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2014 Oscar Predictions – Quick Updates to the Major Categories

With two big days in the books, where does the race stand…?

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With the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild unveiling their nominations over the past two days, the race has taken a shape, many didn’t see happening.  Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyers Club has risen considerably while actors like Barkhad Abdi and Daniel Bruhl have become the hands on favorite to be nominated in their respective categories.  Oprah Winfrey got a huge blow earlier today, missing out on a Golden Globe nomination for her work in the shutout civil rights film, Lee Daniels’ The Butler.  There’s a lot to consider.

Rather than making you wait a long time for me to update the official Oscar Prediction pages (which takes longer than you all think), I thought I’d give a quick update via this space.

BEST MOTION PICTURE

  1. 12 Years a Slave (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
  2. Gravity (Warner Bros.)
  3. The Wolf of Wall Street (Paramount Pictures)
  4. Nebraska (Paramount Pictures)
  5. Captain Phillips (Sony Pictures)
  6. Saving Mr. Banks (Walt Disney Pictures)
  7. Inside Llewyn Davis (CBS Films)
  8. Dallas Buyers Club (Focus Features)
  9. American Hustle (Sony Pictures)

ALTERNATES:

  • Her (Warner Bros.)
  • Lee Daniels’ The Butler (The Weinstein Company)
  • Philomena (The Weinstein Company)

Could this be the first year in quite some time that the Weinstein Company doesn’t have a Best Picture nominee in their midst?  It can be argued which film in their arsenal has the legs to make a representation.  Lee Daniels’ The Butler and August: Osage County both managed multiple SAG nominations including Best Cast Ensemble while Philomena was nominated for a Golden Globe today in Best Picture (Drama).  My guess is that they have to sit this year out.

We also have to come to terms that we’re not (or never) getting ten Best Picture nominees ever again and a film or two is going to be left off on the sidelines.  Unfortunately, I’m not entirely convinced that Spike Jonze’s Her, despite its win with the National Board of Review and Los Angeles Film Critics, is going to make the cut in the end.  No SAG nominations shows some weakness, which you can make the argument that an Ensemble nomination would not be appropriate despite strong performances by Joaquin PhoenixAmy Adams, and Scarlett Johansson.

The Golden Globes also put the nail in the coffin on any outside shot of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty or Lone Survivor sneaking into the category.  I thought the latter had a real chance with its emotional pull.  Who knows?  Perhaps they still look that way in the end.  

What do you think?

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Written by Clayton Davis

Clayton Davis is the esteemed Editor and Owner of AwardsCircuit.com. Born in Bronx, NY to a Puerto Rican mother and Black father, he’s been criticizing film and television for over a decade. Clayton is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to the awards season, the Critics Choice Awards. He also founded the Latino Entertainment Journalists Association, the first Latino-based critics’ organization in the United States. He’s also an active member of the African-American Film Critics Association, New York Film Critics Online, International Press Academy, Black Reel Awards, and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association. Clayton has been quoted and appeared in various outlets that include The New York Times, CNN.com, Variety, Deadline, Los Angeles Times, FOX 5, Bloomberg Television, AOL, Huffington Post, Bloomberg Radio, The Wrap, Slash Film, and the Hollywood Reporter.

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UBourgeois

I think you’re fooling yourself if you think David O. Russell isn’t in the five. He’s been appearing in director lineups everywhere.

Jamie Teller

You really think DBC will get in over Her? I can’t see that happening. All DBC has gotten thus far is McConaughey and Leto noms. Personally, I think the directing there is more interesting than the acting, but I think I’m alone in that.

Kev Dantzler

I think taking David out of the BD race is a bold move but I don’t agree… I wouldn’t underestimate him at this point… remember, he is getting a lot of love from other awards… I think Paul Greengrass would be a safer bet to NOT get a nomination

Kev Dantzler

I’m so glad that you changed your decision around Chiwetel being left out of the Oscar Nominations…. I would bet money that he is on the top of the list for a nomination… if anyone should be worried, its Tom Hanks since he is getting more raves for Saving Mr Banks

Kev Dantzler

COuldn’t agree more with the Best Actress line up… if anyone misses, it will be my love, the incredible Meryl Streep :-(… and that’s by a long shot

Kev Dantzler

I must be the only person in the world that finds Barkhad Abdi’s performance highly overrated…. I may have to see Captain Phillips AGAIN to discover what the hype is about

Kev Dantzler

Oprah’s GG snub was a huge blow…. at this point, the only upset would be her scoring a nomination and knocking Octavia or Sally out of the running… Lupita BETTER have this in the bag LOL #praying

Amanda

American Hustle 9°? O. Russell 7°? Lawrence 4° and vulnerable? WTF?? AH has 89 in Metacritic and 97% in Rotten Tomattoes, and Lawrence is the bride to america and the outstanding the film…. What is your problem with O. Russell and his films??

Phillip Milner

Clayton has a made hate relationship with O’Russel

Hiro Dominion

It seems your obsession for a John Goodman nomination is finally at an end.

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