It’s no secret that the box office year is off to a rough start. January and February lagged a full 27% behind last year’s receipts. This weekend will be the first to feature a truly major release. “Captain Marvel” will swoop into theaters and dominate the box office this weekend. In just the next three days, it will become the highest grossing release of 2019.
“Captain Marvel” will be the first +$100M opening of the year, opening in a March record of 4,310 theaters. With the amount of IMAX, 3D and other premium screens, the film will undoubtedly get off to a strong start. Disney is forecasting $125M, which feels like an extremely conservative estimate. Based on the openings of other high profile releases, the film looks likely to cross the $150M mark.
According to Fandango.com, the film is currently outpacing “Wonder Woman,” “Aquaman,” “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” “Thor: Ragnarok” and “Guardians of the Galaxy.” That early strength means the film could be in line for a monster opening. There is a chance it threatens the March record of $174.7M set by “Beauty and the Beast.” It faces very little competition this weekend, so theaters will be able to show it on as many screens as demand will support.
While “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” will be giving up the box office crown in this, its third weekend, it will still remain in the top two. The film is expected to pull in around $17M, which would represent a 44% drop. Look for it to finish the weekend at around $120M.
“Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral” will drop by nearly 60%, but given its modest production budget, the film is already likely a moneymaker for Tyler Perry and Lionsgate. Look for the film to pull in around $11M and finish the weekend around $45M.
“Alita: Battle Angel” and “The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part” each look poised to deliver around $4M this weekend. That figure would put them just ahead of “Green Book,” which will continue its post-Oscars run with around $3M.
The rest of the top ten will be filled with quiet holdovers, so this weekend is all about “Captain Marvel” and just how high it will go.
- Captain Marvel (4,310 theaters) – $155.0 M
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (4,037 theaters) – $16.8 M
- Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral (2,442 theaters) – $11.4 M
- Alita: Battle Angel (2,374 theaters) – $3.9 M
- The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (2,930 theaters) – $3.6 M
- Green Book (2,094 theaters) – $3.2 M
- Fighting with My Family (2,455 theaters) – $3.0 M
- Greta (2,417 theaters) – $2.3 M
- Isn’t It Romantic (2,223 theaters) – $2.0 M
- Apollo 11 (405 theaters) – $1.3 M