Most years, one can somewhat safely dismiss the Golden Globes when it comes to wide-reaching Academy Award impact. This year, however, things are a bit more complicated than that. The Golden Globe Awards were held on Sunday evening, right in the midst of Oscar voting. That presents a wrinkle. Were members of the Academy watching with ballots not yet filled out while the Hollywood Foreign Press Association chimed in? Or, did voters make their selections prior to the HFPA? Maybe they ignored them completely? All are possibilities. Today, we’ll discuss them a little bit, in the direct aftermath of Academy voting having ended on Tuesday night.
There are basically three scenarios to consider when pondering this whole situation. One is far less likely than the other two, but all three are at least worth briefly pondering. Whenever the Academy makes its selections without Guild help, especially the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild, wild things can happen. Would it be that crazy to think that some voters turned to the Globes when figuring out their Oscar picks to end Phase One?
The first scenario is that the Golden Globes did not impact the impending Oscar nominations one bit. More likely, a voter might consider the winners when filling out their own winner list, as opposed to their nominees. This posits that however something like “1917” does on nomination morning is how it was doing, regardless. The same for the candidacy of Leonardo DiCaprio in “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” His Globe loss is irrelevant and his nomination or snub was already in the cards. Knowing the Academy, this very well could be how they handled the Globes on Sunday.
Another scenario is somewhat the opposite. Namely, that the Globes did influence some Academy Award voters, but not in a way we’ll be able to see. For example, maybe more voters did check off Taron Egerton in Best Actor for his “Rocketman” turn after the win, but he’d already secured enough for a nomination. The same goes for Quentin Tarantino in Best Original Screenplay. It’s certainly possible he’s benefitting from the HFPA giving him Best Screenplay and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” has fully moved past Noah Baumbach‘s “Marriage Story” script, but we just won’t know.
Finally, there’s the potential scenario that the Golden Globe results did actually lead to last-minute changes. This would mean that potentially someone like Egerton was on the cusp and actually did get in due to his Globe win. Honestly, this is almost impossible to know, since the above scenario is what makes more sense. The one category that perhaps you could consider for this situation is Best Animated Feature. Maybe “Missing Link” goes on to victory at the Oscars, fueled by the Globes? If this happens, the Golden Globe turn would figure to be where it began.
We shall see what happens on Tuesday morning, but we won’t fully know if the Golden Globes mattered at all. Certain nominations or snubs might suggest a Globe impact, but it’ll surely be speculation. No matter what, this quirky timing has at least presented another layer to Phase One of the season. If nothing else, it helps to make sure none of this is even a little bit boring!