Previous box office openers on President’s Day Weekend include “Black Panther,” “Deadpool” and “Fifty Shades of Grey.” While this weekend does not include any such heavy hitters, it should still be respectably busy. The biggest opener is likely to be Fox’s sci-fi offering “Alita: Battle Angel.” It will try to beat out the second weekend of “The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part” and a crop of newcomers that includes “Happy Death Day 2U” and “Isn’t It Romantic.”
“Alita: Battle Angel” opens in almost 3,800 theaters. It already managed $2.4M from Wednesday night previews. The film’s $175M offers a lofty benchmark that initial tracking suggests will be difficult to make back.
The reviews for “Alita: Battle Angel” are mostly mixed. This might be another hurdle for a film that looks like it may have a difficult time finding an audience. Fox is aiming for a $30M run over the first five days, which likely translates to $23M over the three day frame.
“The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part” disappointed in its opening weekend, but looks to post a small decline this weekend to get back on track. It should be neck-and-neck with “Alita: Battle Angel” for the overall crown and looks to clock in around $21M.
Vying for third and fourth place are the newcomers “Happy Death Day 2U” from Universal and “Isn’t It Romantic” from WB and New Line. Each will likely bring in around $20M over the four day weekend, with “Isn’t It Romantic” likely to get an early boost from its Valentine’s Day themes.
“Happy Death Day 2U” is Blumhouse’s sequel to “Happy Death Day,” which finished with a domestic haul of $55.7M. The sequel looks likely to finish well short of that total, but against its modest budget of $9M, it still looks like almost a guarantee to be a financial success.
“Isn’t It Romantic” looks to post relatively similar numbers to star, Rebel Wilson’s, previous opener, “How to be Single.” That film finished with $46.9M after a $17.8M opening weekend. Those numbers are a decent baseline for “How to be Single,” but IMDb page views suggest it could fall short of those levels.
“What Men Want” looks likely to capture the fifth spot with a dip around 40%. That would give it an $11M weekend and bring its total to $34M by the end of the weekend.
The rest of the top ten contains holdovers, including “Green Book,” which looks to cash in on the final weekend before the Oscars next Sunday.
THREE-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST
- Alita: Battle Angel (3,790 theaters) – $23.0 M
- The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (4,303 theaters) – $21.0 M
- Happy Death Day 2U (3,207 theaters) – $17.0 M
- Isn’t It Romantic (3,444 theaters) – $16.0 M
- What Men Want (2,912 theaters) – $11.1 M
- Cold Pursuit (2,630 theaters) – $6.5 M
- The Upside (2,781 theaters) – $5.4 M
- Glass (2,449 theaters) – $3.8 M
- The Prodigy (2,530 theaters) – $2.8 M
- Green Book (1,618 theaters) – $2.6 M
FOUR-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST
- The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (4,303 theaters) – $26.5 M
- Alita: Battle Angel (3,790 theaters) – $26.5 M
- Happy Death Day 2U (3,207 theaters) – $20.0 M
- Isn’t It Romantic (3,444 theaters) – $20.0 M
- What Men Want (2,912 theaters) – $13.3 M
- Cold Pursuit (2,630 theaters) – $7.7 M
- The Upside (2,781 theaters) – $6.6 M
- Glass (2,449 theaters) – $4.6 M
- The Prodigy (2,530 theaters) – $3.3 M
- Green Book (1,618 theaters) – $3.1 M