PREDICTIONS: Golden Globes 2018 (HFPA)

This is the official place to see the latest GOLDEN GLOBES for the given year.  All predictions are written and recorded by Editor-in-Chief and Owner of AwardsCircuit.com, Clayton Davis.  All predictions are made based on film pedigree, reviews, “Oscar buzz,” and reactions from critics, pundits, and actual Oscar voters.

Click on all the category labels (below) and read the in-depth analysis on each of the 24 category races.

2018 GOLDEN GLOBES FINAL PREDICTIONS

Updated: January 4, 2018

Best Picture (Drama)
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Dunkirk”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”

The HFPA has an opportunity to tilt the scale in a film’s favor with any of the five films.  “The Shape of Water” seems to be the type of film that the European crowd can get behind, as is the case with “Dunkirk.”  But the pure and timely American stories of “The Post” and “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” are sure to get some love.  We’re going with the one that leads with nominations and seems to have the upswing.

PREDICTION: “The Shape of Water”

Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
“The Disaster Artist”
“Get Out”
“The Greatest Showman”
“I, Tonya”
“Lady Bird”

This could be an opportunity for “Lady Bird” to lay its stake on the race but there seems to be a tide shifting a bit towards “I, Tonya” that can pull it off in the end.  The love for “Get Out” is palpable with critics but with some HFPA members protesting its Comedy or Musical inclusion, it likely won’t get enough votes to pull it off.  Throwing this one to Greta Gerwig’s nearly perfect film is too good of a story to pass up and she’ll likely just squeak by.

PREDICTION: “Lady Bird”

Best Actor (Drama)
Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Tom Hanks, “The Post”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

There have been disparaging remarks by Gary Oldman against the Hollywood Foreign Press Association which leads many to believe they’ll hold it against him when it comes to the ballot.  And while the next logical choice seems to be Timothee Chalamet’s critically loved turn in “Call Me by Your Name,” we direct you to Daniel Day-Lewis in his (supposed?) final screen performance in “Phantom Thread,” a turn that is quite liked as well.

PREDICTION: Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

James Franco | The Disaster ArtistBest Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

It felt like a foregone conclusion leading into the nominations that James Franco would undoubtedly take this one but Daniel Kaluuya has gathered major steam the past few weeks as “Get Out” also gathers.  Was it enough to overtake Franco?  I think he’ll come up just short.

PREDICTION: James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

Best Actress (Drama)
Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World”

This is one of the hottest races of the evening, and it’s not just because of the beauty that besets the category, but because any of the five ladies can theoretically take it.  Logic points to Sally Hawkins nabbing herself a much-needed citation to cement her frontrunner status but Frances McDormand could ride a wave of support for “Three Billboards.”  There’s also been a palpable surge for “Molly’s Game” that could help Jessica Chastain.  I’m rolling the dice on security and sticking with Hawkins.

PREDICTION: Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Helen Mirren, “The Leisure Seeker”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”

This one seems clear to the public, and rightfully so, that Saoirse Ronan will have a moment on stage thanks to her strong showing on the precursor circuit.  Margot Robbie hasn’t been anything to sneeze at either though.  She’s nabbed herself quite a bit of citation and stands a formidable chance, like any of the contenders, at standing at the Dolby, with Oscar in hand.  No matter what, I think we’re getting a repeat of Best Actor 2002 when different winners appeared at all the televised award shows.  Get ready.  We’re going with Robbie.

PREDICTION: Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

three billboards outside ebbing, missouriBest Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Willem Dafoe pulled off the trifecta (winning NBR, NYFCC, and LAFCA), plus he’s dominated the circuit bigly.  But this is the Globes, and things can change on a dime.  Sam Rockwell can be a nice representation for “Three Billboards” while Christopher Plummer’s surprise inclusion can become Aaron Taylor-Johnson 2.0.  I’m making the leap for Rockwell.

PREDICTION: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

This is also not so clean cut as it seems.  Laurie Metcalf has dominated in “Lady Bird” but Allison Janney is coming on hot for “I, Tonya.”  I also wouldn’t rule out a shocking Mary J. Blige but we’re going to stick with convention and logic and go with Metcalf.

PREDICTION: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Best Director
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Ridley Scott, “All the Money in the World”
Steven Spielberg, “The Post”

You can make a case for Christopher Nolan and I would surely hear you out.  If there’s a wave to turn the tide your way, a Golden Globe win in Best Director is the way to do it.  I also don’t think Martin McDonagh is “sexy enough” to give a win to.  That leaves the three veterans and I think Guillermo del Toro seems ripe for this prize, even if his film isn’t winning Best Picture (Drama).

