its 33rd annual event with six awards to Sir John Hurt’s final film Damascus Cover: Best Film, Best Director (Daniel Berk), Best Actor (Jonathan Rhys Meyers), Best Actress (Olivia Thirlby), Best Cinematography (Chloe Thompson) and Best Ensemble Cast.

  • Detroit needs to be in the nominees for Best Picture. It’s got an uncomfortably timely message that everybody in America needs to hear, has plenty of effective performances to get the feel across, and Kathryn Bigelow’s direction is as hard-edged and distressing as it felt to be there. By far one of the most effective movies of the decade.

  • MALLAURY LABULLE

    1- The Post
    2- Darkest Hour
    3- The Shape of Water
    4- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    5- Dunkirk
    6- Call Me By Your Name
    7- Mundbound
    8- Battle of the Sexes
    9- Last Flag Flying
    10- Blade Runner 2049

  • Walshy

    Battle of the Sexes
    Blade Runner 2049
    Call Me By Your Name
    Darkest Hour
    Dunkirk
    Last Flag Flying
    Phantom Thread
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

  • How do you know The Post is still filming? According to Movie Insider, it has been in post-production since the end of August.

  • oscarstan

    the florida project is in

  • theatregeek

    How the hell can you have Lady Bird down in 31st place? It should easily get into Lead Actress, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay. If you think itll miss the top 10, ok. But in 31? Below War for the Planet of the Apes. You crazy.

    I always keep in mind which movies can score with PGA, DGA, and SAG ensemble. This year that looks like Call me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, The Post, The Shape of Water. So based on stats, Best Pic winner is likely one of those 4. If Dunkirk somehow manages an impossible SAG nomination than it could turn into something unstoppable. Until that hail mary happens, its Call me by Your Name vs. Shape of Water (Darkest Hour is too traditional and will be seen as jsut an Oldman showcase, The Post will debut too late to build momentum, Im skeptical Three Billboards will get McDonagh in for director).

    • Sentinel666

      “Darkest Hour” can be nominated in acting categories only, in my opinion.

      • Reece

        If The Imitation Game can make it, so can Darkest Hour

        • Sentinel666

          You’re right, but I think that will be nominated in acting and make-up only. “The Imitation game” is a very good film. I don’t know how good is “Darkest Hour”, but it looks like normal historical film with the strong perfomances.

          • People who have actually seen it say it’s suprisingly “cinematic”. DOP Bruno Delbonnel and the design team are strong contenders for nominations.

  • Reece

    What makes this year harder than ever to predict is the new membership. Who knows how they’re gonna pick, and how differently they will pick..

    My list as of now:
    1) The Post
    2) Call Me By Your Name
    3) Dunkirk

    4) The Shape of Water (Guillermo is kinda “eh” with The Academy)
    5) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    6) Darkest Hour (definitely a nom, no question. but its not a winner, so I’m putting it on the list, but towards the bottom)

    7) Mudbound (Netflix is tricky, but I think they’ll handle this one carefully)
    8) The Big Sick (On par with The Kids Are All Right in all the right places. Could sneak imo)
    9) Molly’s Game (Good reviews so far, Sorkin is beloved, and it was shifted to a December release. Only thing is STX)

    Outliers: Last Flag Flying, Coco, All The Money in the world, Lady Bird, Get Out, Downsizing, and (call me crazy if you will) Logan.

    NOTE: Only The Brave is getting serious acclaim. Could it sneak in somewhere big?

  • FrankQB

    I know it’s not on the radar, but I haven’t highly recommend “Maudie”. Incredible film.

    • michaeldal65

      Two fantastic performances too. Wish it hadn’t been released so early. It deserves strong consideration.

      • Franco

        Agree, Sally Hawkins is always good, but “Maudie” is the best Performance of her career so far.

  • michaeldal65

    From everything I’ve read, Vittorio Storaro’s cinematography in Wonder Wheel is outstanding.

