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  • Contemplating Potential Cannes Film Festival Showings

    Besides The Great Gatsby, plenty of big films will screen...but which ones?

    March 12, 2013

    cannesWith the first domino of the Cannes Film Festival having just fallen and The Great Gatsby debuting, why not ponder what else could play at the fest? I’ve done that since the announcement, and while it’s truly a fool’s errand to try to accurately predict what will actually unspool at Cannes, I’ve opted to take a crack at it anyway. It’s something I actually do every year around this time. It’ll be a bit until the official word comes down on what movies are tapped, but until then we can play the guessing game while hoping that an Oscar player winds up making a grand entrance over in France. With that in mind, here’s what I’ve come up with…

    First of all, there apparently will be no debuting of Pedro Almodovar’s new movie I’m So Excited or Lars Von Trier’s potentially pornographic Nymphomaniac, so I haven’t included them in the list below. Instead, here are ten films that have decently good odds of winding up at Cannes. Behold:

    Here’s what I’m thinking, in alphabetical order:

    • All Is Lost (directed by J.C. Chandor and starring Robert Redford)
    • The Bling Ring (directed by Sofia Coppola and starring Emma Watson)
    • Goodbye To Language (directed by the legendaryJean-Luc Godard)
    • Inside Llewelyn Davis (written by the Coen Brothers and starring Oscar Isaac)
    • Lowlife (directed by James Gray and starring Marion Cotillard)
    • Nebraska (directed by Alexander Payne and starring Bruce Dern)
    • Only God Forgives (directed by Nicolas Winding Refn and starring Ryan Gosling)
    • Only Lovers Left Alive (directed by Jim Jarmusch and starring Tilda Swinton)
    • The Past (directed by AsgharFarhadi and starring BéréniceBejo)
    • Twelve Years a Slave (directed by Steve McQueen and starring ChiwetelEjiofor).

    Read more on Contemplating Potential Cannes Film Festival Showings…

    In The End, Was It Always ‘Argo’?

    We never should have doubted Ben Affleck's flick...

    February 25, 2013

    winners_2013_oscars_ben_affleck_argo_best_picture_18ilt3u-18ilt51Almost exactly a year ago, I mentioned Ben Affleck’s film Argo as a potential Best Picture winner at the 85th Academy Awards. We had just finished the prior season and with The Artist about to be crowned an Oscar winner, the staff of The Awards Circuit had turned our attention to this potential crop. I wasn’t making any huge claims, but merely saying that it had a shot if things broke the right way. Little did I know what was to come over the course of a year, but we wound up with Argo winning. As fall changed to winter, I wasn’t alone in that line of thinking, but as the calendar changed from 2012 to 2013 and the especially when Affleck was snubbed for Best Director, few stuck with that prediction. The thing is, it was always going to be Argo in the end. We all just over thought things (yes, even I briefly predicted Zero Dark Thirty for a week or two and once even contemplated a Silver Linings Playbook upset) and made the job harder.

    Read more on In The End, Was It Always ‘Argo’?…


    Comments: 26 Comments |

    Previewing the Independent Spirit Awards!

    Looking at the smaller scale Oscars that take place on Saturday evening...

    February 22, 2013

    spirit-awards-2013-nominations-led-by-moonrise-kingdom-and-silver-linings-playbookI’ve often said that my favorite awards show each year usually winds up being the Independent Spirit Awards. Part of that has to do with how the nominees often reflect my tastes more so than many other awards, but also I just really enjoy how unpredictable they can be. It’s not a total love affair though, as there’s an odd commercialism that’s at play and runs counter to the supposed indie spirit of it all. Filmmaker Vincent Pereira actually commented on a Facebook post I did stating that I was finishing this piece and his thoughts on the show only reminded me more about the sort of false independence on display. Still, any show that once upon a time gave Kevin Smith an award can’t be all bad in my book. As is always the case right before the Oscars, I’m here to preview the Spirit Awards. My predictions are usually way off, though this year I may actually do better here than with the Academy Awards…go figure. Anyway, I know you all are mostly interested in this piece for the predictions, so I’ll shut up and get right to it. Enjoy this spin off of the Will Win/Should Win series focused on the Spirit Awards!

