Oscar Predictions: ‘Selma’ Moves Up and Is Bennett Miller a Threat in Director?

stanhouston_selmaHappy New Year everyone.  Since AMPAS, pundits, and everyone else is enjoying their holiday, a full Oscar Circuit column won’t come until next week, likely Tuesday.  For now, the major Oscar Predictions have been updated from Picture down to Adapted Screenplay but if you look at the sidebar, you can see the full nomination listing.

Here are some movements and short thoughts on the updates:

  • Selma” hops in front of “The Imitation Game” and “Birdman” for the moment.  At this time of writing, Ava DuVernay’s film is sitting at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 71 reviews counted.  It looks to be the true challenger to “Boyhood” and with the two narratives, it’ll be interesting to see which one they embrace.
  • Looking for an outside-the-box director choice is becoming a bit of a headache.  DGA nominations will be announced once ballots have been turned in and the last time that happened we got Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow snubbed with a Benh Zeitlin surprise inclusion.  Everyone seems to be pointing towards Damien Chazelle as that possible inclusion but (and even with the recent headlines) I’m starting to look at previous nominee Bennett Miller to crack the five.  The Cannes winner is well liked and his direction and choices are all over “Foxcatcher.”  The film may end up doing better than we anticipated.
  • Lead Actor remains the same but Jake Gyllenhaal and Ralph Fiennes are right on the cusp.  Steve Carell may get edged out in the end but we could have someone even more shocking left off.  Don’t know who yet.
  • A Most Violent Year” is being heavily embraced by critics but its best shot looks to be Jessica Chastain in Supporting Actress.  I wonder if the script can nab up that seemingly fifth spot in Original Screenplay.  Speaking of, I’m starting to wonder if “Whiplash” feels like “(500) Days of Summer” in that category and ends up missing out in the end.
  • I still think “Birdman” will be the most nominated film of the day but “The Theory of Everything” and “The Imitation Game” will be close behind.  How many nominations will “Interstellar” get or “Mr. Turner” or “Gone Girl?”  Those are huge questions lingering.

Check out the updates and include your thoughts in the comments.

CHECK OUT THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS:

PICTURE | DIRECTOR | LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS |ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN |CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE | LIVE ACTION SHORT | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT