Nearly always to follow an Oscar Predictions update, we move on to a new guild to venture off some guesses for awards season.  I weighed in with the Golden Globes two weeks ago, and already have some updates to make films being switched out of the season.  This week, let’s take a look at the coveted Screen Actors Guild awards. or more affectionately known as “SAG.”

SAG has become one of the best barometers of the Academy Awards in its over twenty year existence.  Last year, when Idris Elba won Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting in a Motion Picture for his beloved work in “Beasts of No Nation,” he became the first SAG winner to not translate to an Oscar nomination,  Considering how deep and competitive the Supporting Actor race was last year, it makes sense.

SAG, in many ways, becomes the crowning of the Prom King or Queen.  The more popular you are, the better chance you have within the group.  Obviously, the same can be said for the Academy.

Always believing that your Oscar Predictions should reflect a narrative your suggesting will ride out during the season, it’s important to look at all the major guild components.  Are you predicting a Marcia Gay Harden in your lineup?  Is there a last minute supporting to lead shift that can occur?

Quick thoughts before you venture downward.  Larger casts, filled with people they know tend to do very well with the group.  Once in a while, they rally behind something they strongly respect like “Hustle & Flow” or “Dallas Buyers Club.”  Going with my season narrative prediction, I suspect “Moonlight” could have the power to do it.

In the acting races, they love to reward people that they missed out on before the group was established for awards.  With that in mind, someone like Warren Beatty in “Rules Don’t Apply” may appeal, despite any negative reactions the film may get.

Smaller studios also have the power to run success SAG campaigns as seen with Sarah Silverman popping up last year for “I Smile Back.”  Looking at Rebecca Hall’s work in “Christine,” she could fit that bill.

Look at the predictions for the film categories below:

moonlight_aliOUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE

  1. FENCES” (Paramount Pictures)
    DENZEL WASHINGTON / Troy Maxson
    VIOLA DAVIS / Rose Maxson
    MYKELTI WILLIAMSON / Gabriel Maxson
    STEPHEN HENDERSON / Jim Bono
    JOVAN ADEPO / Cory Maxson
    RUSSELL HORNSBY / Lyons Maxson
    SANIYYA SIDNEY / Raynell Maxson
    TOUSSAINT RAPHAEL ABESSOLO / Troy’s Father
  2. LOVING” (Focus Features)
    JOEL EDGERTON / Richard Loving
    RUTH NEGGA / Mildred Loving
    NICK KROLL / Bernie Cohen
    MICHAEL SHANNON / Grey Villet
    MARTON CSOKAS / Sheriff Brooks
    JON BASS / Phil Hirschkop
    BILL CAMP / Frank Beazley
  3. BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK” (Sony Pictures)
    JOE ALWYN / Billy Lynn
    KRISTEN STEWART / Kathryn Lynn
    CHRIS TUCKER / Albert
    GARRETT HEDLUND / Sgt. David Dime
    VIN DIESEL / Shroom
    STEVE MARTIN / Norm Oglesby
  4. SILENCE” (Paramount Pictures)
    ANDREW GARFIELD / Father Sebastião  Rodrigues
    ADAM DRIVER / Father Francisco Garrpe
    LIAM NEESON / Father Cristóvão Ferreira
    TADANOBU ASANO / “unknown interpreter role”
    CIARAN HINDS / “Father Valignano”
    SHINYA TSUKAMOTO / “Mokich”
    YOSUKE KUBOZUKA / “Kichijio”
    ISSEY OGATA / “Inoue”
  5. MOONLIGHT” (A24)
    ANDRE HOLLAND / Kevin
    MAHERSHALA ALI / Juan
    NAOMIE HARRIS / “Character”
    JHARREL JEROME / “Teen Kevin”
    TREVANTE RHODES / “Chiron”
    ASHTON SANDERS / “Teen Chiron”
    EDSON JEAN / “Mr. Pierce”

