BAFTA Predictions – With Oscar Ballots Out, Who or What Has an Edge?

BAFTA Awards Statues 2012Two major events are happening this weekend.  On Friday, the Academy voters will be receiving their Oscar ballots to make their decisions on the 24 Oscar categories.  With those ballots in hand, BAFTA will unveil their winners on Sunday.  Staff Writer Mark Johnson did a phenomenal job earlier in the week, telling us what we could learn from the Brits.

There are many speculations about what could do very well including a sweep for 12 Years a Slave or a sweep for Gravity.  There’s also a possibility that “Philomena” comes up very strong which could give it a boost in its four Oscar categories.  This is where I stand:

I think that 12 Years a Slave will ring “too American” for the Brits, despite being helmed by fellow countryman Steve McQueen.  It’s the same reason why American Hustle probably won’t resonate with voters.  That leaves Captain Phillips, Gravity, and Philomena vying for love.  There are a lot of directions they may choose to go.  The Best Film winner since 2009 has gone on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.  However,  before that, they hadn’t chose the winner since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.  At the moment, the scale seems tilted in Gravity‘s favor.  Winning the DGA and PGA are two huge factors that support any idea that Cuaron’s film will win Picture (and Director).  It’ll be close.

On the acting front, we have little to no reason that Cate Blanchett and Lupita Nyong’o won’t be crowned on Sunday.  They both have close competitors, both from American Hustle, that could spoil the party.  I would add Judi Dench as another spoiler to Blanchett but those two seem pretty safe.

Enter Lead and Supporting Actor, two categories that are free from any representation from Dallas Buyers Club.  Frontrunners Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto were snubbed by the British Academy which could leave two possibilities.  We are either about to learn who the “runners up” are in their respective categories or someone is going to receive a huge boost with Oscar ballots in voters’ hands.  In Lead Actor, Leonardo DiCaprio and Chiwetel Ejiofor will be battling for the gold.  The Wolf of Wall Street and Paramount Pictures have really stepped up their campaigning efforts.  A retrospective took place in New York on Thursday with DiCaprio and director Martin Scorsese, and some pundits are beginning to make the switch, especially with a long-winded Phase 2.

In Supporting Actor, there’s less wiggle room.  Jared Leto seems like the one sure fire winner of the major categories.  What this does is provide an opportunity for someone like Barkhad Abdi, Daniel Bruhl, or Michael Fassbender to make a speech.

Down below are the nominees with the predicted winners in highlighted BOLD.

BEST FILM

  • 12 YEARS A SLAVE Anthony Katagas, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Steve McQueen
  • AMERICAN HUSTLE Charles Roven, Richard Suckle, Megan Ellison, Jonathan Gordon
  • CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca
  • GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón, David Heyman
  • PHILOMENA Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan, Tracey Seaward

DIRECTOR

  • 12 YEARS A SLAVE Steve McQueen
  • AMERICAN HUSTLE David O. Russell
  • CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Paul Greengrass
  • GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón
  • THE WOLF OF WALL STREET Martin Scorsese

LEADING ACTOR

  • BRUCE DERN Nebraska
  • CHIWETEL EJIOFOR 12 Years a Slave
  • CHRISTIAN BALE American Hustle
  • LEONARDO DICAPRIO The Wolf of Wall Street
  • TOM HANKS Captain Phillips

LEADING ACTRESS

  • AMY ADAMS American Hustle
  • CATE BLANCHETT Blue Jasmine
  • SANDRA BULLOCK Gravity
  • EMMA THOMPSON Saving Mr. Banks
  • JUDI DENCH Philomena

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

  • GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón, David Heyman, Jonás Cuarón
  • MANDELA: LONG WALK TO FREEDOM Justin Chadwick, Anant Singh, David M. Thompson, William Nicholson
  • PHILOMENA Stephen Frears, Gabrielle Tana, Steve Coogan, Tracey Seaward, Jeff Pope
  • RUSH Ron Howard, Andrew Eaton, Peter Morgan
  • SAVING MR. BANKS John Lee Hancock, Alison Owen, Ian Collie, Philip Steuer, Kelly Marcel, Sue Smith
  • THE SELFISH GIANT: Clio Barnard, Tracy O’Riordan

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

  • COLIN CARBERRY (Writer), GLENN PATTERSON (Writer) Good Vibrations
  • KELLY MARCEL (Writer) Saving Mr. Banks
  • KIERAN EVANS (Director/Writer) Kelly + Victor
  • PAUL WRIGHT (Director/Writer), POLLY STOKES (Producer) For Those in Peril
  • SCOTT GRAHAM (Director/Writer) Shell

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

  • THE ACT OF KILLING Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge Sørensen
  • BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOUR Abdellatif Kechiche, Brahim Chioua, Vincent Maraval
  • THE GREAT BEAUTY Paolo Sorrentino, Nicola Giuliano, Francesca Cima
  • METRO MANILA Sean Ellis, Mathilde Charpentier
  • WADJDA Haifaa Al-Mansour, Gerhard Meixner, Roman Paul

