Box Office Preview: ‘How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World’ Looks to Lead Oscar Weekend

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This weekend offers a chance for the box office to turn the page on what has been a slow start to the year. One of Hollywood’s more successful franchises offers up its third film with “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.” The film opens in over 4,200 theaters and headlines a weekend filled with mostly holdovers and expansions, as several high profile releases are set for the Spring.

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” has the smallest budget of the franchise’s three films at $129M. It looks set to post debut numbers in line with its predecessors in the $40-50M range. Its predecessors raked in domestic hauls of $217M and $177M, respectively. But notably, the franchise’s second film benefitted from a much larger global audience. Its worldwide total came in at $621M versus the original’s $495M. Having already generated $181M from 49 global markets, the film already looks headed to financial success. Look for an opening weekend just short of $45M.

Alita: Battle Angel” looks likely to finish in second place this weekend after it slightly over-performed last weekend. It is unclear how much of its audience it will be able to hold onto. Expect a decline of around 50%, which would put its weekend just short of $15M. That would bring its domestic run to $63M, which is still well short of its $170M budget.

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part” likely shares a significant portion of its audience with “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.” To that end, it is possible that it will post a larger than usual decline in its third weekend. If it were to drop by around 45%, that would leave it around $11M and just ahead of the movie likely to finish in fourth place.

That fourth place finisher is the expanding “Fighting With My Family.” A finish around $10M looks likely for the wrestling-themed comedy, so it would not be a surprise to see it wind up finishing in third.

 

Isn’t It Romantic,” which continues along the trajectory of other Rebel Wilson lead films, looks likely to come in around $8M in its second weekend. That would represent a decline of just over 40% and bring its domestic total to $35M.

The rest of the top ten features holdovers that should post totals between $2M and $7M.

  • How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (4,259 theaters) – $44.0 M
  • Alita: Battle Angel (3,820 theaters) – $14.8 M
  • The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (3,833 theaters) – $11.4 M
  • Fighting with My Family (2,711 theaters) – $10.0 M
  • Isn’t It Romantic (3,444 theaters) – $8.1 M
  • What Men Want (2,389 theaters) – $6.3 M
  • Happy Death Day 2U (3,212 theaters) – $4.5 M
  • The Upside (2,148 theaters) – $3.6 M
  • Cold Pursuit (2,320 theaters) – $3.3 M
  • Glass (1,440 theaters) – $2.3 M

Are you planning to see anything this weekend? Sound off in the comments to let us know!

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