Oscars 2016: Will Win/Should Win (Jack Moulton)

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Red Sparrow

BEST MOTION PICTURE

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Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Have Been Nominated: Anomalisa, Son of Saul, The End of the Tour

Just like last year, I’m changing my vote to Inarritu at the last minute. It’s a flawed film, but it’s also the film that’s easily the best of the lineup. Inarritu deserves to double dip, but it’s hard not to feel bad for Richard Linklater, who had the shot of a lifetime last year. The Big Short still has a chance but nah. Poor Spotlight though, building it up to watch it fall down. I wouldn’t fight that spoiler but I don’t know how I feel about a Best Picture winning just 2.

BEST DIRECTOR

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Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Could Win: George Miller
Should Have Been Nominated: Charlie Kaufman & Duke Johnson, Laszlo Nemes, James Ponsoldt

I’m not on the Miller train like everyone else so I’m kinda glad Inarritu is winning again. Pretty historic. I’m a huge fan of his death trilogy so all this acclaim is candy for my Jack store.

BEST ACTOR

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Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win: Michael Fassbender, by a slightly better groomed hair
Could Win: Michael Fassbender, but not really
Should Have Been Nominated: Christopher Abbott – James White, Geza Rohrig – Son of Saul, Abraham Attah – Beasts of No Nation

It’s Leo’s time. He deserves it. The Revenant was a herculean effort. I just kinda prefer Fassbender and how he absolutely nailed Steve Jobs. I don’t think he deserves it more though.

BEST ACTRESS

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Will Win: Brie Larson
Should Win: Brie Larson
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan
Should Have Been Nominated: Emily Blunt – Sicario, Bel Powley – The Diary of a Teenage Girl, Lily Tomlin – Grandma

I called Brie Larson back in September but I didn’t stick with it. I should’ve. She’s my favourite performance of the year and I’m glad she’s sweeping, completely unchallenged. Quite surreal really, I can’t imagine how she feels. Hopefully Saoirse will have her turn soon.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

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Will Win: Sylvester Stallone
Should Win: Tom Hardy
Could Win: Mark Rylance
Should Have Been Nominated: Walton Goggins – The Hateful Eight, Jason Segel – The End of the Tour, Jacob Tremblay – Room (though the latter two A24 guys are very obviously lead – throw Oscar Isaac for Machina and Alexander Skarsgard for Diary for accurate category placements)

Considering the strength of last year, Best Supporting Actor was really swinging at the fences. Mark Rylance is okay, Bale and Ruffalo are livewire hit-or-misses and prospective winner but misser of many precursors Sylvester Stallone is solid but couldn’t compete with past winners. Tom Hardy, who had no precursor love whatsoever, deserves to be here and gave the best supporting performance of the year. Stallone is the sentimental choice though and he’s at least second to Hardy, but a distant second.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

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Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Should Win: Rooney Mara/Jennifer Jason Leigh
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Have Been Nominated: Elizabeth Banks – Love & Mercy, Cynthia Nixon – James White, Olivia Cooke – Me and Earl and the Dying Girl

I guess new it girl Alicia Vikander will win. It feels so forced though. And it’s not a healthy character for cinema to celebrate in validating the way that transgendered characters should be represented. Plus a lot of people say Ex Machina helped their choice, though she soured on me on rewatch. I really wouldn’t mind a Kate Winslet spoiler, but she doesn’t make my own top 5. Rooney Mara is the best of the 5, but she’s definitely leading, whereas Jennifer Jason Leigh is my personal Best Supporting Actress so I’m divided on them as the best choice. I can deal with Stallone but I hope there’s a spoiler here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

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Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Ex Machina
Could Win: Straight Outta Compton ..?
Should Have Been Nominated: Sicario, Love & Mercy, The Stanford Prison Experiment

Consolation prize #1.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

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Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Carol, or Brooklyn, I struggle to choose. The Martian isn’t bad either.
Could Win: Room
Should Have Been Nominated: The End of the Tour, Anomalisa, The Revenant (underrated script)

Consolation prize #2.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

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Will Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Anomalisa
Could Win: Anomalisa
Should Have Been Nominated: If only The Little Prince was eligible. I’m not mourning Peanuts or Dinosaur’s loss.

