Oscars Competition, By Numbers

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Can ‘Argo‘ win against the other great submissions for Best Motion Picture in the 2013 Academy Awards?

After countless awards in several film festivals, the race is growing tighter as some critics overlook certain titles for others. Less seasoned in the world of Oscars and festivals, I got really confused when it came to determining how to view each win and nomination. So I converted everything into numbers and found everything much easier to understand. Here are my findings. (*Warning: This is just speculation based on the percent of wins in the nominations listed in the AwardsCircuit predictions and, to make it simpler, I didn’t factor in time and theaters.)

Though , ‘Argo‘ leads the number of wins count, these numbers are only relative if you have a base to compare them. By weighing the number of wins against the number of nominations, a percent can be drawn from the results. That puts ‘Argo‘ at, roughly, 41% as the Golden Globes approach, just behind ‘Amour‘ at 56% and ‘Beasts of the Southern Wild’ at 51%. ‘Life of Pi‘ follows at 31%, ‘Silver Linings Playbook‘ at 29%, ‘Lincoln‘ at 25%, and ‘Les Miserables‘ at 24% . From the sidelines, ‘Zero Dark Thirty‘, once considered the dark horse of the 2013 Oscars, fits snugly between ‘Beasts‘ and ‘Life of Pi‘ at 47%, continuing to do very well in the film festivals, as one of the most discussed films due to the controversy it raises wherever it goes.

Oscars MashUp

Whether or not ‘Rust And Bone‘ (40%), ‘The Master‘ (37%), ‘Moonrise Kingdom‘ (28%), ‘Anna Karenina‘ (22%), ‘Skyfall‘ (7%) and ‘Hitchcock‘ (0%) can grab a hold of a 2013 Oscar spot still remains to be seen. So far, however, based on their numbers, ‘Rust And Bone‘ would fit just behind ‘Zero Dark Thirty‘, ‘The Master‘ just ahead of ‘Life of Pi‘, ‘Moonrise Kingdom‘ behind the ‘Silver Linings Playbook‘ and the rest at the end of the line up. ‘Zero Dark Thirty‘, ‘Les Miserables‘ and ‘Django Unchained‘ (48%), though anticipated to having high percentages may not have reached their full potential as of now due to having been released later than the others, so their percentages can’t be properly scored. However, as time goes on, there is the, definite, possibility of them joining the ranks at a more appropriately scored percentage.

Moving away from generalizations and including time and favor, along with proper category nomination values, the percentages would be different. So, in conclusion, based on my accounted numbers (which also depend on the minds of critics), the 2013 Academy Awards promises to be quite a close race, and I look forward to a couple of them pulling from the others, if not one.