Final Predictions for the Golden Globes – Wide Open Races in Both Movies and Television

With SAG set to hand out their nominations this coming Wednesday, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will announce their nominations for the 2016 Golden Globes on Thursday.  This year, more than ever, we’ll be looking at both organizations to get indications of support for certain films and performances.  The HFPA has already corrected certain campaigns submitted by the studios which include Rooney Mara (“Carol”) and Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”) being moved to Lead Actress in a Drama, Jason Segal (“The End of the Tour”) moving to Lead Actor in a Drama, “Trumbo” switching to Drama, and a few other key cases.  

Unsure how this can shake things out, but after SAG announces on Wednesday, with no reported category switches named thus far, we’ll have to attempt to assume “business as usual” and see where the support lies.  Before anyone jumps up and down about omissions of certain films and performances, remember that the HFPA hardly ever has a 100% translation to Oscar.  Ricky Gervais will be back to host and that will probably be the most familiar thing we know going in.  Check out the final predictions below, including the television categories:

Hateful_Eight_Payoff_FINALBEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

  • Bridge of Spies” (DreamWorks)
  • Brooklyn” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
  • The Hateful Eight” (The Weinstein Company)
  • The Revenant” (20th Century Fox)
  • Spotlight” (Open Road)

ALTERNATE: “Carol” (The Weinstein Company)

  • The HFPA do tend to lean towards foreign productions as seen with surprises like “Rush” but they can sometimes make cool choices.  Will we have more than five this year?

martian_poster_damonBEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

  • The Big Short” (Paramount Pictures)
  • Grandma” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Joy” (20th Century Fox)
  • The Martian” (20th Century Fox)
  • Trainwreck” (Universal Pictures)

ALTERNATE: “Spy” (20th Century Fox)

  • Mixed reviews for “Joy” won’t keep the HPFA back from pouncing.  A small film like “Grandma” could use this type of recognition but will the money-making “Spy” overtake it?

revenant1BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

  • Johnny Depp – “Black Mass”
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Revenant”
  • Michael Fassbender – “Steve Jobs”
  • Eddie Redmayne – “The Danish Girl”
  • Will Smith – “Concussion”

ALTERNATE: Bryan Cranston – “Trumbo”

  • Battle for the movie stars but is there a possibility for an indie player like Ian McKellen or Michael Caine to come up and steal a spot?

big_short_ver2BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

  • Steve Carell – “The Big Short”
  • Bradley Cooper – “Burnt”
  • Matt Damon – “The Martian”
  • Robert DeNiro – “The Intern”
  • Al Pacino – “Danny Collins”

ALTERNATE: Bill Hader – “Trainwreck”

  • This is the category for the veteran leading men, hot actors in Hollywood, and anyone else they want to throw in the mix.  Is there a Chiwetel Ejiofor in “Kinky Boots” out there?

carol-posterBEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

  • Cate Blanchett – “Carol”
  • Brie Larson – “Room”
  • Charlotte Rampling – “45 Years”
  • Saoirse Ronan – “Brooklyn”
  • Alicia Vikander – “The Danish Girl”

ALTERNATE: Rooney Mara – “Carol”

  • With category shifts for Mara and Vikander, are both making the cut?  Will it push out anyone else who will be campaigning there?  Can someone like Charlize Theron find some room?  Too many questions for this race.

joy_posterBEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

  • Blythe Danner – “I’ll See You In My Dreams”
  • Jennifer Lawrence – “Joy”
  • Amy Schumer – “Trainwreck”
  • Maggie Smith – “The Lady in the Van”
  • Lily Tomlin – “Grandma”

ALTERNATE: Meryl Streep – “Ricki and the Flash”

  • It’s hard to believe I’m predicting a Meryl Streep miss but what a strong five it looks like ahead of her.  They could default to her easily and even megastar Sandra Bullock.

creed_ver2BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Paul Dano – “Love & Mercy”
  • Tom Hardy – “The Revenant”
  • Mark Ruffalo – “Spotlight”
  • Mark Rylance – “Bridge of Spies”
  • Sylvester Stallone – “Creed”

ALTERNATE: Michael Keaton – “Spotlight”

  • Taking a gamble on both “Spotlight” guys not making it but something is going to give in this race with Sly Stallone picking up steam.  Don’t be shocked if SAG and GG overlap by just Mark Rylance.