  • Jared

    I think this list needs to be updated to show the impact of the Harvey Weinstein rape charges. The oscar won’t want to acknowledge anything his company released (wind river) or anything made by people that defended him (wonder wheel)

  • Cornelius Buttersby

    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a smart #1 pick – unassuming but widely loved, weighty (narrative with more heft than La La Land) but not self-important, will inspired a lot of ‘hey, I loved that’ and so long as it flies under the radar very little ‘doesn’t live up to the hype’.

    After it, a number feel safe – I know it’s too early for ‘locks’, but as safe as anything can be at this time of year.
    The Shape of Water will have critical support, and factor into director/acting/screenplay/techs, but genre bias and early murmurs of backlash towards it will I think keep it from a win.

    Dunkirk is great for a nomination, but it’s highly unlikely to gather screenplay support (recent winners have tended to win Screenplay, or an acting category) and its early release means it’s already facing backlash.

    Darkest Hour is fine, Academy-accessible work from top to bottom that should slide in without drama in a relatively passion-less year, but it lacks an edge or ‘special’ quality that tends to appear in recent winners.

    Call Me by Your Name will inspire the critical fervor and passion votes necessary to get in for a nomination, but after Moonlight last year and with already divisive rumblings (age disparity, extreme hype leaving some disappointed) I don’t think it’ll wind up the winner (watch out though, with a screenplay with and a potential eventual play in Supporting Actor, it could surprise).

    The Post is hard to call ‘safe’ since it hasn’t premiered, but Spielberg is a consistent filmmaker when working with baity material, the cast is to die for and will likely appeal to actors, and it’ll be called timely due to the current war on truth – plus it’s inevitable that about two post-TIFF/Telluride/Venice films will get in.

    After them, I would call The Florida Project the next best bet. The film is a passion vote waiting to happen – already setting a lot of critics on fire on social media and inspiring ‘best film of the year’ responses. With the combination of likely Supporting Actor frontrunner status, potential for Screenplay/Director nods, and a dearth of passion filling out the rest of the ballot, I think this will be quite a drama-less get.

    It’s after those seven that things bottom out, and it becomes trickier to divine the rest of the category.

    We know that statistically speaking, another late-breaker will take up a spot a la The Revenant/The Big Short, Selma/American Sniper, Les Miserables/Zero Dark Thirty, etc. On average there have been two a year in the era of the expanded ballot. Contenders this year include Phantom Thread, The Greatest Showman, and All the Money in the World. The Phantom Thread has flown so under the radar and collected so little buzz (by way of a lack of footage and information) that I think it goes the way of Silence, or Unbroken, and misses. Either or the other two could then make it, with my money on All the Money in the World based on both films’ trailers. Expect an acting play (likely Spacey) to come along for the ride or contend, as well as Screenplay and maybe a down the line tally. Ultimately though, bet on one of them – a latebreaker disrupting the season’s status quo happens far more often than not.

    I know many will disagree, but based on zeitgeist appeal, originality, and time to settle in critical favour, I think Get Out will rally on critics noms and settle into a spot in Best Picture (perhaps the final spot), even if like Selma it only brings in one nomination (Screenplay or maybe Editing). This will be a contentious matter among predictors, but the film may end up a critics’ cause like Mad Max: Fury Road or Her before it.

    Among the rest of the contenders, there’s I, Tonya – arguably the frontrunner in Supporting Actress and a potential winner for Best Actress. The film’s chances will live or die on the strength of NEON as a newcomer – if NEON campaigns well, expect it to surprise with acting wins, maybe end up in Picture, Screenplay, Editing, and even Director. If, on the other hand, the campaign doesn’t ignite, it’ll be limited to acting.

    Mudbound could be a top-to-bottom contender, but buzz is low and Netflix is inexperienced. Though I hope otherwise, I expect it’ll be a high profile miss, maybe coming away with just an Adapted Screenplay nomination, if that. This season will serve as a litmus test for the potential of future Netflix contenders.

    Blade Runner 2049 could ride into a nomination on the wind of significant below-the-line support, but the more I think about it the less likely this seems. The film is quite divisive, more tech-heavy than acting-heavy and fits the bill of a Skyfall/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo/Interstellar-style 5 nominations and a couple of wins but no Best Picture spot.