PREDICTION: Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

Best Screenplay
“The Shape of Water” (Vanessa Taylor, Guillermo del Toro)
“Lady Bird” (Greta Gerwig)
“The Post” (Liz Hannah, Josh Singer)
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Martin McDonagh)
“Molly’s Game” (Aaron Sorkin)

This is a hot spot for “Lady Bird” to win and plead its case for Original Screenplay, especially with “Get Out” not present but if “Three Billboards” wants to continue the Best Picture heat talk, then a win here will certainly help it.

PREDICTION: “Lady Bird” (Greta Gerwig)

Best Score
“Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Carter Burwell)
“The Shape of Water” (Alexandre Desplat)
“Phantom Thread” (Jonny Greenwood)
“The Post” (John Williams)
“Dunkirk” (Hans Zimmer)

Another “up in the air” race and convention points to Alexandre Desplat but Jonny Greenwood’s work on “Phantom Thread” is one of the single best things this decade, let alone the year.  I’d also watch out for Hans Zimmer to stake his claim.  I’m sticking with Greenwood.

PREDICTION: “Phantom Thread” (Jonny Greenwood)

Foreign Language
“In the Fade” (Germany)
“First they Killed My Father” (Cambodia)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Square” (Switzerland)

It’s smart to go with any the remaining contenders in the Oscar race but Angelina Jolie is here and they adore her.  With that said, I have a sneaking suspicion that the HFPA is about to make a statement and reward the understated “A Fantastic Woman.”  Call it a hunch.

PREDICTION: “A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)

Animated Feature
“The Boss Baby”
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco”
“Ferdinand”
“Loving Vincent”

Let’s not split hairs here.  This is the one definitive thing of the evening and it’s totally deserved.

PREDICTION: “Coco”

Best Original Song
“Ferdinand” (“Home”)
“Mudbound” (“Mighty River”)
“Coco” (“Remember Me”)
“The Star” (“The Star”)
“The Greatest Showman” (“This Is Me”)

A moment for Mary J. Blige is pretty hard to pass up but “The Greatest Showman” and “Coco” both look like their speed.  Will they go back-to-back for the “La La Land” songwriters or will they vote for the spirit of a film as demonstrated by “Remember Me?”  I think they’ll go familiar.

PREDICTION: “The Greatest Showman” (“This Is Me”)

TV PREDICTIONS

Best Television Series – Drama
“The Crown”
“Game of Thrones”
“The Handmaid’s Tale”
“Stranger Things”
“This is Us”

PREDICTION: “The Handmaid’s Tale”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Sterling K. Brown, “This is Us”
Freddie Highmore, “The Good Doctor”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”

PREDICTION: Jason Bateman, “Ozark”

Best TV Series – Comedy
“Blackish”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Master of None”
“SMLIF”
“Will & Grace”

PREDICTION: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

Best Actor in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Robert De Niro, “The Wizard of Lies”
Jude Law, “The Young Pope”
Kyle MacLachlan, “Twin Peaks”
Ewan McGregor, “Fargo”
Geoffrey Rush, “Genius”

PREDICTION: Ewan McGregor, “Fargo”

Best TV Movie or Limited-Series
“Big Little Lies”
“Fargo”
“Feud: Bette and Joan”
“Top of the Lake”
“The Sinner”

PREDICTION: “Big Little Lies”

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Limited-Series or TV Movie
David Harbour, “Stranger Things”
Alfred Molina, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
Christian Slater, “Mr. Robot”
Alexander Skarsgård, “Big Little Lies”
David Thewlis, “Fargo”

PREDICTION: David Harbour, “Stranger Things”

Best Actress in a Limited-Series or TV Movie
Jessica Biel, “The Sinner”
Nicole Kidman, “Big Little Lies”
Jessica Lange, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
Susan Sarandon, “Feud: Bette and Joan”
Reese Witherspoon, “Big Little Lies”

PREDICTION: Nicole Kidman, “Big Little Lies”

Best Actress in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy
Pamela Adlon, “Better Things”
Alison Brie, “Glow”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Issa Rae, “Insecure”
Frankie Shaw, “SMILF”

PREDICTION: Issa Rae, “Insecure”

Best Actor in a TV Series, Musical or Comedy
Anthony Anderson, “Blackish”
Aziz Ansari, “Master of None”
Kevin Bacon, “I Love Dick”
William H. Macy, “Shameless”
Eric McCormack, “Will & Grace”

PREDICTION: Eric McCormack, “Will & Grace”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Claire Foy, “The Crown”
Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Deuce”
Katherine Langford, “13 Reasons Why”

PREDICTION: Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or TV Movie
Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies”
Ann Dowd, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Chrissy Metz, “This is Us”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Wizard of Lies”
Shailene Woodley, “Big Little Lies”

PREDICTION: Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies”

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ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT |