OSCARS: Final Guesses for an Uncommon Year, ‘Mad Max’ and ‘The Revenant’ Predicted to Lead with 10 Each

the-martianPencils and erasers down.  Send your tests to the front of the class.  2016 Oscar Predictions are officially closed here on Awards Circuit.  The Academy Awards will announce their nominations this Thursday tapping John Krasinski, Guillermo Del Toro, and Ang Lee to join Cheryl Boone Isaacs for all 24 categories once again.

If you’re looking at the final updates, you’ll notice a theme I’ve adopted.  I’m predicting a year where only one film will land with all the presumed “needed” categories to equal a Best Picture win and that film is “Spotlight.”  Considering that the film missed BAFTA director and ACE, it may be foolish but this year has been so unpredictable that might as well bring it up one more notch.  

Nine films are predicted to be nominated.  I’ve sadly decided to sit Lenny Abrahamson’s “Room” and John Crowley’s “Brooklyn” out on the sidelines, seeing them as potential vote-splitters with each other (weird mind set and I agree).  More sad, they are two films that center around women, and I think the Academy may throw some votes elsewhere.  Granted, my two included entries are no more “conventional” or “safe” but with the strong showing for both F. Gary Gray’s “Straight Outta Compton” and Denis Villenueve’s “Sicario,” I opted for the two to make the cut.  If a miracle occurs and we get ten Best Picture nominees, I feel “Brooklyn” would round it out.

mark_ruffaloOn the acting side, I was more conservative than I thought I’d be.  Including Matt Damon‘s work in “The Martian” after his Globe win and backing off my Power Hour theory that Helen Mirren would make the cut for “Woman in Gold” at the expense of Charlotte Rampling‘s revered work in “45 Years.”  Supporting Actor took a complete 180, as I took in Benicio Del Toro in “Sicario,” Tom Hardy in “The Revenant,” and Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight,” giving the boot to Idris Elba for “Beasts of No Nation” and giving Sylvester Stallone in “Creed” my alternate pick.

Supporting Actress keeps the standard four from the industry, with the standard films, with Rachel McAdams getting the last spot, leaving Jane Fonda‘s one-scene punch in “Youth” as the alternate.  

My balls to the wall pick came in Director as I’ve stuck with F. Gary Gray to land a shocking nomination ahead of Adam McKay (“The Big Short”), Steven Spielberg (“Bridge of Spies”), and Todd Haynes (“Carol”).  Foolish to some but I’d love to talk with the few that left off either Ben Affleck for “Argo” or Kathryn Bigelow for “Zero Dark Thirty” in 2012.

The rest of the categories, you can digest for yourselves.  We’ll be recording a LIVE, VIDEO edition of the Awards Circuit Power Hour on Thursday morning.  Come join us and get our instant reactions to the nominations as they’re announced.

Look at the updated predictions via the sidebar or by each category page.  Also check out the predicted tally of each BP nominee below.

Happy Oscar Day everyone!  Share your predictions in the comments!

CHECK OUT ALL CATEGORIES:

PICTURE |DIRECTOR | LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS |SUPPORTING ACTOR |SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN |CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING |VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE | LIVE ACTION SHORT | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT

PREDICTED NOMINATION TALLY

“The Big Short” – 4
“Bridge of Spies” – 6
“Carol” – 7
“Mad Max: Fury Road” – 10
“The Martian” – 7
“The Revenant” – 10
“Sicario” – 5
“Straight Outta Compton” – 3
“Spotlight”- 7

Others
“Brooklyn” – 3
“Ex Machina” – 1
“The Hateful Eight” – 2
“Room” – 2
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens” – 5

2015-2016 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
UPDATED – (JANUARY 13, 2016) – FINAL

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MotionPicture

  • “The Big Short”
  • “Bridge of Spies”
  • “Carol”
  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • “The Martian”
  • “The Revenant”
  • “Sicario”
  • “Spotlight”
  • “Straight Outta Compton”