    Read more on Previewing the Independent Spirit Awards!…

    Oscar Possibilites from the Sundance Film Festival

    Is there a 'Beasts of the Southern Wild' or a 'The Sessions' in the latest crop of festival hits?

    February 13, 2013

    sundanceMore years than not, at least one or two films from the Sundance Film Festival manage to wind up in the awards season conversation. This past year, we had contenders like Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Sessions make it into the Oscar race, while something like Smashed ultimately came up short, from the mountains of Park City. I’m personally thinking that there aren’t any solid Oscar players from the fest this year, but time will ultimately tell in that regard. Below I’ve compiled the ten most likely films that could see some sort of attention shined on them during the precursor season.

    Read more on Oscar Possibilites from the Sundance Film Festival…

    BAFTA goes for Ben Affleck, Emmanuelle Riva, and ‘Argo’

    'Les Miserables' wins the most awards with four but 'Argo' was the one who won big...

    February 10, 2013

    Emmanuelle Riva Cannes PredictionIf anyone out there didn’t believe that Argo could go the distance yet, I think it might be time to jump on the bandwagon while you still can. Ben Affleck’s Argo managed three awards for Best Film, Best Director, and Best Film Editing.  That number may be the same come Oscar night but switching the Directing win with either Original Score or one of the Sound categories.

    In a big upset, Emmanuelle Riva’s magnificent performance in Michael Haneke’s Amour beat out big competitors Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain for Lead Actress. I’m going on the official record tomorrow when Oscar Predictions are updated, I believe Riva will win the Oscar on her 86th birthday.

    There were some expected wins as always for Daniel Day-Lewis and Anne Hathaway who won Best Lead Actor and Supporting Actress respectively.  Christoph Waltz mirrored his Golden Globe win with a great showing with BAFTA as well as Quentin Tarantino who won Original Screenplay for Django Unchained. Read more on BAFTA goes for Ben Affleck, Emmanuelle Riva, and ‘Argo’…


    Comments: 19 Comments |

    Wrapping up the 2013 Sundance Film Festival!

    A look back on at Park City and the many films that were seen...

    February 7, 2013

    sundance2013350I had wanted to make sure that I got this look at the festival to you all first before leaving, but it didn’t quite turn out that way. In the past week or so you all saw over twenty Sundance reviews and interviews hit the site. I hope you all enjoyed this look at what Sundance is like, and enjoyed all we put out. Seeing up to five movies a day and getting no sleep is hardly something to complain about in the grand scheme of things, but honestly, we’re both thrilled to be home now!

    Read more on Wrapping up the 2013 Sundance Film Festival!…

    Are we six weeks away from seeing ‘Argo’ make history?

    Ben Affleck's film could still win Best Picture, even with his Best Director snub...

    January 18, 2013

    Ben-Affleck-best-director-009Well, here we are. The Golden Globes only managed to confuse us more about the Oscar race, something I wasn’t sure was actually possible. It’s almost as if every phase of the season has thrown us for a new loop. A few months ago I wrote a piece (found here) that spoke about why I had ‘Argo’ as the frontrunner. That remained the case until a few weeks ago, when I moved towards ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ based on its exceptional critics awards run. Then, the Oscar nominations happened and suddenly we didn’t see Ben Affleck or Kathryn Bigelow nominated, making me doubt that either film could win. I was expecting to mostly be moving away from them, but then the Globes on Sunday brought me back to Affleck’s film. It’s definitely not the frontrunner, but I think it remains a viable Best Picture player. Unlikely, yes…but we’d also be looking at a juicy rarity in the world of the Academy Awards.

    Read more on Are we six weeks away from seeing ‘Argo’ make history?…


    Comments: 22 Comments |

    However the nominations turn out, audiences won in 2012!

    We celebrate one of the better years for film in some time...

    January 8, 2013

    pt_1512_5361_oIn a matter of days now, the nominees for the 85th Academy Awards will be revealed. Some of us will be thrilled at the films and performances cited, while others will be disappointed. The thing to remember though, which I mentioned on the latest Power Hour, is that we all won as film lovers in 2012. However the nominations turn out, the ones truly being honored were audiences. People in my position spend countless hours pouring over what might happen, but we rarely stop to smell the roses. Honestly, a lot of that has to do with not having reason to, but this past year of movies is a horse of a different color. I’ve done months of prognostication, but for a moment on nearly the eve of the Oscar nominations, I want to do a little bit of appreciating for a change. I may not have loved every movie, and I downright hated a group of them, but for my money this was the best year movie fans have had in some time, and that remains the case even when just thinking about likely awards contenders. Talk about a rare year!

    Read more on However the nominations turn out, audiences won in 2012!…

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    Comments: 17 Comments |

    Sizing Up: Best Supporting Actress

    The latest installment of this series looks over the women fighting it out for Supporting Actress...

    November 21, 2012

    The Sizing Up Series continues with a look at the slate of Best Supporting Actress contenders. As always, this is as large a grouping of the hopefuls as possible (excluding some no shot contenders and members of bigger ensembles…or else this could have 50 or more people in the article), categorizing them by their assumed likelihood of a nomination come the big morning. Oftentimes, more than a few of the Best Picture nominees wind up with some form of representation here, and this year I think there will be more than a little correlation, but of course absolutely anything is possible with the Academy. We shall see what happens in the end, but enough talk for the time being. I know what you’re all here for, so let’s go right ahead and take a look at the contenders for Best Supporting Actress and size up the field! Read more on Sizing Up: Best Supporting Actress…

    Why ‘Argo’ is still in the driver’s seat for Best Picture

    Almost all of the contenders have been seen, and Ben Affleck's film still appears to be in the lead...

    November 13, 2012

    Now that the Presidential election and race for the White House is thankfully behind us (at least for another 4 years that is), even more speculation and analysis can be applied to the race for Oscars and mainly Best Picture! We’re at a critical juncture, in my opinion, as only a very small amount of contenders have yet to be seen, so there’s an almost complete portrait of the year to gaze at. I’ve been looking at it pretty hard lately, and from this angle, it appears that Ben Affleck’s film ‘Argo’ is still sitting in the pole position for Best Picture. There’s no shortage of challengers, but outside of the unseen ones like ‘Les Miserables’, ‘Promised Land’, and ‘Zero Dark Thirty’, the main films hoping to unseat Ben’s flick all have a long road ahead, and likely only ‘Lincoln’ stands a shot at taking the title from those already in release. There’s also films like ‘Hitchcock’, ‘Life of Pi’, and ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ that aren’t yet out but have been seen by a decent number of Oscar pundits, and none of them feel like winners to me either. Yes, I’m a big ‘Argo’ fan, but first and foremost I’m an Oscar prognosticator, so this is just my take on how things are shaping up. The race can and likely will change, but right now this is how it looks to me.

    Read more on Why ‘Argo’ is still in the driver’s seat for Best Picture…

    Sizing Up: Best Supporting Actor

    The series turns to the Supporting categories, with the gentlemen up first...

    November 10, 2012

    We’re into the Supporting categories now, and this one is a decently large scale grouping of the hopefuls for Best Supporting Actor, excluding of course some no shot contenders and certain members of bigger ensembles, or else this could have had 40 or 50 people in the article. I’m categorizing them by their assumed likelihood of a nomination come nomination day, but that shouldn’t surprise you by now. A couple of things to keep an eye for this category specifically is that it has a decent amount to do with which films get nominated for Best Picture ultimately, and this is also the place where comedy can actually make a dent in the race, not to mention overlooked/veteran actors, though neither could be a factor this year, oddly. Quite often, more than a few of the Best Picture nominees wind up with some form of representation here. For 2012, I think absolutely anything is possible.

    Read more on Sizing Up: Best Supporting Actor…

    Sizing Up: Best Actress

    Is this the weakest category of the year? The newest installment of the series takes a look...

