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Predicting the Tony's
By: Josh
Kirschenbaum
"Xanadu" is one of the
nominees for Best Musical
The Tony Awards are not the Oscars. They are not the Emmys, The Golden
Globes, or the SAG awards. Being a previous winner will not hurt your
chances, star power counts for little, and a veteran actor who has never
one will rarely triumph if there is a more deserving performance. There
is little room for surprises with the Tony Awards. Most of the time the
winner is the best of the nominees.
I
have little interest in musicals (I haven’t seen a single one this
year), and so most of my predicting will be for this year’s crop of
plays. I’ll delve into the musical categories only for the two biggest
categories: best musical and best musical revival.
The Tony Awards have only four nominees in the big four categories
(play, play revival, musical, musical revival). Two of the nominees for
best musical can be counted out from serious contention. “Xanadu”, based
the atrocious 1980 film of the same name, has little chance to win
because it’s a disco musical that lacks the acclaim of other nominees.
“Cry-Baby” has similar problems: a dearth of both pedigree and acclaim.
It just isn’t the phenomenon it needs to be to make people forget that
it’s based on a movie. “Passing Strange” and “In the Heights” are very
different musicals. The New York Times called “Strange” “Fresh,
exuberant and bitingly funny.” “Heights,” however, received more
reserved praise. “Light and sweet are actually just the words to
describe this amiable show” said the NYT review. “Strange” seems the
better show, but “Heights” leads in nominations (not just over strange
but over every play and musical nominated), implying that the Tony
voters have taken to it in a big way. I’d bet on “Strange,” because I’m
naïve enough to believe the best play will win.
The musical revival category is between “Rodgers & Hammerstein’s South
Pacific” and “Gypsy.” The other two nominees, “Grease” and “Sunday in
the Park with George,” were successful in their own right, but just
aren’t on the level as the first two. Both frontrunners were received
rave reviews, and both are very popular. “South Pacific” is fresher in
the minds of voters, but “Gypsy” stars Patti LuPone (which is a big deal
in the theater world). “South Pacific” has the edge, if only because it
comes off as less of a showcase and more of its own work.
The category of best featured actress (the Tony Award version of best
supporting actress) is relatively open. Mary McCormack and Rondi Reed,
for their roles in “Boeing-Boeing” and “August: Osage County,”
respectively, could be considered frontrunner because their plays are
among the best reviewed and “August” is a near lock to win best play
(more on that later). Sinead Cusack was fantastic in Tom Stoppard’s
“Rock ‘n’ Roll,” but the run of that play was interrupted by a
stagehands strike, and she never really got the chance to wow as many
audiences as she could have. Martha Plimpton has a chance for her role
in “Top Girls” but it’s not exactly a big chance. I’m glad that Laurie
Metcalf got noticed for her scene-stealing role in David Mamet’s
“November.” I highly doubt she’ll win, but it makes me happy
nonetheless. I’d say Reed is the one to beat. I have a feeling “August”
will be wining a lot.
The only nominees with a legitimate chance of wining the featured actor
award are Raúl Esparza, for his role in Harold Pinter’s “The
Homecoming,” and Jim Norton, for his role in Conor McPherson’s “The
Seafarer.” Esparza gave a great performance in a great role. Norton was
likely overshadowed by costars David Morse and Ciarán
Hinds. Esparza’s the frontrunner, Norton’s the underdog. It’s simple
enough.
The only thing standing between Deanna Dunagan (from “August: Osage
County”) and a Tony award for best actress is the possibility that she
will split the votes with her also-nominated costar Amy Morton. The
other three nominees, S. Epatha Merkerson (“Come Back, Little Sheba”),
Eve Best (“The Homecoming”), and Kate Fleetwood (“Macbeth”) all stand to
gain from a vote split. Dunagan is by far the frontrunner here but watch
for an upset by any of the three non-“August” actresses.
Best Actor is somewhat complicated. Ben Daniels (“Les Liaisons
Dangereuses) and Rufus Sewell (“Rock ‘n’ Roll”) are effectively out of
the race despite excellent, raved performances. Conventional wisdom says
this is a race between Laurence Fishburne for his role in the one man
show about Supreme Court justice Thurgood Marshall, “Thurgood,” and
Patrick Stewart for his role as the title character in “Macbeth.” The
New Yorker praised Stewart as “masterly,” adding “he makes the
character’s journey from tentativeness to tyranny with unhistrionic
aplomb.” Fishburne’s performance was raved by New York Magazine as
“[managing] the marvelous feat of conveying immense authority with
grace.” Stewart was considered a lock to win until Fishburne’s play
debuted. As the two thunderous performances have been fighting for
frontrunner status, buzz has been quietly building for Mark Rylance’s
role in “Boeing-Boeing.” He’s not exactly a major contender, but
“Boeing” has gained traction in recent weeks, and most people seem
deadlocked between Fishburne and Stewart. Ultimately, Stewart has the
better part and the better play. He seems to have the edge over
Fishburne, but will it be enough not only to win by also to fend off a
upset from Rylance? Pressed for a choice, I’d say Stewart.
Best revival of a play is a particularly competitive category. Three of
the nominees have a legitimate chance of winning, those being “Macbeth,”
“The Homecoming,” and “Boeing-Boeing.” One is Shakespeare, one is
Pinter, and one has been gaining a lot of momentum of late. “Boeing” is
much lighter than the other two, which could work for it or against it.
I’d say “Macbeth” has the best chance, if only because Shakespeare can
be momentous when done right.
“August: Osage County” is winning best play. The other nominees, “The 39
Steps,” “The Seafarer,” and “Rock ‘n’ Roll” may be good, but they just
can’t compete with “August,” which not only sports some of the best
reviews in a long time but also happens to have won the Pulitzer Prize
for drama.
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