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Awards: Golden Globes Impact On Oscar

golden globes oscars

Most years, one can somewhat safely dismiss the Golden Globes when it comes to wide-reaching Academy Award impact. This year, however, things are a bit more complicated than that. The Golden Globe Awards were held on Sunday evening, right in the midst of Oscar voting. That presents a wrinkle. Were members of the Academy watching with ballots not yet filled out while the Hollywood Foreign Press Association chimed in? Or, did voters make their selections prior to the HFPA? Maybe they ignored them completely? All are possibilities. Today, we’ll discuss them a little bit, in the direct aftermath of Academy voting having ended on Tuesday night.

There are basically three scenarios to consider when pondering this whole situation. One is far less likely than the other two, but all three are at least worth briefly pondering. Whenever the Academy makes its selections without Guild help, especially the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild, wild things can happen. Would it be that crazy to think that some voters turned to the Globes when figuring out their Oscar picks to end Phase One?

Golden Globe Awards 1

The first scenario is that the Golden Globes did not impact the impending Oscar nominations one bit. More likely, a voter might consider the winners when filling out their own winner list, as opposed to their nominees. This posits that however something like “1917” does on nomination morning is how it was doing, regardless. The same for the candidacy of Leonardo DiCaprio in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” His Globe loss is irrelevant and his nomination or snub was already in the cards. Knowing the Academy, this very well could be how they handled the Globes on Sunday.

Another scenario is somewhat the opposite. Namely, that the Globes did influence some Academy Award voters, but not in a way we’ll be able to see. For example, maybe more voters did check off Taron Egerton in Best Actor for his “Rocketman” turn after the win, but he’d already secured enough for a nomination. The same goes for Quentin Tarantino in Best Original Screenplay. It’s certainly possible he’s benefitting from the HFPA giving him Best Screenplay and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” has fully moved past Noah Baumbach‘s “Marriage Story” script, but we just won’t know.

Finally, there’s the potential scenario that the Golden Globe results did actually lead to last-minute changes. This would mean that potentially someone like Egerton was on the cusp and actually did get in due to his Globe win. Honestly, this is almost impossible to know, since the above scenario is what makes more sense. The one category that perhaps you could consider for this situation is Best Animated Feature. Maybe “Missing Link” goes on to victory at the Oscars, fueled by the Globes? If this happens, the Golden Globe turn would figure to be where it began.

Academy Awards 2014 1

We shall see what happens on Tuesday morning, but we won’t fully know if the Golden Globes mattered at all. Certain nominations or snubs might suggest a Globe impact, but it’ll surely be speculation. No matter what, this quirky timing has at least presented another layer to Phase One of the season. If nothing else, it helps to make sure none of this is even a little bit boring!

Do you think the Golden Globes will have a tangible effect on the Academy Award nominations? Let us know in the comments below! 

What do you think?

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Written by Joey Magidson

When he’s not obsessing over new Oscar predictions on a weekly basis, Joey is seeing between 300 and 350 movies a year. He views the best in order to properly analyze the awards race/season each year, but he also watches the worst for reasons he mostly sums up as "so you all don't have to". In his spare time, you can usually find him complaining about the Jets or the Mets. Still, he lives and dies by film. Joey's a voting member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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Joey Magidson

Assume minimal impact, but look for clues

Ryan

Minimal impact is a good way to put it. Even if enough voters waited for the Globes, there’s no guarantee the show’s winners would influence their decisions and even less of a guarantee that there are enough of them to change anything.

Its hard to imagine that any of the Globes winners weren’t going to get in anyways, but if there was ever a chance that Egerton, Awkwafina, Missing Link, or the Rocketman Song weren’t going to make it, well… they feel pretty safe now.

Atlax

Yeah, I don’t think they affected the Oscars at all for the nominations. On long-term though it does give a boost to contenders for the win (i.e. OUATIH for BP maybe BOS, 1917 for director, maybe Picture). As you say Missing Link could be the most benefited from this, I really hope it gets traction for a win at the Oscars, supposing it is getting in, Laika deserves this for a full decade of great movies (though they should have won the Oscar with Kubo IMO).

Phill Milner

I’ll say maximum impact. Every single globe winner will be nominated on Monday! Bold Prediction.

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