    October 22, 2012

    I’m back once again ladies and gentlemen to do some more Sizing Up! This time around I’m going to be tackling the somewhat slight Best Actress field. For many, this is the worst category of the majors this year and for some the hardest to figure out, especially in terms of a victor. The ultimate winner won’t be of my concern too much now, but I’m seeking to try and make sense of the category and see which ladies can actually get to the final 5. Lots can change between now and the nominations, but this is where I think things currently stand, and it’s certainly a rather fluid list now. At the very least, it’ll be interesting to see how this matches up to the eventual slate of nominees, since so much is sort of guesswork with Best Actress.

    Read more on Sizing Up: Best Actress…

    Did Joaquin Phoenix just cost himself the Oscar?

    Some potential controversial comments may have changed up the Best Actor race...

    October 19, 2012

    Anyone who’s seen Joaquin Phoenix in ‘I’m Still Here’ should know that this is a man who’s not afraid to be different or unpopular. While his incredible work in ‘The Master’ has him at the top of most people’s Oscar predictions (including mine), it’s worth remembering that he’s not exactly tailor-made for the campaign circuit. Well, whether we were trying to forget about that or pretend that Phoenix is now a completely different sort of person, we got a strong reminder of that recently with his sure to be controversial comments while doing an interview with Elvis Mitchell. You can see interview here at Interview Magazine. I still think he’s going to get nominated, but there’s a chance that he just kissed the win goodbye, depending on what Harvey Weinstein has to say about things.

    Read more on Did Joaquin Phoenix just cost himself the Oscar?…

    Sizing Up: Best Actor

    The series pushes on with perhaps the most competitive category of the year...

    October 8, 2012

    Ladies and gentlemen, we come now to part 3 of the Sizing  up series. This one is as close to an all-encompassing grouping of the hopefuls for Best Actor as possible (excluding some no shot contenders). I’m looking to categorize them by their assumed likelihood of a nomination come the big morning, but clearly there’s plenty of guesswork at play here as well. For my money, this is the most competitive category outside of Best Picture and possibly Best Director. There’s a bunch of top-tier contenders that all could win, let alone get nominated, so this is a bit of a top-heavy category.

    Read more on Sizing Up: Best Actor…

    So, is Film really dead?

    A whole rash of articles of late seek to write the obituary for film itself...

    October 4, 2012

    Apparently I need to start looking for a new line of work, if the most recent internet chatter is to be believed. In the past few weeks a bunch of articles have been written about the apparent death of film. Without any particular warning, cinema seems to have a terminal illness and is beyond saving in any meaningful way. At least, that’s what the likes of David Denby, Andrew O’Hehir, and David Thomson are declaring in missives that have been rolling around in my mind for a week or so now. It’s sparked a firestorm of response pieces, with one of the best being Matt Singer and Alison Willmore’s discussion of the debate on an episode of their Filmspotting: SVU podcast (found here), along with Matt’s piece at Criticwire here, and now I’m ready to actually chime in. You can prep yourself by reading Denby’s piece here at The New Republic, O’Hehir’s piece at Salon here, and Thomson’s piece also at The New Republic right here, but after the jump I’m going to kick in my own two cents about this controversy of sorts. As a tease, let’s just say that in my humble opinion the death of cinema has been greatly exaggerated. Read on below for my full thoughts, but of course make sure to tell me what you think as well about this debate…

    Read more on So, is Film really dead?…


    Comments: 14 Comments |

    Battle of the Late Contenders – Hitchcock vs. Promise

    Which contender, if any, can breakthrough?

    September 29, 2012

    As you all know, this year, like almost every other awards season, we’ve had a few party-crashers looking to shake up the slow march to the Oscar nominations by coming out a few months early. Sometimes they hit, like “Million Dollar Baby,” “Crazy Heart,” or “Slumdog Millionaire” but plenty of the time they wind up not making a big mark on the race. This awards season has two surprise entrants hoping to be more like Clint Eastwood’s Oscar winner than another in a long line of films that should have waited an extra year. The titles in question for 2012 are “Hitchcock” and “Promised Land.” Both are possibly big contenders, though both could easily wind up shut out in the race. Gun to my head, I think the former has a stronger appeal than the latter, but both are clearly aimed straight at the Academy’s wheelhouse. Both have a lot of potential, but let’s not have a coronation them as Oscar winners just yet. What we should be doing is considering them in a way we’ve only briefly done before. What are the awards prospects for both films? Read more on Battle of the Late Contenders – Hitchcock vs. Promise…

    Sizing Up: Best Director

    The series moves on with the second installment, this time focusing on the men and women in the Director field...