    Last Flag Flying could appeal to the Academy old-guard, but it’ll be fighting against buzzier contenders and a middling critical opening. It could Nebraska and sneak back up (especially with room for Screenplay+Acting categories), but for now it’s not a safe bet.

    Lady Bird inspires passion, and there are those like Anne Thompson of Indiewire who believe strongly in its chances, but with a tight Best Actress race likely to leave Ronan on the outside looking in (especially since a nomination here would give her a track record akin to Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle, which doesn’t figure to me), it makes more sense to me as an eventual miss.

    Battle of the Sexes’ surprisingly middling reviews, oddly-early release date, and diminishing buzz seem primed to make it this year’s Steve Jobs/Saving Mr. Banks style contender – perfectly fine, but left in the dust for little discernible reason.

    Victoria & Abdul, The Big Sick, and The Disaster Artist could all surge in the late-game, but my current feeling is each will be left out largely due to narrative – Victoria & Abdul won’t be seen as a contender outside of Dench and the designs, The Big Sick will be under-estimated, and The Disaster Artist won’t be taken seriously (especially as A24 also has The Florida Project and Lady Bird to contend with).

    All of this to say that I think the category will ultimately look like:

    All the Money in the World (or The Greatest Showman)
    Call Me by Your Name
    Darkest Hour
    Dunkirk
    The Florida Project
    Get Out
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    • Reece

      I feel like “backlash” is a harsh word but I agree with everything else

    • Emi Grant

      Despite my love for it, I’m feeling confindent in saying that Get Out will miss

      • Franco

        Get out’s strongest chance should be in Screenplay, that was the best thing about the film, it was a fresh and original story. Nothing else Oscar worthy there

        • Emi Grant

          I strongly disagree since Kaaluya and Alison Williams had great performances. I’d say that in a weaker year Kaaluya would totally find a way to sneak in.

          • Franco

            Then we are not in Disagreement, they were indeed both good and I liked both of them very much, and in a weaker year yes, but The acting Categories, especially Best Actress, Best Actor, and Supporting Actress this year could have 10 slots and all worthy. The competition is FIERCE this year in the Acting Categories, Many great performances won’t even make the cut.

            • Emi Grant

              Well, I’m really glad that we won’t be disagreeing. This year has many posible nominees, the race is going to be pretty tight for sure.

    • At this point I agree with this list, though I have a feeling All the Money in the World probably won’t impress.

  • Cornelius Buttersby

    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a smart #1 pick – unassuming but widely loved, weighty (narrative with more heft than La La Land) but not self-important, will inspired a lot of ‘hey, I loved that’ and so long as it flies under the radar very little ‘doesn’t live up to the hype’.

    After it, a number feel safe – I know it’s too early for ‘locks’, but as safe as anything can be at this time of year.
    The Shape of Water will have critical support, and factor into director/acting/screenplay/techs, but genre bias and early murmurs of backlash towards it will I think keep it from a win.

    Dunkirk is great for a nomination, but it’s highly unlikely to gather screenplay support (recent winners have tended to win Screenplay, or an acting category) and its early release means it’s already facing backlash.

    Darkest Hour is fine, Academy-accessible work from top to bottom that should slide in without drama in a relatively passion-less year, but it lacks an edge or ‘special’ quality that tends to appear in recent winners.

    Call Me by Your Name will inspire the critical fervor and passion votes necessary to get in for a nomination, but after Moonlight last year and with already divisive rumblings (age disparity, extreme hype leaving some disappointed) I don’t think it’ll wind up the winner (watch out though, with a screenplay with and a potential eventual play in Supporting Actor, it could surprise).

    The Post is hard to call ‘safe’ since it hasn’t premiered, but Spielberg is a consistent filmmaker when working with baity material, the cast is to die for and will likely appeal to actors, and it’ll be called timely due to the current war on truth – plus it’s inevitable that about two post-TIFF/Telluride/Venice films will get in.

    After them, I would call The Florida Project the next best bet. The film is a passion vote waiting to happen – already setting a lot of critics on fire on social media and inspiring ‘best film of the year’ responses. With the combination of likely Supporting Actor frontrunner status, potential for Screenplay/Director nods, and a dearth of passion filling out the rest of the ballot, I think this will be quite a drama-less get.

