The National Board of Review has the distinct honor of kicking off the precursor season this year. On Tuesday, Nov. 29, they will unveil their favorite films and performances of 2016. In the last six years, their Best Film winner has gone on to a nomination for Oscar’s Best Picture five times (naming “A Most Violent Year” in 2014). In the 2000s, they went 9 for 10 on Best Picture nominees (naming “Quills” in 2000); ditto for the 1990s (naming “Gods and Monsters” in 1998). Their outliers always seem to be a film that on paper “made sense” for a possible BP nomination. Point is, if you see it win the NBR, it’s safe money to put it on your Best Picture predictions and leave it there. The key is finding what film that will be.