    September 24, 2012

    Sizing Up Series continues with an in-depth look at the Director candidates for this year’s Oscar ceremony.  As was the case last year, there are a few things to keep an eye for this particular category. One obviously is that a lot will have to do with which films get nominated for Best Picture at the end of the day. The other is the possibility of a Lone Director nod. It used to be something that happened, but it hasn’t come close of late. Now, with us in the brave new-ish world of anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, it keeps the idea of the lone director alive, though it’s going to be unlikely for one to wind up breaking through. Not impossible, mind you…but I wouldn’t count on seeing it this year, or too many instances going forward.

    Read more on Sizing Up: Best Director…

    Sizing Up: Best Picture

    "Sizing Up" Series kicks off for 2012 with the big category...

    September 17, 2012

    It’s that time of the year again folks!  The name of the game here is to make an early grouping of the hopefuls for all the main categories. Beginning with Best Picture and categorizing the contenders by their assumed chances. I’m not ashamed to admit that my success rate has been only decent with these in the past, but that kind of comes with the territory of Oscar prognostication and I’m hoping for a good showing this year. This time around I’m sticking with last year’s model of a larger slate than in previous years, which still has to do with the relative uncertainty that this year’s race has surrounding it again. For one thing, how many nominees will we ultimately have? Less than the 9 we had last year? How many films will actually be able to get the required amount of #1 votes to qualify for a nomination? All of this remains to be seen of course, but for now, I’ve tried to grab all the viable contenders for Best Picture and laid them out for you below. Lots can change between now and the nominations, but this is where I think things stand now at this current and precarious moment. At the very least, it’ll be interesting to see how this matches up to the eventual nominees (last year I correctly predicted 6 of the 9 eventual nominated films from the article).

    Read more on Sizing Up: Best Picture…

    Ten Contenders from the First Half of 2012

    Which early year releases stand a chance for Oscar love...

    August 4, 2012

    Most years, at least a few films from the first half of the year manage to get the attention of the Academy in one way or another. The end result is usually a few Best Picture contenders (even if they’re in the minority overall), but this year there seems to be a dearth of real contenders for the top prize. This is not to say that one can’t cross their fingers for some love for ‘The Cabin in the Woods’, expect that a film like ‘John Carter’ could wind up with some technical citations, or look towards any number of indie films to make a surprise leap into the Oscar race with some precursor love, but at the moment there doesn’t seem to be a lot on Oscar’s plate from January through the end of June. That’s not to say that there aren’t possibilities out there, and I’ve actually collected 10 potential contenders that pretty much represent the best first half hopes of 2012 and listed them in alphabetical order. These aren’t necessarily the ones I’d like to see in play, just the ones realistically under any sort of consideration. Most will wind up excluded from many, if not all, categories, but some of these will score nods for sure. The question is just where. By my count, there are 3 legitimate Best Picture contenders in the group, but none of them is anywhere close to a lock (in fact, I’m actually only predicting one of them to get nominated in my own predictions). Time will tell though, so all we can do right now is ponder the potential possibilities…and ponder we shall! Let’s get started, shall well?

    Read more on Ten Contenders from the First Half of 2012…

    July 8, 2012

    30 Days of Batman

    Once the credits roll on ‘The Dark Knight Rises’, Christopher Nolan will have completed his journey with the Batman franchise.  3 films (and 2 side projects) later, it’s all over for him and the caped crusader. Now, with the release of this final film less than 2 weeks away at this point, what better time is there to take a look back at Nolan’s path with the franchise? I’ll be looking at the past, the present, and the future here, trying to paint a portrait of what this era actually was like for the filmmaker, if that makes any sense. I think Nolan evolved both as a writer and a director while working on the franchise, most notably in terms of scale and what he was willing to do on the big screen. I’ll start with his entrance into the world of Batman and then conclude with where his career might go now that he’s come to a close in this particular type of job. Christopher Nolan has walked a very interesting path while making ‘Batman Begins’, ‘The Dark Knight’, and ‘The Dark Knight Returns’, and I’m going to try and follow in his footsteps while telling this story. Let’s dive right in and get started, shall we?

