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Circuit Breaker Episode 173: Final Oscar Predictions 2020: The Breaking of the Stats Part 2

oscars feb9

Screen Shot 2018 11 27 at 11.59.51 PMWelcome to the AwardsCircuit.com podcast “Circuit Breaker! The Awards, & TV Podcast,” part of the CIRCUIT BREAKER MEDIA NETWORK. “Circuit Breaker” is a weekly podcast show with host and site editor and owner Clayton Davis. With a team of panelists including Mark Johnson, Joey Magidson, Chris James, and Karen Peterson, along with other guests, we discuss movies, television and all the awards shows that need predicting. New episodes are released every Monday. Podcasts produced by Drew Griffith.

Find the show on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram at @Circuit_Pod, email us at podcast@awardscircuit.com and submit your comments and questions at the bottom of the episode.

On the agenda:

  • Final Oscar Predictions! Are we due for our first sweep year in over a decade? Is “1917” positioned to simply win it all? Is “Parasite” peaking at the right moment? All categories are given the analysis treatment
    • Best Picture – Two horse race between “1917” and “Parasite” or a possible up the middle pick of “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood?”
    • DirectingSam Mendes has won everything up until now. How can we justify a Bong Joon-ho win with only Critics Choice in the pocket?
    • Lead ActorJoaquin Phoenix has steamrolled thus far. Is there any hope for Adam Driver to leap in front?
    • Lead ActressRenée Zellweger has been the frontrunner since Telluride but could Scarlett Johansson‘s double nomination be a danger for her?
    • Supporting ActorBrad Pitt is the coolest guy of the season but it’s hard to gauge if there’s the floundering of his film is helping both Al Pacino and/or Joe Pesci. Is it a non-starter?
    • Supporting ActressLaura Dern has well-respected but Florence Pugh and Margot Robbie have gained some late surge love over the past few weeks. Is there room for an upset?
    • Original Screenplay – What once seemed tailor-made for Quentin Tarantino has now shifted towards Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han following WGA. Who edges who out in the end?
    • Adapted Screenplay – This race has gone to different films in this late phase and Taika Waititi and Greta Gerwig are both making their cases but not before Anthony McCarten attempts to pull his own “Gods and Monsters.”
    • Animated Feature – Netflix versus Pixar as “Klaus” and “Toy Story 4” are surging right about now, with Golden Globe winner “Missing Link” maneuvering well through the season.
    • Production Design – One of the hardest categories to predict as period and modern pieces collide with “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood,” “1917,” and “Parasite” look for an advantage.
    • Cinematography – Is it worth discussing which film is #2 to “1917” and Roger Deakins?
    • Costume Design – Jacqueline Durran versus Arianne Phillips and no one knows if old Academy or new Academy will prevail?
    • Film Editing – The hardest category to predict this season as we all seem to feel this can either line up with your predicted Best Picture winner or fall in line like a year when “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” won this category.
    • Makeup and Hairstyling – Too easy to pick “Bombshell” or is there something else brewing like “Joker?”
    • Sound Mixing – “1917” or “Ford v Ferrari?”
    • Sound Editing – Do you split the war and racecar movie?
    • Visual Effects – Mark’s Production Design stat lives on and he’s holding to it again this year with “1917” and “The Irishman.”
    • Original Score – How can you not predict Hildur? We have a solution for you but you’re not going to like it.
    • Original Song – Elton John and the rest?
    • Documentary Feature – Obama or For Sama?
    • International Feature – Why do you ask questions you already know the answer to?
    • Animated Short – This will win your Oscar pool for you.
    • Documentary Short – Or this one?
    • Live Action Short – Actually you probably could get all these wrong and still win.
  • Art Director’s Guild results where “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” prevailed. Can it edge out “1917” or “Parasite” in the end?
  • The Writers Guild of America handed out their awards to “Parasite” and “Jojo Rabbit.” Are those our Oscar winners or are Quentin Tarantino and Greta Gerwig still in the thick of it?
  • What will BAFTA confirm about the Oscars? Or does it make it more confusing?
  • ACCA all-time rankings and big winners.

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Written by Drew Griffith

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Joey Magidson

Enjoy!

disqus_xxwDaBtW3O

So much for the odds of double nominees winning at BAFTA. 5 of 6 double nominees who won were British. Laura Dern winning London Film Critics over Margot Robbie, Florence Pugh right before BAFTA should have been a tipoff.

Lucas Yslas

Skyfall tied with Zero Dark Thirty, not Life of Pi

Lucas Yslas

Skyfall tied with Zero Dark Thirty, not Life of Pi

Rodrigo

Master and Commander won the Oscar for Best Sound Editing in 2004. The Return of the King wasn’t nominated in that category. Interestingly, the only technical categories for which it received no nominations were Best Sound Editing, which The Two Towers won the year before, and Best Cinematography, which The Fellowship of the Ring won two years before.

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2020 Oscar Circuit: Best Sound Editing/Sound Mixing

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2020 Oscar Circuit: Best Animated Short