    It’s after those seven that things bottom out, and it becomes trickier to divine the rest of the category.

    We know that statistically speaking, another late-breaker will take up a spot a la The Revenant/The Big Short, Selma/American Sniper, Les Miserables/Zero Dark Thirty, etc. On average there have been two a year in the era of the expanded ballot. Contenders this year include Phantom Thread, The Greatest Showman, and All the Money in the World. The Phantom Thread has flown so under the radar and collected so little buzz (by way of a lack of footage and information) that I think it goes the way of Silence, or Unbroken, and misses. Either or the other two could then make it, with my money on All the Money in the World based on both films’ trailers. Expect an acting play (likely Spacey) to come along for the ride or contend, as well as Screenplay and maybe a down the line tally. Ultimately though, bet on one of them – a latebreaker disrupting the season’s status quo happens far more often than not.

    I know many will disagree, but based on zeitgeist appeal, originality, and time to settle in critical favour, I think Get Out will rally on critics noms and settle into a spot in Best Picture (perhaps the final spot), even if like Selma it only brings in one nomination (Screenplay or maybe Editing). This will be a contentious matter among predictors, but the film may end up a critics’ cause like Mad Max: Fury Road or Her before it.

    Among the rest of the contenders, there’s I, Tonya – arguably the frontrunner in Supporting Actress and a potential winner for Best Actress. The film’s chances will live or die on the strength of NEON as a newcomer – if NEON campaigns well, expect it to surprise with acting wins, maybe end up in Picture, Screenplay, Editing, and even Director. If, on the other hand, the campaign doesn’t ignite, it’ll be limited to acting.

    Mudbound could be a top-to-bottom contender, but buzz is low and Netflix is inexperienced. Though I hope otherwise, I expect it’ll be a high profile miss, maybe coming away with just an Adapted Screenplay nomination, if that. This season will serve as a litmus test for the potential of future Netflix contenders.

    Blade Runner 2049 could ride into a nomination on the wind of significant below-the-line support, but the more I think about it the less likely this seems. The film is quite divisive, more tech-heavy than acting-heavy and fits the bill of a Skyfall/Girl with the Dragon Tattoo/Interstellar-style 5 nominations and a couple of wins but no Best Picture spot.

    Last Flag Flying could appeal to the Academy old-guard, but it’ll be fighting against buzzier contenders and a middling critical opening. It could Nebraska and sneak back up (especially with room for Screenplay+Acting categories), but for now it’s not a safe bet.

    Lady Bird inspires passion, and there are those like Anne Thompson of Indiewire who believe strongly in its chances, but with a tight Best Actress race likely to leave Ronan on the outside looking in (especially since a nomination here would give her a track record akin to Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle, which doesn’t figure to me), it makes more sense to me as an eventual miss.

    Battle of the Sexes’ surprisingly middling reviews, oddly-early release date, and diminishing buzz seem primed to make it this year’s Steve Jobs/Saving Mr. Banks style contender – perfectly fine, but left in the dust for little discernible reason.

    Victoria & Abdul, The Big Sick, and The Disaster Artist could all surge in the late-game, but my current feeling is each will be left out largely due to narrative – Victoria & Abdul won’t be seen as a contender outside of Dench and the designs, The Big Sick will be under-estimated, and The Disaster Artist won’t be taken seriously (especially as A24 also has The Florida Project and Lady Bird to contend with).

    All of this to say that I think the category will ultimately look like:

    All the Money in the World (or The Greatest Showman)
    Call Me by Your Name
    Darkest Hour
    Dunkirk
    The Florida Project
    Get Out
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

  • If you pay attention (check Metacritic and the average ratings on RT), the critical reception for Blade Runner 2049, although undeniably favorable, is NOWHERE near as enthusiastic as that for Gravity or Mad Max: Fury Road, and its mediocre domestic earnings make the so-so 154 million grossed by Miller’s film look like Titanic in comparison.

    BR2049 might be closer to District 9, numbers-wise (81 MC, 116 million gross, 90% RT), but Blomkamp’s film had the sociopolitical allegory going for it.