In a perfect world, Charlie Kaufman would be taking his second Oscar. Damn you Pixar for having a good film out.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

the revenant

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Nominated: Victoria, Son of Saul, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl (..running out of choices)

Oscar #3. It’s coming. Weakest of his three films though.

BEST EDITING

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Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Have Been Nominated: The Martian, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, Carol

I’m no Mad Max fan, but it sorely deserves this. I’ve been wrong on my prediction for Editing for the past 2 years so I hope I’m not wrong again. The Revenant’s editing is pretty good though, I wouldn’t mind if it ended up winning.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

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Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Have Been Nominated: Carol, Brooklyn, Son of Saul

Hard category to call if you overthink it but Mad Max has been steamrolling and it would be an inspired win.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

revenant_makeup

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Nominated: Bone Tomahawk, Carol, Mr. Holmes

Of course, Mad Max has a very good shot. This might be the category that’s going to upset Oscar pools. However, I think the Academy will end up appreciating how makeup artists were in the trenches with Inarritu, Chivo and Leo, making convincing gashes. Not that Mad Max was an easy shoot but we’ll see. No guts, no glory.

BEST SOUND MIXING

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Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Nominated: Son of Saul

Again, sound mixers were in the trenches. The Revenant will probably get a few more techs than just Chivo but this could easily go to Mad Max though The Revenant did just win the Sound guild. It will probably take one of them.

BEST SOUND EDITING

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Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Have Been Nominated: n/a

They’ll probably divide them like this if they do at all. Mad Max deserves this one at the very least.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

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Will Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should Have Been Nominated: Ant-Man? I think they nailed it, really

Back into space we go, but not with Matt Damon. It will be a first in a long while of a Visual Effects winner not being a BP win, but it could go to Mad Max just as easily. They gotta give the biggest film of the year/decade/generation/all-time something, right?

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

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Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Should Win: Carol
Could Win: Bridge of Spies
Should Have Been Nominated: Anomalisa, Brooklyn

I wish Carter Burwell was winning for his banner year but I can’t fight the idea of Ennio Morricone finally winning a competitive Oscar. The film will need a rewatch, can’t say his score had much of an effect on me. Nor the film outside of Goggins and Leigh.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

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Will Win: The Hunting Ground
Should Win: The Hunting Ground, I guess?
Could Win: Fifty Shades of Grey
Should Have Been Nominated: Love & Mercy

Battle of the pop stars for not that very poppy songs. Could Fifty Shades of Grey really win? Looking forward to Diane Warren finally winning but you just know Lady Gaga will dominate the mic like she’s more overdue.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

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Will Win: Son of Saul
Should Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang
Should Have Been Nominated: The Second Mother, Victoria, Taxi Tehran

It couldn’t win at Cannes but the Oscar, and every precursor, is a pretty good tradeoff. Deserved too. Instant classic film.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

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Will Win: Amy
Should Win: Amy
Could Win: The Look of Silence
Should Have Been Nominated: Call Me Lucky, Finders Keepers, Best of Enemies

Amy was an either it wins or it’s snubbed case so it’s going to win. Unless The Look of Silence is too important. Which it probably is.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Should Win: World of Tomorrow
Could Win: Sanjay’s Super Team
Should Have Been Nominated: n/a

Partly wishful thinking because Don Hertzfeldt deserves it so much but hopefully its year long campaign wins out. I liked Bear Story though.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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Will Win: Body Team 12
Should Win: n/a
Could Win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of Shoah
Should Have Been Nominated: n/a

Bookies favourite.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will Win: Ave Maria
Should Win: n/a
Could Win: Shok
Should Have Been Nominated: n/a

Bookies favourite again. I don’t know. Lets wait and see.