Voting for the 2019 Screen Actors Guild Awards opened today for the unknown nominating committee.
With a historic film year on hand, boasting some of the strongest films and performances presented this decade, it’s difficult to gauge just which films will bubble to the top of their ballots. A SAG nomination is a key indicator not just for an Academy Award nomination but also for probable winners.
In the acting races, and only since the SAG Awards first began back in 1994, only two performances have won an Oscar without a SAG nomination: Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” in Supporting Actress and Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” in Supporting Actor.
There have been only three films that have won Best Picture without a SAG Cast Ensemble nomination; Mel Gibson’s “Braveheart,” Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water,” and last year’s “Green Book” from Peter Farrelly.
As seen on The Circuit Hub’s latest predictions for the SAG Awards, there are some films and actors who are well-positioned to make a strong play with the voting bloc.
Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” looks tailor-made for a Cast Ensemble nomination with a barrage of celebrities that include Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Al Pacino, and more. Tarantino has won this prize before with 2008’s “Inglourious Basterds.”
Netflix has been pushing everything they can with Martin Scorsese’s “The Irishman,” which should nab attention for veterans Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci. A nomination in the top category should be safe to check off at this point.
After those two, your guess is as good as mine as films like “Parasite” from Bong Joon-ho, “Knives Out” from Rian Johnson, and “Dolemite Is My Name” from Craig Brewer all feel like high probabilities.
In my declaration that 2019 could be the year of Asian cinema, Lulu Wang’s “The Farewell” could do considerable damage in Cast Ensemble, along with the acting races for Awkawfina and Zhou Shuzhen, who are both on the bubble.
There are certainly safer choices to include in your own prediction, all of which will include double doses of the same actor. Already mentioning the two noms for Pacino, not including an almost certain third mention in the BEST MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE category, Adam Driver could pop up multiple times with “Marriage Story” and “The Report.” In regards to Pacino, the SAG voting body is notorious for awarding veterans they couldn’t in the past when they didn’t exist. Look at winners such as Robert Duvall for “A Civil Action,” Christopher Walken for “Catch Me If You Can,” and Denzel Washington for “Fences.” Pacino could step into a second Oscar (by accident?).
Driver’s co-star from “Marriage Story,” Scarlett Johansson could see her name multiple times with Baumbach’s film, along with “Jojo Rabbit.”
Margot Robbie could see her name on many different lists including Cast Ensemble for Tarantino’s film, as well as “Bombshell,” which she could be nominated in Supporting Actress.
Will the unpredictable nominating committee fall for the “unconventional” contenders like “Uncut Gems” with Adam Sandler, “Waves” with Sterling K. Brown, or “Her Smell” with Elisabeth Moss?
The SAG committee is also notorious for those nominations that don’t usually go anywhere else during the circuit. See Sarah Silverman in “I Smile Back” or Helen Mirren in “Woman in Gold.” This year, Mary Kay Place could find herself in the Best Actress race for IFC Films’ “Diane” or we could see Jamie Bell ride a wave with Taron Egerton for “Rocketman” in Supporting Actor.
Check out the latest predictions that updated on Nov. 12 but lookout for new movements and removals on Monday, Nov. 18.
Screen Actors Guild nomination voting ends Sunday, Dec. 8 at 5:00 PM PT. The official SAG nominations will be announced on Wednesday, Dec. 11.