    A science-fiction film needs much more than just “very good reviews” and barely “decent” grosses in order to become a Best Picture contender (which is unfair, btw).

    I think BR2049 is out.

  • If you pay attention (check Metacritic and the average ratings on RT), the critical reception for Blade Runner 2049, although undeniably favorable, is NOWHERE near as enthusiastic as that for Gravity or Mad Max: Fury Road, and its mediocre domestic earnings make the so-so 154 million grossed by Miller’s film look like Titanic in comparison.

    BR2049 might be closer to District 9, numbers-wise (81 MC, 116 million gross, 90% RT), but Blomkamp’s film had the sociopolitical allegory going for it.

    A science-fiction film needs much more than just “very good reviews” and barely “decent” grosses in order to become a Best Picture contender (which is unfair, btw).

    I think BR2049 is out.

  • If you pay attention (check Metacritic and the average ratings on RT), the critical reception for Blade Runner 2049, although undeniably favorable, is NOWHERE near as enthusiastic as that for Gravity or Mad Max: Fury Road, and its mediocre domestic earnings make the so-so 154 million grossed by Miller’s film look like Titanic in comparison.

    BR2049 might be closer to District 9, numbers-wise (81 MC, 116 million gross, 90% RT), but Blomkamp’s film had the sociopolitical allegory going for it.

    A science-fiction film needs much more than just “very good reviews” and barely “decent” grosses in order to become a Best Picture contender (which is unfair, btw).

    I think BR2049 is out.

  • Reece

    Where did you hear about The Post’s production issues? (not meaning to sound sassy, just curious)

  • Sentinel666

    my predictions (3):

    1.”Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    2.”The Shape of Water”
    3.”Call Me By Your Name”
    4.”The Florida Project”
    5.”Lady Bird”
    6.”The Disaster Artist”
    7.”Get Out”
    8.”Phantom Thread”
    9.”I, Tonya”

    next in line:

    10.”The Big Sick”
    11.”Downsizing”
    12.”Darkest Hour”
    13.”Dunkirk”
    14.”Blade Runner 2049″
    15.”Battle of the Sexes”
    16.”Last Flag Flying”
    17.”The Post”
    18.”Detroit”
    19.”All the Money in the World”
    20.”Molly’s Game”

  • Agent42318

    In my opinion the best films to come out thus far in 2017 are Logan, Blade Runner 2049, and Dunkirk. I mean it isn’t even close.

  • Tee

    As much as I want it, I can’t risk buying hype for mother!, Logan, and Blade Runner 2049.

    1. Darkest Hour
    2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    3. Mudbound
    4. Dunkirk
    5. The Shape of Water
    6. Call Me By Your Name
    7. The Post
    8. I, Tonya
    9. The Greatest Showman
    10. Last Flag Flying

  • Anonymous

    The top 30:

    1. Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. The Shape of Water
    3. Call Me By Your Name

    4. Dunkirk
    5. The Post
    6. Mudbound

    7. Lady Bird
    8. The Florida Project
    9. I, Tonya

    10. Darkest Hour
    11. Phantom Thread
    12. Battle of the Sexes

    13. Last Flag Flying
    14. Novitate
    15. Detroit

    16. Blade Runner 2049
    17. Get Out
    18. The Big Sick

    19. The Greatest Showman
    20. All the Money in the World
    21. Stronger

    22. Molly’s Game
    23. Downsizing
    24. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

    25. The Disaster Artist
    26. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    27. Wonderstruck

    28. Coco
    29. mother!
    30. Wonder Wheel

  • All the “Oscar Movies” this year have been flopping left and right, and this season is either going to trend towards more mainstream films or almost none at all. I’ll have to reevaluate later but for now I’ll assume the former:

    Top 10 or so (alphabetical)
    Blade Runner 2049
    The Big Sick
    Call me By Your Name
    Darkest Hour
    Dunkirk
    Get Out
    Last Flag Flying
    Logan
    Shape of Water
    Three Billboards

    Logan is the most likely of these to leave, but it’s based on if any of the unreleased movies succeed or break out. I want Molly’s Game and Disaster Artist to get in but if they don’t make money they aren’t going to get in. Moreover if Shape of Water or Darkest Hour flop they are probably out as well. (Call Me By Your Name is safe though, technically this race’s “frontrunner” I guess)

  • thatguyagain

    Kind of ridiculous that the release schedule is so backloaded these days that even in the very end of October the vast majority of us will not have been able to see the movies that are supposed front runners.

    Of the movies I’ve seen that are mentioned, very few stand out as lasting if the expected fall/winter releases really are as good as people expect.

    The only three releases that really stand out so far in terms of quality are Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, and Get Out.
    Does anyone really expect Logan or Wonder Woman to get in the major categories? MAYBE Jackman for Logan, but that’s it IMO.

  • Baggins

    My current choices as of right now in alphabetical order

    Bladerunner 2049
    Darkest Hour
    Detroit
    Dunkirk
    I, Tonya
    Last Flag Flying
    Mudbound
    Phantom Thread
    The Shape of Water
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

  • hepwa

    Call Me by Your Name = an uncomfortable love story??
    Shape Of Water = woman f***s a fish – award-worthy!
    Ain’t that America.

    • Emi Grant

      The cons used to be that Shape Of Water might be too weird for voters.

      • Franco

        It is INDEED too weird for Voters, and the general Audience, the average film goer will probably HATE it. I heard people around me at the Screening say it was Terrible, I was not in disagreement. If they want to go the WERID route, “Mother’ is far more Deserving, in All Categories.

        • Emi Grant

          Story aside, what would you say about the technical aspects and performances of the film?

    • Lamar

      I fail to understand your concern. If your concern is that no one thinks that Call Me By Your Name is award-worthy then that is wrong. With a 98% on RT, 95 on Metacritic, and the number 8 spot on the very list you commented on…I think you’re mistaken. Unless you’re trying to imply that America is homophobic in regards to CMBYN…which is also untrue since the main issue people have with the movie is the age difference between the two main characters.

  • AndreTheTurtle

    Kind of surprised you have Get Out as high as you do. Haha.

  • Anonymous

    Clear top 3:

    1. Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. The Shape of Water
    3. Call Me By Your Name (Outstanding reviews and provocative, should be higher)

    Why is Darkest Hour at #3? AVERAGE reviews/not unique and also Last Flag Flying at #7, big mistake. They should be in the 9-15 range.

    Smart move on Lady Bug.

    • Emi Grant

      Gary Oldman, Joe Wright, the reviews might improve over wide release, same with LFF.

      • Franco

        Darkest Hour is a Solid Oscar type film, Oldman is OUTSTANDING, as well the Production design, script, score, and Direction, and supporting cast are all very good.

        • Emi Grant

          That’s great to hear, I’m pretty excited for it

  • Reece

    Thoughts on the race as of November 2nd:
    -Last Flag Flying’s reviews are very divisive. I think it will miss the lineup for BP, but may appear in acting categories.
    -All the Money in the World and Baby Driver are out (even if Baby Driver wasn’t a big contender). Kevin Spacey controversy will weigh them down significantly.
    -I think people aren’t taking Molly’s Game nearly as seriously as they should. Reviews are good, Sorkin writing, great ensemble. I don’t know why *everyone* is casting it out..
    -I feel like Hostiles is going to sneak its way into the race, without any warning.

    Top 10:
    1) The Post
    2) Three Billboards
    3) Dunkirk
    4) Shape of Water
    5) Call Me By Your Name
    6) Darkest Hour
    7) Get Out (It’s gonna appear in the guilds, people LOVE this movie)
    8) Mudbound
    9) Lady Bird
    10) Molly’s Game

    Others:
    Blade Runner 2049 (could EASILY sneak in)
    Coco (EARLY reviews have it at 82 on Metacritic. I don’t trust early reviews though.. Spotlight started at 76, ended at a 93. Big Short at 63, ended at 81. Reviews can change, we’ll wait and see)
    Disaster Artist (might be too niche)
    Downsizing
    I, Tonya (NEON is too risky imo)
    Phantom Thread

    • Franco

      Last Flag Flying was solidly acted, I can’t see Bryan Cranston in the Supporting Category, because he has More Screen time then Steve Carroll, the whole cast is strong and the Direction as well, however I felt a bit dissatisfied with the script, It COPS out in my opinion, and turns what could’ve been a great film, into just a good one.