DOCUMENTARY

  • THE ACT OF KILLING Joshua Oppenheimer
  • THE ARMSTRONG LIE Alex Gibney
  • BLACKFISH Gabriela Cowperthwaite
  • TIM’S VERMEER Teller, Penn Jillette, Farley Ziegler
  • WE STEAL SECRETS: THE STORY OF WIKILEAKS Alex Gibney

ANIMATED FILM

  • DESPICABLE ME 2 Chris Renaud, Pierre Coffin
  • FROZEN Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee
  • MONSTERS UNIVERSITY Dan Scanlon

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • AMERICAN HUSTLE Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell
  • BLUE JASMINE Woody Allen
  • GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón, Jonás Cuarón
  • INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
  • NEBRASKA Bob Nelson

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • 12 YEARS A SLAVE John Ridley
  • BEHIND THE CANDELABRA Richard LaGravenese
  • CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Billy Ray
  • PHILOMENA Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope
  • THE WOLF OF WALL STREET Terence Winter

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • BARKHAD ABDI Captain Phillips
  • BRADLEY COOPER American Hustle
  • DANIEL BRÜHL Rush
  • MATT DAMON Behind the Candelabra
  • MICHAEL FASSBENDER 12 Years a Slave

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • JENNIFER LAWRENCE American Hustle
  • JULIA ROBERTS August: Osage County
  • LUPITA NYONG’O 12 Years a Slave
  • OPRAH WINFREY The Butler
  • SALLY HAWKINS Blue Jasmine

ORIGINAL MUSIC

  • 12 YEARS A SLAVE Hans Zimmer
  • THE BOOK THIEF John Williams
  • CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Henry Jackman
  • GRAVITY Steven Price
  • SAVING MR. BANKS Thomas Newman

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • 12 YEARS A SLAVE Sean Bobbitt
  • CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Barry Ackroyd
  • GRAVITY Emmanuel Lubezki
  • INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS Bruno Delbonnel
  • NEBRASKA Phedon Papamichael

EDITING

  • 12 YEARS A SLAVE Joe Walker
  • CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Christopher Rouse
  • GRAVITY Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger
  • RUSH Dan Hanley, Mike Hill
  • THE WOLF OF WALL STREET Thelma Schoonmaker

PRODUCTION DESIGN

  • 12 YEARS A SLAVE Adam Stockhausen, Alice Baker
  • AMERICAN HUSTLE Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler
  • BEHIND THE CANDELABRA Howard Cummings
  • GRAVITY Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin, Joanne Woodlard
  • THE GREAT GATSBY Catherine Martin, Beverley Dunn

COSTUME DESIGN

  • AMERICAN HUSTLE Michael Wilkinson
  • BEHIND THE CANDELABRA Ellen Mirojnick
  • THE GREAT GATSBY Catherine Martin
  • THE INVISIBLE WOMAN Michael O’Connor
  • SAVING MR. BANKS Daniel Orlandi

MAKE UP & HAIR

  • AMERICAN HUSTLE Evelyne Noraz, Lori McCoy-Bell
  • BEHIND THE CANDELABRA Kate Biscoe, Marie Larkin
  • THE BUTLER Debra Denson, Beverly Jo Pryor, Candace Neal
  • THE GREAT GATSBY Maurizio Silvi, Kerry Warn
  • THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG Peter Swords King, Richard Taylor, Rick Findlater

SOUND

  • ALL IS LOST Richard Hymns, Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Micah Bloomberg, Gillian Arthur
  • CAPTAIN PHILLIPS Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith, Chris Munro, Oliver Tarney
  • GRAVITY Glenn Freemantle, Skip Lievsay, Christopher Benstead, Niv Adiri, Chris Munro
  • INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS Peter F. Kurland, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff
  • RUSH Danny Hambrook, Martin Steyer, Stefan Korte, Markus Stemler, Frank Kruse

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

  • GRAVITY Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, Nikki Penny
  • THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, Eric Reynolds
  • IRON MAN 3 Bryan Grill, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Dan Sudick
  • PACIFIC RIM Hal Hickel, John Knoll, Lindy De Quattro, Nigel Sumner
  • STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS Ben Grossmann, Burt Dalton, Patrick Tubach, Roger Guyett

BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION

  • EVERYTHING I CAN SEE FROM HERE Bjorn-Erik Aschim, Friederike Nicolaus, Sam Taylor
  • I AM TOM MOODY Ainslie Henderson
  • SLEEPING WITH THE FISHES James Walker, Sarah Woolner, Yousif Al-Khalifa

BRITISH SHORT FILM

  • ISLAND QUEEN Ben Mallaby, Nat Luurtsema
  • KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES Megan Rubens, Michael Pearce, Selina Lim
  • ORBIT EVER AFTER Chee-Lan Chan, Jamie Stone, Len Rowles
  • ROOM 8 James W. Griffiths, Sophie Venner
  • SEA VIEW Anna Duffield, Jane Linfoot

THE EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)

  • DANE DEHAAN
  • GEORGE MACKAY
  • LUPITA NYONG’O
  • WILL POULTER
  • LÉA SEYDOUX