spotlight_ver2BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Elizabeth Banks – “Love & Mercy”
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh – “The Hateful Eight”
  • Rachel McAdams – “Spotlight”
  • Kristen Stewart – “Clouds of Sils Maria”
  • Kate Winslet – “Steve Jobs”

ALTERNATE: Jessica Chastain – “The Martian”

  • With Supporting players out, it gives Jennifer Jason Leigh all the room to stretch her legs and get on a stage but could Kate Winslet or Kristen Stewart ruin the party?

bridge_of_spies_ver3BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

  • Todd Haynes – “Carol”
  • Alejandro G. Inarritu – “The Revenant”
  • Tom McCarthy – “Spotlight”
  • Ridley Scott – “The Martian”
  • Quentin Tarantino – “The Hateful Eight”

ALTERNATE: Steven Spielberg – “Bridge of Spies”

  • They love their big name directors but they can often go the “lone” director route and I’m seeing a possible “Carol” in Picture or Haynes in Director.  Not both.

steve_jobsBEST SCREENPLAY

  • Brooklyn” – Nick Hornby
  • Carol” – Phyllis Nagy
  • The Hateful Eight” – Quentin Tarantino
  • Spotlight” – Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
  • Steve Jobs” – Aaron Sorkin

ALTERNATE: “The Martian” – Drew Goddard

  • HFPA likes their big name writers and the frontrunners of each category but they may be swayed in a different direction this year.  “The Martian” nominated here would show considerable strength.

anomalisaBEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  • Anomalisa” (Paramount Pictures)
  • The Good Dinosaur” (Pixar)
  • Inside Out” (Pixar)
  • Minions” (Universal)
  • The Peanuts Movie” (20th Century Fox)

ALTERNATE: “Shaun the Sheep” (Lionsgate)

  • Pixar and Paramount death match.  Round 1.  Fight!

sicario_ver5BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Roque Baños – “In the Heart of the Sea”
  • Carter Burwell – “Carol”
  • Ennio Morricone – “The Hateful Eight”
  • Jóhann Jóhannson – “Sicario”
  • Thomas Newman – “Bridge of Spies”

ALTERNATE: James Horner – “Southpaw”

  • Are they feeling sentimental for James Horner?  Can they recognize the brilliant, unsung work of Michael Brook in “Brooklyn?”

concussionBEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • Concussion” – “So Long”
  • Fifty Shades of Grey” – “Earned It”
  • The Hunting Ground” – “Til It Happens to You”
  • Love & Mercy” – “One Kind of Love”
  • Spectre” – “Writing on the Wall”

ALTERNATE: “Creed” – “Grip”

  • The bigger the artist behind the song, the more likely to pop up.  Sam Smith, Lady Gaga, Leon Bridges, The Weeknd, and Brian Wilson.  Looks done.

sonofsaulBEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • Goodnight Mommy” (Austria)
  • Labyrinth of Lies” (Germany)
  • Mustang” (France)
  • The Second Mother” (Brazil)
  • Son of Saul” (Hungary)

ALTERNATE: “Rams” (Iceland)

  • I wouldn’t be shocked if this was our Oscar five. *correction* moved out “The Assassin” and “A Pigeon…” which are not included on the GG long list.  Thanks Shane.

*TV CATEGORIES*

empire_blurayBEST TV SERIES (DRAMA)

  • Better Call Saul” (AMC)
  • Downton Abbey” (PBS)
  • Empire” (FOX)
  • Game of Thrones” (HBO)
  • Mad Men” (AMC)

ALTERNATE: “Outlander” (Starz)

  • “Mad Men’s” farewell but “Game of Thrones” is heavily loved this year.  Can “Empire” show some support with amazing ratings?

unbreakable-kimmy-schmidt1BEST TV SERIES (COMEDY)

  • Master of None” (Netflix)
  • Orange is the New Black” (Netflix)
  • Transparent” (Amazon)
  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (Netflix)
  • Veep” (HBO)

ALTERNATE: “Silicon Valley” (HBO)

  • So many streaming programs in the mix.  Will HBO be the only representation for the comedy contenders in the top category?

