New York Film Critics Circle Preview – What Will Show Up Tomorrow?

wolfofwallstreet_9The New York Film Critics Circle will be cooking up their favorite films and performances of 2013 tomorrow beginning at 10:00 am Eastern time.  The East Coast group will be the first ones to drop the gauntlet on the season and possibly put a film or performer in prime position for recognition since SAG and HFPA ballots are still out.  Last year, they chose Kathryn Bigelow‘s Zero Dark Thirty, which had just screened just days before.  Tonight, they are getting their first look at Martin Scorsese‘s The Wolf of Wall Street and judging by some of the word that has come out of the guild screenings this weekend, it could resonate with some liberal voters.

HERE’S A REACTION:

After Bigelow’s film, and Bigelow herself, won the top two awards, many pundits assumed we were possibly in for a historic precedent where Bigelow could win her second Oscar.  What New York also managed to do was bring an early year contender back in the spotlight.  Rachel Weisz shocked many when she won Best Actress for her work on The Deep Blue Sea.  I’m sure that mention led the way for her to receive her Golden Globe nomination as well.  What early year work has the power to pop up tomorrow?  What would really surprise all of us in a shocking manner.

If we’re looking on the film front, they may look the way of films like Inside Llewyn Davis which seems like a probable bet since it takes place in their own backyard fifty years ago.  Older members of the guild could really warm up to it.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the group decided to throw a curveball like Blue is the Warmest Color or Spike Jonze‘s Her.  Both would be a mixed bag to many but it would shine a bright light on either of them as they seek their major Oscar bids.

At the end of the day, Steve McQueen‘s 12 Years a Slave could gain the first of many awards if the critics are looking to keep it safe and on course to Oscar.  I’m sure in an unprecedented year for Black filmmakers and actors, one of the major guild awards like National Board of Review, LAFCA, and NYFCC, will want to be around for a historic event if McQueen’s film is about to make history.  Same could be said for Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity who would benefit immensely from a win.  Chances are, those two films could split both Picture and Director wins if they show up.

Hanks_McConaugheyOn the actors side, NYFCC tends to like some out of the box choices as they showed with Brad Pitt winning for both Moneyball and The Tree of Life.  Christian Bale, Tom Hanks, and Matthew McConaughey all gave more than one stellar performance.  Bale’s work on both American Hustle and Out of the Furnace have him in top form however, he is delivering in two films that have been received with mixed praise.  To add, Bale has never won an award from the group, not even 2nd or 3rd place mentions.

Hanks truly comes to life in both Captain Phillips and Saving Mr. Banks.  Both films have the critics on its side and they’ve gone for him before with a win for Cast Away under his belt.  If they want to reward a comeback year, Hanks’ work has truly had the magic to warrant a mention.

McConaughey is in a tougher boat.  After just winning Supporting Actor last year for both Bernie and Magic Mike, he doesn’t have himself in the same situation.  While his work in Dallas Buyers Club is something that comes around only once in a while, he’s going to have members have the “been there, done that” attitude.  If he mustered another trophy from the 78-year-old organization, I would start looking at McConaughey with a stronger hand on the Best Actor competition.  He also has added glory for his work in Jeff NicholsMud and The Wolf of Wall Street, which they just saw today.

In the Best Actress race, it’s hard for me to see anyone but Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, or Adèle Exarchopoulos winning the awards from New York.  Those three ladies will have the critical clout surrounded by the extreme likability of their films.  I think you can see lovely mention of Brie Larson come through at the last-minute but that would REALLY be surprising.

In the Supporting categories, Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender are two big potentials to win.  Bradley Cooper could win a combined award for his works in American Hustle and The Place Beyond the Pines, two works where he stands out above his co-stars.  Jake Gyllenhaal and Jonah Hill are also two spoilers if they feel like some Prisoners or Wolf mentions.

Lupita Nyong’o screams a “sure bet” for a mention from NYC but they could go conventional and choose someone like Oprah Winfrey from Lee Daniels’ The Butler or even Jennifer Lawrence from Hustle.   Last year they chose Sally Field from Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln which makes be believe they go with the “#2” person as oppose to the presumed winner.  Watch out for any of the ladies from August: Osage County which includes Margo Martindale or Julia Roberts.

Look below for the predicted winners and put yours in the comment section.  We will have you coverage beginning at 10:00 am ET.

gravity_PictureBest Picture12 Years a Slave

Alternate: Gravity
Spoiler: Inside Llewyn Davis
Surprise: Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Director – Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

Alternate: Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
Spoiler: Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
Surprise: J.C. Chandor for All is Lost

Best Actor – Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips and Saving Mr. Banks

Alternate: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
Spoiler: Robert Redford for All is Lost
Surprise: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actress – Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Alternate: Sandra Bullock for Gravity
Spoiler: Adèle Exarchopoulos for Blue is the Warmest Color
Surprise: Brie Larson for Short Term 12

dallas_buyers_club_PictureBest Supporting Actor – Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

Alternate: Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
Spoiler: Bradley Cooper for American Hustle and The Place Beyond the Pines
Surprise: Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave

Alternate: Margo Martindale for August: Osage County
Spoiler: Oprah Winfrey for Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Surprise: Scarlett Johansson for Don Jon and Her

Best Screenplay – Bob Nelson for Nebraska

Alternate: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis
Spoiler: John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave
Surprise: Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for Philomena

Best Cinematographer – Emmanuel Lubeski for Gravity

Alternate: Sean Bobbit for 12 Years a Slave
Spoiler: Bradford Young for Ain’t Them Bodies Saints
Surprise: Frank G. DeMarco, Peter Zuccarini for All is Lost

frozenposterBest Animated FeatureFrozen

Alternate: The Wind Rises
Spoiler: Monsters University
Surprise: Despicable Me 2

Best Non-Fiction Film (Documentary)The Square

Alternate: 20 Feet from Stardom
Spoiler: Stories We Tell
Surprise: The Act of Killing

Best Foreign FilmWadjda

Alternate: Blue is the Warmest Color
Spoiler: The Hunt
Surprise: Gloria

Best First FilmFruitvale Station

Alternate: Blue Caprice
Spoiler: Wadjda
Surprise: Don Jon

What are your predictions?