  • Anonymous

    The top 18:

    1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. The Shape of Water
    3. Call Me By Your Name
    4. Dunkirk
    5. The Post

    6. Mudbound
    7. Lady Bird
    8. The Florida Project
    9. I, Tonya
    10. Darkest Hour

    11. Phantom Thread
    12. Last Flag Flying
    13. Battle of the Sexes
    14. Detroit
    15. Molly’s Game

    16. Blade Runner 2049
    17. Get Out
    18. The Big Sick

  • Demetra

    1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. The Shape of Water
    3. Call Me by Your Name
    4. Dunkirk
    5. Mudbound
    6. Lady Bird
    7. Darkest Hour
    8. The Post

  • Franco

    The Shape of Water, is a strange film, with good acting and cinematography, but I just don’t think that there is Anything Award Worthy There. Sally Hawkins Should be included for the film “Maudie” in Which she is Excellent, not this one.

  • Anonymous

    The top 24:

    1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    2. The Shape of Water
    3. Call Me By Your Name

    4. Dunkirk
    5. The Post
    6. Mudbound

    7. Lady Bird
    8. The Florida Project
    9. Darkest Hour

    10. I, Tonya
    11. Phantom Thread
    12. Last Flag Flying

    13. Battle of the Sexes
    14. Detroit
    15. Get Out

    16. The Big Sick
    17. Blade Runner 2049
    18. Molly’s Game

    19. Stronger
    20. Novitiate
    21. The Meyerowitz Stories

    22. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
    23. All the Money in the World
    24. The Disaster Artist

  • Jonathan

    “Wind River” is now being campaigned fully by Acacia Entertainment now.

  • Patrick Downing

    You listed Maudie under comedy in the Golden Globes?

  • Last Flag Flying: lukewarm reviews, flopped on limited release (probably won’t hit the 1 million mark in the US). It’s not getting nominated.

    • Jonathan

      It has 76% on Rotten Tomatoes (Certified Fresh). American Sniper had 72%. I think it has a shot – but you never know

  • theatregeek

    The Post will get in. I don’t think it’ll be a BP juggernaut like some past Spielberg films, and Im not confident he can get in with some decidedly “un-flashy” and subdued direction. But the film makes you want to root for it, its cultural relevance is impossible to ignore. Itll be safe nominee like Bridge of Spies, but I dont think it can ultimately win.

  • Fabio Ruiz

    I don’t think Blade Runner 2049 will or should be nominated. Too weak a movie for that. Detroit is much more than it and there are others I haven’t seen yet, like The Post, The Florida Project, Phantom Thread.

  • Anonymous

    The Top 27:

    1. Lady Bird
    2. The Shape of Water
    3. Call Me By Your Name
    4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    5. Dunkirk
    6. The Post
    7. Mudbound
    8. I, Tonya
    9. Darkest Hour

    10. The Florida Project
    11. Phantom Thread
    12. Last Flag Flying
    13. Detroit
    14. Get Out
    15. Battle of the Sexes
    16. Blade Runner 2049
    17. Molly’s Game
    18. The Big Sick

    19. Stronger
    20. Coco
    21. The Disaster Artist
    22. Downsizing
    23. Hostiles
    24. Novitiate
    25. The Meyerowitz Stories
    26. All the Money in the World
    27. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

  • Emi Grant

    I feel like when it comes to who’ll eventually win, it’s a 4 horse race between Three Billboards, The Post, The Shape Of Water, and Call Me By Your Name.

  • theatregeek

    After seeing some more of these:

    In-it-to-win-it
    1. Three Billboards
    2. Call me by your Name
    3. Shape of Water

    Potential Upsets
    4. Lady Bird
    5. Dunkirk
    6. The Post

    Feel Safe, But Cant Win
    7. Get Out
    8. Darkest Hour
    9. Florida Project

    Fighting for a Spot
    10. Blade Runner 2049
    11. Mudbound
    12. I, Tonya
    13. Phantom Pain
    14. The Big Sick