ALTERNATES: “La La Land” (Summit Entertainment), “20th Century Women” (A24), “Manchester by the Sea” (Roadside Attractions), “The Birth of a Nation” (Fox Searchlight Pictures), “Arrival” (Paramount Pictures)

caseyaffleck_manchesterbytheseaBEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  1. MICHAEL KEATON / “Ray Kroc” – “THE FOUNDER” (The Weinstein Company)
  2. DENZEL WASHINGTON / “Troy Maxson” – “FENCES” (Paramount Pictures)
  3. CASEY AFFLECK / “Lee Chandler” – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA” (Roadside Attractions)
  4. JAKE GYLLENHAAL / “Tony Hastings” – “NOCTURNAL ANIMALS” (Focus Features)
  5. JOEL EDGERTON / “Richard Loving” – “LOVING” (Focus Features)

ALTERNATES: Nate Parker – “The Birth of a Nation” (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Tom Hanks – “Sully” (Warner Bros.), Ryan Gosling – “La La Land” (Summit Entertainment), Viggo Mortensen – “Captain Fantastic” (Bleecker Street), Andrew Garfield – “Silence” (Paramount Pictures)

Jeff Nichols - Loving

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  1. VIOLA DAVIS / “Rose Maxson” – “FENCES” (Paramount Pictures)
  2. ANNETTE BENING / “Dorothea Fields” – “20TH CENTURY WOMEN” (A24)
  3. RUTH NEGGA / “Mildred Loving” – “LOVING” (Focus Features)
  4. EMMA STONE / “Mia Dolan” – “LA LA LAND” (Summit Entertainment)
  5. REBECCA HALL / “Christine Chubbuck” – “CHRISTINE” (The Orchard)

ALTERNATES: Meryl Streep – “Florence Foster Jenkins” (Paramount Pictures), Amy Adams – “Nocturnal Animals” (Focus Features), Isabelle Huppert – “Elle” (Sony Pictures Classics”), Emily Blunt – “The Girl on the Train” (Universal Pictures), Jessica Chastain – “Miss Sloane” (EuropaCorp)

silence_neesonBEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  1. LIAM NEESON / “Father Cristóvão Ferreira” – “SILENCE” (Paramount Pictures)
  2. HUGH GRANT / “St. Clair Bayfield” – “FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS” (Paramount Pictures)
  3. STEVE MARTIN / “Norm Oglesby” – “BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK” (Sony Pictures)
  4. WARREN BEATTY / “Howard Hughes” – “RULES DON’T APPLY” (Warner Bros.)
  5. MICHAEL SHANNON / “Unknown Detective Role” – “NOCTURNAL ANIMALS” (Focus Features)

ALTERNATES: Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight” (A24), Armie Hammer – “The Birth of a Nation” (Fox Searchlight Pictures), Aaron Eckhart – “Sully” (Warner Bros.), Kyle Chandler – “Manchester by the Sea” (Roadside Attractions), Billy Crudup – “20th Century Women” (A24)

20th-century-women-mike-mills-1000x520BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  1. MICHELLE WILLIAMS / “Randi” – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA” (Roadside Attractions)
  2. NAOMIE HARRIS / “Unknown Character” – “MOONLIGHT” (A24)
  3. GRETA GERWIG / “Abbie” – “20TH CENTURY WOMEN” (A24)
  4. ELLE FANNING / “Julie” – “20TH CENTURY WOMEN” (A24)
  5. NICOLE KIDMAN / “Sue Brierley” – “LION” (The Weinstein Company)

ALTERNATES: Rachel Weisz – “The Light Between Oceans” (Dreamworks), Kristen Stewart – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (Sony Pictures), Octavia Spencer – “Hidden Figures” (20th Century Fox), Laura Dern – “The Founder” (The Weinstein Company), Dakota Fanning – “American Pastoral” (Lionsgate)

jungle book lightBEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE

  1. ROGUE ONE: A STAR WARS STORY” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  2. THE JUNGLE BOOK” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  3. CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR” (Marvel)
  4. ARRIVAL” (Paramount Pictures)
  5. BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK” (Sony Pictures)

ALTERNATES: “Jason Bourne” (Universal Pictures), “Assassin’s Creed” (20th Century Fox), “Doctor Strange” (Marvel), “Silence” (Paramount Pictures), “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” (Warner Bros.)

Share your own predictions in the comments below!