Out of all the acting categories, Best Supporting Actress is most prone to having double bids. With “Jojo Rabbit,” both Thomasin McKenzie and Scarlett Johansson have the potential to continue that trend. However, there’s always the possibility where only one of them gets a nomination. In that case, which “Jojo Rabbit” actress could bunny-hop over the other?
AMPAS voters love putting their stamp of approval on rising talent, which works in McKenzie’s favor. She is capitalizing on the early promise shown in “Leave No Trace” last year, and her involvement in the Henry V biopic “The King” should be an added benefit. McKenzie’s star is rising fast and a nomination for her work as a Jewish girl hiding from Nazis would cement her arrival.
On the other hand, Scarlett Johansson is having quite a year herself. Johansson is also in the Oscar race with “Marriage Story” and ranks first on our current Lead Actress predictions. Starring in “Avengers: Endgame,” the highest-grossing movie of all time, certainly shouldn’t hurt. Plus, unlike newcomer McKenzie, Johansson has been a prominent Hollywood figure.
The only potential handicap for Johansson is her screen time. While she has a sympathetic role as the main character’s anti-Nazi mother, McKenzie has more screen time. Between the two actresses, McKenzie is a likelier bet since she’s in second place on our Supporting Actress predictions while Johansson ranks 12th.
There’s a clear choice between a rising star and familiar star power. Once key precursors start rolling in, though, it’s possible they opt for star power. Both the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild typically favor familiar faces which benefits Johansson. McKenzie may be out in front due to the breakthrough factor and having more screen time than her co-star. However, Johansson’s banner year and star wattage may give her a significant advantage.