    Read more on Christopher Nolan and his journey with Batman……

    The Highlights and Lowlights of 2012 Thus Far

    It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...

    July 2, 2012

    An annual tradition at The Awards Circuit, this is my rundown of the first 6 months of films for the year. Right now, at the beginning of July, I’ve seen more than 115 films and I’ve noticed something interesting. The average film is better than usual, but there are less movies to go wild over as well. It doesn’t necessarily indicate anything about the year on the whole or what the second half will be like, but it’s just something that I’ve taken note of. As for this piece, I’ve limited it to only the films that have seen theatrical release between the beginning of January and the end of June, so that excludes anything I’ve seen that is only playing VOD right now or won’t be out until July or beyond.  As for what was eligible, you can see the best and worst of 2012 so far below, along with some awards as well.

    Read more on The Highlights and Lowlights of 2012 Thus Far…

    April 20, 2012

    Now that we saw the first wave of titles that will be playing In Competition at the Cannes Film Festival this year (there will be more movies added, but it’s unlikely that any of the high profile omissions will be added…though you never can be sure with Cannes), it’s fair for an Oscar Prognosticator like myself to start wondering what kind of impact the fest could have on the awards season. Historically, most Best Picture winners don’t get their start there (though of course ‘No Country for Old Men’ did), though nominees in that category are certainly more common…just look to last year when both ‘Midnight in Paris’ and ‘The Tree of Life’ launched at Cannes. As for this year, without having any indication of quality it’s hard to tell, but I’m inclined to think that we may not see any of the titles break through to Oscar in any real way. That’s not to say that they won’t be top notch flicks, but my immediate reaction to the announcement was that they didn’t wind up with any of the potential titles that could be real awards season players. I definitely could be wrong, but that’s what popped into my head first. Still, there’s a chance for a few of the movies to excel enough to warrant strong consideration, and I’ll tackle them in this article below, but first let’s talk about some of the movies that won’t be debuting at Cannes…

    Read more on Is there an Oscar Winner in the Cannes lineup?…

    January 18, 2012

    Every single year, a few films manage to make the jump from the Sundance Film Festival to the Oscar race. This year, I fully expect that to be the case again. The question is, which film or films will be able to do that? With the festival getting underway this week, I decided to sift through the slate of movies playing there and try to determine which flicks might become the next generation of success stories. The list of titles that have gotten the Academy’s attention after Sundance is an impressive one. Just a sampling of the films include ‘Little Miss Sunshine’, ‘Juno’, ‘An Education’, ‘In the Bedroom’, ‘Precious’, ‘The Kids Are All Right’, and ‘Blue Valentine’. That’s just the tip of the iceberg folks, and this year we could see one or two more join that club. Each year plenty of flicks play the fest and are never heard from again, but we also have at least a few that catch on with the Academy each season. Which of the current crop might wow Oscar? It’s all a guess right now, but here are some that certainly have some potential…

    Read more on Which Sundance selections could turn into Oscar players?…

    January 17, 2012

    A lot of people are currently wondering (and some have even asked me) if there’s anything to be learned from the Golden Globe Awards ceremony. My response to them? In short…no, we haven’t. Not really, at least. That being said, the results of the Golden Globes were actually able to set up the narrative for a few interesting races at the Oscars. For me, the Globes are an interesting part of the awards season, but they’re hardly Academy bellwethers. The closest thing to an indicator we’ve seen of late is how the winner of Best Picture – Drama is all but assured to lose come Oscar time. Now that’s mostly coincidence, but in a way it could set up a situation where this emerging “curse” is potentially broken. As for the rest of the Globes’ importance, more than anything else they’re helpful in seeing who might actually be nominated for Oscars. That all being said, I’ll try and shed some light on what the results of the Golden Globes means for Oscar, if any. Here are a half dozen other things besides the “curse” that we learned from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s selections and what their translation to the Academy might be. Here goes nothing

    Read more on What did the Golden Globes Tell Us?…

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