American-Crime_aTV-fest_0BEST TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

  • American Crime” (ABC)
  • American Horror Story: Hotel” (FX)
  • Bessie” (HBO)
  • Fargo” (FX)
  • Wolf Hall” (PBS)

ALTERNATE: “Show Me a Hero” (HBO)

  • “Fargo” is having a stunning second season while “Bessie” and “American Crime” still remain favorites to upset.

better-call-saul3BEST ACTOR IN A TV SERIES (DRAMA)

  • Kyle Chandler– “Bloodline”
  • Jon Hamm – “Mad Men” (AMC)
  • Rami Malek – “Mr. Robot” (USA)
  • Bob Odenkirk – “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
  • Kevin Spacey – “House of Cards” (Netflix)

ALTERNATE: Terrence Howard – “Empire”

  • Jon Hamm’s goodbye or Rami Malek’s hello?

amazon-transparentBEST ACTOR IN A TV SERIES (COMEDY)

  • Aziz Ansari – “Master of None” (Netflix)
  • Billy Eichner – “Difficult People” (Hulu)
  • Will Forte – “The Last Man on Earth” (FOX)
  • Rob Lowe – “The Grinder” (FOX)
  • Jeffrey Tambor – “Transparent” (Amazon)

ALTERNATE: Patrick Stewart – “Blunt Talk” (Starz)

  • They love rewarding new comedies, so don’t be surprised to Aziz Ansari not only get nominated but win the award to boot.  Will Forte will challenge though.

markrylance_wolfhallBEST ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

  • Timothy Hutton – “American Crime” (ABC)
  • Oscar Isaac – “Show Me a Hero” (HBO)
  • David Oyelowo – “Nightingale” (HBO)
  • Mark Rylance – “Wolf Hall” (PBS)
  • Patrick Wilson – “Fargo” (FX)

ALTERNATE: Colin Farrell – “True Detective” (HBO)

  • Big stars in the running.  Will they go to a default choice like “True Detective” for what was a heavily mixed season?

violadavis_howtogetawaywithmurderBEST ACTRESS IN A TV SERIES (DRAMA)

  • Viola Davis – “How to Get Away with Murder” (ABC)
  • Taraji P. Henson – “Empire” (FOX)
  • Tatiana Maslany – “Orphan Black” (BBC)
  • Krysten Ritter – “Jessica Jones” (Netflix)
  • Robin Wright – “House of Cards” (Netflix)

ALTERNATE: Ruth Wilson – “The Affair” (Showtime)

  • Can Marvel find its first nod at the Globes for an actress with Krysten Ritter?  Can she squeeze past heavy favorites like Davis and Henson?

veep_ver2BEST ACTRESS IN A TV SERIES (COMEDY)

  • Ellie Kemper – “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmit” (Netflix)
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus – “Veep” (HBO)
  • Amy Poehler – “Parks and Recreation” (NBC)
  • Gina Rodriguez – “Jane the Virgin” (CW)
  • Constance Wu – “Fresh Off the Boat” (ABC)

ALTERNATE: Lily Tomlin – “Grace and Frankie” (Netflix)

  • ‘Goodbye’ for Poehler or ‘Hello’ for Wu?

Bessie-Queen-Latifah-as-BessieBEST ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

  • Kirsten Dunst – “Fargo” (FX)
  • Lady Gaga – “American Horror Story: Hotel” (FX)
  • Angela Lansbury – “Driving Miss Daisy” (PBS)
  • Nicole Kidman – “Grace of Monaco” (Lifetime)
  • Queen Latifah – “Bessie” (HBO)

ALTERNATE: Felicity Huffman – “American Crime”

  • Can they go back to their star-loving ways and cite Lady Gaga for one of the worst seasons of “American Horror Story” yet?

gameofthrones15_109BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SERIES, TV MOVIE, OR LIMITED SERIES

  • Jonathan Banks – “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
  • Tituss Burgess – “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (Netflix)
  • Ted Danson – “Fargo” (FX)
  • Peter Dinklage – “Game of Thrones” (HBO)
  • Christian Slater – “Mr. Robot” (USA)

ALTERNATE: T.J. Miller – “Silicon Valley” (HBO)

  • So many names in the mix.  Won’t be surprised if all five are wrong.

orange-is-the-new-black-crazy-eyesBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SERIES, TV MOVIE, OR LIMITED SERIES

  • Uzo Aduba – “Orange is the New Black” (Netflix)
  • Claire Foy – “Wolf Hall” (PBS)
  • Lena Headey – “Game of Thrones” (HBO)
  • Regina King – “American Crime” (ABC)
  • Jean Smart – “Fargo” (FX)

ALTERNATE: Christina Hendricks – “Mad Men” (AMC)

  • Feel good about three of the ladies but Christina Hendricks is a presumed spoiler for her last outing.

Include your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!