Living as a website that focuses on Oscar Predictions, to ensure you are presenting the best “guesses” on what could be chosen by the Academy, you have to look at the awards season as a whole.
As Telluride and TIFF sit firmly behind us, and the New York Film Festival heats up with big premieres like “Last Flag Flying,” we’re taking our first stab at the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, better known as the Golden Globe Awards.
Dubbed as “star-f*ckers” for decades, the HFPA has offered opportunities for such contenders like Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”) and Isabelle Huppert (“Elle”) to solidify themselves in an Oscar race. On the other hand, the group can often convince the pundit community to believe in citations like Aaron Taylor-Johnson (“Nocturnal Animals”) or Aaron Sorkin (“Steve Jobs”) when they will ultimately come up short.
We must be on the lookout for films that could make some noise with one group but not the other. That’s the beauty of predicting the Oscars. They tell a story of either the great movies that the year offered or the tragic omissions that will go down in history.
As we maneuver through the season, predictions will come for all the high-profile awards bodies (SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA). If you want to successfully predict one, predict them all.
Check out the predictions for the Golden Globes down below:
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
- “Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Darkest Hour” (Focus Features) – PREDICTED WINNER
- “Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)
- “The Post” (20th Century Fox)
- “The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
ALTERNATE: “Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)
With a group of international journalists, they are more privy to selecting the more acclaimed and less orthodox pictures that Oscar can be more conservative towards. “Call Me By Your Name” is just the type of film that could likely embrace while the British voting bloc can find solace in films like “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” and “The Shape of Water.” Since they tend to be big on Aaron Sorkin (he’s been nominated for nearly every high-profile script he’s written), I wonder if they’ll bite for his first directorial effort and place “Molly’s Game” among the nominees?
BEST PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
- “Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
- “Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Get Out” (Universal Pictures)
- “The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox)
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures) – PREDICTED WINNER
ALTERNATE: “The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios)
This is usually the category where the studios take liberties with their categorizations. Past winners such as “The Martian” by Ridley Scott were criticized for their classifications. Even the nominees have raised eyebrows. One recent choice was Spike Jonze’s “Her,” which found its way into the lineup despite lacking any real laughs. This year, we can expect some of the same as films like “Battle of the Sexes” and “Downsizing” have light tones despite taking on serious subject matter. One of the first tests for Universal Pictures’ “Get Out” will be with the HFPA, as many pundits and internet bots believe its destined for a Best Picture slot by Oscar. Let’s see who begins to bite.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (DRAMA)
- Steve Carell, “Last Flag Flying” (Amazon Studios)
- Andrew Garfield, “Breathe” (Bleecker Street)
- Jake Gyllenhaal, “Stronger” (Lionsgate)
- Tom Hanks, “The Post” (20th Century Fox)
- Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” (Focus Features) – PREDICTED WINNER
ALTERNATE: Jeremy Renner, “Wind River” (The Weinstein Company)
With a year deemed over for Best Actor, it’ll be interesting what studios decide to push. After “Darkest Hour” premiered at Telluride, it’s been widely believed that the Oscar already has its new owner in mind with star Gary Oldman. When a performance tends to run the gamut in a category, Oscar can yield some interesting choices. Look back at year’s when Jeff Bridges (“Crazy Heart”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln” and “There Will Be Blood”), and Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”) ran their respective categories. Some interesting choices followed suit throughout the year. We expect Andrew Garfield to follow up on his “Hacksaw Ridge” love while Jake Gyllenhaal will hope to start the train on his long overdue second Oscar nomination. We await the word on performers like Steve Carell and Tom Hanks.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
- Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
- Matt Damon, “Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)
- James Franco, “The Disaster Artist” (A24)
- Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox) – PREDICTED WINNER
- Kumail Nanjani, “The Big Sick” (Amazon Studios)
ALTERNATE: Matt Damon, “Suburbicon” (Paramount Pictures)
It’s interesting to see how much potential there is for double nominees among the men this year despite it being deemed a “weak year.” Steve Carell will have both his works in “Last Flag Flying” and “Battle of the Sexes” for the picking while Matt Damon will lay his hopes on two Paramount Pictures films, “Downsizing” and “Suburbicon.” Hell, even Hugh Jackman can find his way with both “The Greatest Showman” and the superhero film “Logan,” which is likely to pick up some votes. I’d also watch out for Adam Sandler if he’s declared Lead by the Globes for his work in “The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected).” People like Ben Stiller (“Brad’s Status”) or even Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”) could also pop up surprisingly.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (DRAMA)
- Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game” (STX Entertainment)
- Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
- Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” (NEON) – PREDICTED WINNER
- Meryl Streep, “The Post” (20th Century Fox)
- Kate Winslet, “Wonder Wheel” (Amazon Studios)
ALTERNATE: Jennifer Lawrence, “mother!” (Paramount Pictures)
This category, of many of the ones being predicted, is all contingent on genre placements. Films like “I, Tonya” or “Wonder Wheel” feel like they can be baited in the comedy arena. With that said, the very international voting group will likely be attracted to the works of Sally Hawkins while American performers like Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence will battle for their own spots. I’d also keep a close eye on Diane Kruger, whose work in Germany’s official submission “In the Fade,” seems like it can follow the same path set by Isabelle Huppert just one year earlier.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL)
- Annette Bening, “Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Judi Dench, “Victoria and Abdul” (Focus Features)
- Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
- Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” (A24)
- Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes” (Fox Searchlight Pictures) – PREDICTED WINNER
ALTERNATE: Sally Hawkins, “Maudie” (Sony Pictures Classics)
This category seems very Best Actor, Comedy or Musical-2013. This is when Christian Bale (“American Hustle”), eventual winner Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street”), Bruce Dern (“Nebraska”), Oscar Isaac (“Inside Llewyn Davis”), and Joaquin Phoenix (“Her”) made the lineup, illustrating one of the strongest ever seen at the Globes. The five ladies listed above would seem to follow suit, and what’s worth noting: this could be another situation where more of these women translate to Oscar rather than the usual Drama category.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project” (A24) – PREDICTED WINNER
- Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Ben Mendelsohn, “Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)
- Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
- Mark Rylance, “Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)
ALTERNATE: Daniel Craig, “Logan Lucky” (Bleecker Street)
Still waiting to flush itself out, the Supporting Actor category can yield plenty of surprises, especially at the Globes. Sometimes can they can kickstart an inevitable sweep (i.e. J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”) and other times, they throw you a curveball (i.e. Tom Cruise in “Tropic Thunder” or Will Ferrell in “The Producers”). This is why we’ll be keeping close tabs on Daniel Craig’s work in “Logan Lucky,” which could find some love from the HFPA. Once in a while, the Globes curtail a narrative that the critics are trying to tell (i.e. Tom Hanks will receive a Supporting Actor nomination for “Saving Mr. Banks”). Could that happen for presumed frontrunner Willem Dafoe? And could Michael Stuhlbarg leapfrog over co-star Armie Hammer or just join alongside him?
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
- Claire Foy, “Breathe” (Bleecker Street)
- Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” (NEON)
- Melissa Leo, “Novitiate” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
- Kristin Scott Thomas, “Darkest Hour” (Focus Features) – PREDICTED WINNER
ALTERNATE: Hong Chau, “Downsizing” (Paramount Pictures)
This category has the potential to become like Best Supporting Actor in 2015. This is when the Globes delivered Paul Dano (“Love and Mercy”), Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”), Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”), Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”), and Globe winner Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”). Only two of those listed ended up translating to the Academy Awards. With a category that’s this wide open, we could end up with a different lineup each and every award show. The Globes should respond to Kristin Scott Thomas, as proven by her previous nominations including “I’ve Loved You So Long,” while Claire Foy should benefit from love for “The Crown” and ride in with co-star Andrew Garfield. This will also offer up the first test for presumed contenders Allison Janney and Octavia Spencer.
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
- Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures) – PREDICTED WINNER
- Luca Guadagnino, “Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)
- Steven Spielberg, “The Post” (20th Century Fox)
- Joe Wright, “Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)
ALTERNATE: Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Tom Ford (“Nocturnal Animals”), Ridley Scott (“The Martian”), David Fincher and Ava DuVernay (“Gone Girl” and “Selma”), and Paul Greengrass (“Captain Phillips”). These are all former Golden Globe nominees that ultimately came up short when it came time to encounter the Academy. Luca Guadagnino seems like someone that the Globes will embrace heavily but may ultimately miss out on Oscar’s attention. But who knows? Based on past history, Christopher Nolan can find himself in this boat too as he was previously nominated for “Inception” before Oscar ignored. Martin McDonagh also has the possibility to follow the road set by Wes Anderson during his run for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and run the gauntlet leading to nomination morning.