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Directing

  • F. Gary Gray
    “Straight Outta Compton”
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu
    “The Revenant”
  • Tom McCarthy
     “Spotlight”
  • George Miller
     “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • Ridley Scott
     “The Martian”

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LeadActor

  • Bryan Cranston
    “Trumbo”
  • Matt Damon
    “The Martian”
  • Leonardo DiCaprio
    “The Revenant”
  • Michael Fassbender
    “Steve Jobs”
  • Eddie Redmayne
    “The Danish Girl”

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LeadActress

  • Cate Blanchett
    “Carol”
  • Brie Larson
    “Room”
  • Jennifer Lawrence
    “Joy”
  • Charlotte Rampling
    “45 Years”
  • Saoirse Ronan
    “Brooklyn”

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SupportingActor

  • Christian Bale
    “The Big Short”
  • Benicio Del Toro
    “Sicario”
  • Tom Hardy
    “The Revenant”
  • Mark Ruffalo
     “Spotlight”
  • Mark Rylance
    “Bridge of Spies”

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SupportingActress

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh
    “The Hateful Eight”
  • Rooney Mara
    “Carol”
  • Rachel McAdams
    “Spotlight”
  • Alicia Vikander
    “The Danish Girl”
  • Kate Winslet
    “Steve Jobs”

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OrigScreenplay

  • “Ex Machina”
  • “Inside Out”
  • “Sicario”
  • “Spotlight”
  • “Straight Outta Compton”

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AdaptedScreenplay

  • “The Big Short”
  • “Brooklyn”
  • “Carol”
  • “Room”
  • “Steve Jobs”

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AnimatedFeature

  • “Anomalisa”
  • “The Good Dinosaur”
  • “Inside Out”
  • “Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet”
  • “Shaun the Sheep”

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ArtDirection

  • “Bridge of Spies”
  • “The Danish Girl”
  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • “The Martian”
  • “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

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Cinematography

  • “Bridge of Spies”
  • “Carol”
  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • “The Revenant”
  • “Sicario”

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CostumeDesign

  • “Brooklyn”
  • “Carol”
  • “Cinderella”
  • “The Danish Girl”
  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”

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FilmEditing

  • “The Big Short”
  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • “The Martian”
  • “The Revenant”
  • “Spotlight”

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Makeup

  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • “Mr. Holmes”
  • “The Revenant”

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SoundMixing

  • “Bridge of Spies”
  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • “The Revenant”
  • “Sicario”
  • “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

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SoundEditing

  • “The Hateful Eight”
  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • “The Martian”
  • “The Revenant”
  • “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

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VisualEffects

  • “Jurassic World”
  • “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  • “The Martian”
  • “The Revenant”
  • “Star Wars: The Force Awakens””

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OrigScore

  • “Bridge of Spies”
  • “Carol”
  • “The Hateful Eight”
  • “Spotlight”
  • “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

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OrigSong

  • “Furious 7”
  • “The Hunting Ground”
  • “I’ll See You In My Dreams”
  • “Spectre”
  • “Youth”

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DocuFeature

  • “Amy”
  • “Best of Enemies”
  • “Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief”
  • “The Look of Silence”
  • “Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom”

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ForeignLang

  • “Labyrinth of Lies” (GERMANY)
  • “Mustang” (FRANCE)
  • “Son of Saul” (HUNGARY)
  • “Theeb” (JORDAN)
  • “A War” (DENMARK)

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DocuShort

  • “Body Team 12”
  • “50 Feet from Syria”
  • “A Girl in the River: The Price for Forgiveness”
  • “Last Day of Freedom”
  • “Starting Point”

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AnimatedShort

  • “If I Was God…”
  • “My Home”
  • “Prologue”
  • “Sanjay’s Super Team”
  • “World of Tomorrow”

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LiveActionShort

  • “Ave Maria”
  • “Bad Hunter”
  • “Day One”
  • “The Free Man”
  • “Winter Light”

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