2015 Emmys: Will Win/Should Win (Sam Coffey)



Despite announcing the nominees in over 100 categories in mid-July, it feels like this Emmy season has FLOWN by.  Indeed, in the many weeks since the TV Academy announced its nominations, we’ve learned quite a bit about the Emmys–specifically, how different the 2015 Emmys could be from any Emmys of years past.

In 2015, the TV Academy instituted a semi-popular vote system for the categories.  Before this year, categories were determined by Blue Ribbon panels.  For example, a member of the Acting Branch would get placed on the panel for Best Drama Actor, Best Comedy Guest Actress, and Best Supporting Actor in a Movie/Miniseries.  In those systems, the episode that each actor submitted to those panels held great weight.  Indeed, does anyone think Bryan Cranston wins for the Pilot episode of Breaking Bad unless we force people to watch tapes?  Nah, Jon Hamm wins in a walk.  BUT NOW, the TV Academy has changed the rules…kind of.  They’ve open all branch categories to the entire BRANCH; i.e., all member of the acting branch can vote on all 18 acting/performance categories.  Do the math real quick and it’s pretty obvious that fewer people will be watching all submitted tapes this year.

So…what does this mean?  Truly no one knows, but we can read SOME tea leaves via the results from the Creative Arts Emmys’ acting races.  Four dramatic performances won the two drama and two comedy guest acting races.  For each winner, they were well-liked acting veterans, two of which had previously won Emmys.  Did any of them have a “strong tape”?  Well Bradley Whitfield had a suitable tape, but it was distinctly non-funny.  Likewise, Reg E. Cathy had a fine tape, seemingly going through the motions; however, it’s no real mystery how this fan favorite finally won a big prize.  And finally, Margo Martindale won an Emmy for appearing in one scene of the third season of a show the Emmys don’t much care for–it reeks of “oh she’s probably good” voting.

But who knows….predicted winners down below.  Clayton’s final picks will be up later today.

Best Drama Series
    •    Better Call Saul (AMC)
•    Downton Abbey (PBS)
•    Game of Thrones (HBO)
•    Homeland (Showtime)
•    House of Cards (Netflix)
•    Mad Men (AMC)
•    Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)

SHOULD WIN: Orange is the New Black
WILL WIN: Game of Thrones

Best Comedy Series
    •    Louie (FX)
•    Modern Family (ABC)
•    Parks and Recreation (NBC)
•    Silicon Valley (HBO)
•    Transparent (Amazon)
•    Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
•    Veep (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Best Actor in a Drama Series
    •   Kyle Chandler – Bloodline (Netflix)
•    Jeff Daniels – The Newsroom (HBO)
•    Jon Hamm  – Mad Men (AMC)
•    Bob Odenkirk  – Better Call Saul (AMC)
•    Liev Schreiber  – Ray Donovan (Showtime)
•    Kevin Spacey  – House of Cards (Netflix)

WILL WIN: Jon Hamm

Best Actress in a Drama Series
    •   Claire Danes – Homeland (Showtime)
•    Viola Davis – How to Get Away with Murder (ABC)
•    Taraji P. Henson – Empire (Fox)
•    Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black (BBC America)
•    Elisabeth Moss – Mad Men (AMC)
•    Robin Wright – House of Cards ( (Netflix)

SHOULD WIN: Elisabeth Moss
WILL WIN: Viola Davis

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
    •   Anthony Anderson – Black-ish (ABC)
•    Don Cheadle – House of Lies (Showtime)
•    Louis C.K. – Louie (FX)
•    Will Forte – The Last Man on Earth (Fox)
•    Matt LeBlanc – Episodes (Showtime)
•    William H. Macy – Shameless (Showtime)
•    Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent (Amazon)

SHOULD WIN: Jeffrey Tambor
WILL WIN: Jeffrey Tambor

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
    •   Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
•    Lisa Kudrow – The Comeback (HBO)
•    Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep (HBO)
•    Amy Poehler -Parks and Recreation (NBC)
•    Amy Schumer – Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
•    Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie (Netflix)

SHOULD WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
WILL WIN: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
    •   Jonathan Banks – Better Call Saul (AMC)
•    Jim Carter – Downton Abbey (PBS)
•    Alan Cumming – The Good Wife (CBS)
•    Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones (HBO)
•    Michael Kelly – House of Cards (Netflix)
•    Ben Mendelsohn – Bloodline (Netflix)

SHOULD WIN: Jim Carter
WILL WIN: Jonathan Banks

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
    •   Uzo Aduba – Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)
•    Christine Baranski – The Good Wife (CBS)
•    Emilia Clarke – Game of Thrones (HBO)
•    Joanne Froggatt – Downton Abbey (PBS)
•    Lena Headey – Game of Thrones (HBO)
•    Christina Hendricks – Mad Men (AMC)

SHOULD HAVE WON BY NOW: Joanne Froggatt  
ALSO SHOULD HAVE WON BY NOW: Christina Hendricks
WILL WIN: Lena Headey

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
    •   Andre Braugher – Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox)
•    Tituss Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
•    Ty Burrell – Modern Family (ABC)
•    Adam Driver – Girls (HBO)
•    Tony Hale – Veep (HBO)
•    Keegan-Michael Key – Key & Peele (Comedy Central)

SHOULD WIN: Tituss Burgess
WILL WIN: Tituss Burgess

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
    •   Mayim Bialik – The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
•    Julie Bowen – Modern Family (ABC)
•    Anna Chlumsky – Veep (HBO)
•    Gaby Hoffmann – Transparent (Amazon)
•    Allison Janney – Mom (CBS)
•    Jane Krakowski – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
•    Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live  (NBC)
•    Niecy Nash – Getting On (HBO)

SHOULD WIN: Jane Krakowski
WILL WIN: Anna Chlumsky (or Allison Janney)

Other Categories:
Drama DirectingGame of Thrones – “Mothers Mercy”
Drama WritingMad Men – “Person to Person”
Comedy DirectingVeep – “Testimony”
Comedy WritingTransparent – “Pilot”
Limited Series – Oliver Kitteridge
Lead Actor in a  Movie or Limited Series – Richard Jenkins – Olive Kitteridge
Lead Actress in a Movie or Limited Series – Queen Latifah – Bessie
Supporting Actor in a Movie or Limited Series – Bill Murray – Olive Kitteridge
Supporting Actress in a Movie or Limited Series – Mo’Nique – Bessie
Directing for Movie or Limited Series – Olive Kitteridge
Writing for Movie or Limited Series – Olive Kitteridge
Reality Competition Series – The Amazing Race
Variety Talk Series – Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Variety Sketch Series – Inside Amy Schumer