- James Ivory, “Call Me By Your Name” (Sony Pictures Classics) – PREDICTED WINNER
- Anthony McCarten, “Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)
- Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game” (STX Entertainment)
- Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
- Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
ALTERNATE: Woody Allen, “Wonder Wheel” (Amazon Studios)
For two years in a row, the winner of the Best Screenplay category has NOT gone on to win the Academy Award for either Original or Adapted. That’s surprising considering that from 2007 to 2015, the winner went on to the Oscar. This year, with the Original Screenplay race very competitive and the Adapted Screenplay far less than, someone like Aaron Sorkin and Guillermo del Toro will be likely inclusions. This could also start the road for James Ivory, who has never won a Golden Globe or an Oscar.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- “The Boss Baby” (20th Century Fox)
- “Coco” (Pixar) – PREDICTED WINNER
- “Ferdinand” (20th Century Fox)
- “The LEGO Batman Movie” (Warner Bros.)
- “Loving Vincent” (Good Deed Entertainment)
ALTERNATE: “Cars 3” (Pixar)
This category has only been around since 2006, where they anointed the first inception of Pixar’s “Cars.” Nine of the eleven winners have been from Walt Disney/Pixar. Those two variations included “The Adventures of Tintin” over the sequel “Cars 2” and eventual winner “Rango,” and “How to Train Your Dragon 2” over “Big Hero 6.” Interesting that both those films either went on to be snubbed by the Academy or lose the Oscar altogether. Since this year is struggling to find any traction with quality animation, all the hopes and dreams are lying in the world of the masterful “Loving Vincent” and the sight unseen “Coco.”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Carter Burwell, “Wonderstruck” (Amazon Studios)
- Dario Marianelli, “Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)
- Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
- Hans Zimmer, “Dunkirk” (Warner Bros.)
- John Williams, “The Post” (20th Century Fox)
ALTERNATE: Michael Giacchino, “Coco” (Pixar)
As you may have noticed, this round of predictions does not include the yet untitled film from Paul Thomas Anderson and “Star Wars: The Last Jedi.” There always seems to be a film or two that aren’t seen in time for nominations (i.e. “Silence” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”). This would explain the exclusion of Daniel Day-Lewis in Lead Actor and in this category, composers Jonny Greenwood and John Williams (though predicted for “The Post”). Prolific composers like Thomas Newman (“Victoria and Abdul”) and Nick Cave and Warren Ellis (“Wind River”) may find some traction here and as always, we have to be prepared for a curveball that doesn’t seem to fit the category narrative (i.e. “Nomad” in 2006). Should we look at Christopher Willis from “The Death of Stalin” or Joseph Trapanese for “Only the Brave?”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- “Evermore” from “Beauty and the Beast” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Coco’s Theme” from “Coco” (Pixar)
- “It Ain’t Fair” from “Detroit” (Annapurna Pictures)
- “Home” from “Ferdinand” (20th Century Fox)
- “Come Alive” from “The Greatest Showman” (20th Century Fox) – PREDICTED WINNER
ALTERNATE: “Dusk Till Dawn” from “The Mountain Between Us” (20th Century Fox)
This will begin to fill out as more songs present themselves as films open. The ones listed are the ones we know are in the mix but plenty more will be revealed. Big names like Sia will be in the mix while the Walt Disney machine will place the songs from “Beauty and the Beast” and “Coco” in front of the right people. We’ll also watch out for the song from “mother!” to make some noise since that seems to be well received, even if the film as a whole is not.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
- “In the Fade” from Germany, dir. Fatih Akin
- “A Fantastic Woman” from Chile, dir. Sebastián Lelio
- “First They Killed My Father” from Cambodia, dir. Angelina Jolie – PREDICTED WINNER
- “Happy End” from Austria, dir. Michael Haneke
- “The Square” from Sweden, dir. Ruben Östlund
ALTERNATE: “Tom of Finland” from Finland, dir. Dome Karukoski
There are plenty of possibilities on the table. The Globes will likely run towards Angelina Jolie for her powerful “First They Killed My Father” and Michael Haneke seems like a default choice. They will love to embrace the potential history-making run for “A Fantastic Woman” while “The Square” is likely the de facto frontrunner since Cannes.
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| MOTION PICTURE | DIRECTOR |
| LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE |
| PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING | VISUAL EFFECTS |
| ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG |
| FOREIGN LANGUAGE |