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Golden Globe Predictions 2020: Who Will Win On Sunday?

Golden Globe Awards 1

The Golden Globes are set to be handed out this Sunday night, in the middle of Oscar voting. There are a few ways it can all go and the official predictions and commentary are down below.

BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA):
The Irishman” (Netflix)

irishman movie cinematographyThe drama category at the Globes tends to lean towards the “on-paper” frontrunner, rather than the “spoiler” or “near threat” in the race. Past winners like “Atonement” and “Boyhood” are examples of this. In a lineup that includes a war film, divorce drama, villain origin story, and religious debate, the epic crime drama from Martin Scorsese should be able to reign supreme but “1917” could be a major spoiler.

BEST MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” (Sony Pictures)

onceuponatime pitt qualleyThere’s a large amount of quality in the Comedy/Musical races, more so than we’ve typically seen in past races that included duds like “The Tourist.” This is a tad tighter than what many think, even with a high probability that Quentin Tarantino’s Hollywood period piece is one of the frontrunners to win it all at the Dolby Theatre in February. Much like we saw in 2014 where “Birdman or (the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” was bested in this category by “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” despite its eventual Oscar triumph, we’re looking at “Jojo Rabbit” for a last-minute upset, cementing its place in the awards race. Can we all just dream that the presenter would read aloud “Knives Out” or “Dolemite Is My Name?” What a treat it would be, eh?

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA):
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory” (Sony Pictures Classics)

antonio banderas pain and gloryThere aren’t any “bad choices” in this category, and the Best Actor race has been utterly competitive, mirroring the 2004 race when there was an embarrassment of riches, resulting in the monumental snub of Paul Giamatti in “Sideways.” Anticipating something more in the lines of 1998 where Jim Carrey won the Globe for “The Truman Show” and missed out on SAG, and eventually, Oscar. Banderas is popular with the group and may just edge out big-time contenders Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”) and Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”). The latter will be the alternate.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” (Sony Pictures)

leonardodicaprio onceuponatimeDoes anyone have a five-sided coin that they’ve created for us to flip? That’s how it feels in this category where any of these five individuals can emerge on the stage with a gold statue. Taron Egerton likely captures the “spirit” of this category as he impressed all with his vocal chops as Elton John but Eddie Murphy put forth one of his strongest performances yet in Craig Brewer’s comedy. While having pockets of support, we aren’t expecting Daniel Craig or Roman Griffith Davis to have enough to push them over, which leaves three-time Golden Globe winner Leonardo DiCaprio (previous winner for “The Aviator,” “The Wolf of Wall Street,” and “The Revenant”) to add one more to his mantle, and perhaps start a formidable march towards his second Oscar? Maybe. Looking at Edgerton to spoil.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA):
Renée Zellweger, “Judy” (Roadside Attractions)

judy1If we all want to pretend to have a discussion about this then I’ll play. Scarlett Johansson is the alternate pick and is the only one with a corresponding Best Picture nomination. Previous winners Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”) and Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”) are favorites of the group while Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”) is a hot new talent they’re excited to welcome to the club. But in the end, game over…it’s Zellweger. By the way, no Lupita Nyong’o? Shame on HFPA.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
Awkwafina, “The Farewell” (A24)

awkwafinaIf there’s a race that is being closely watched this year, it’s this one. The winner of Best Actress (Comedy or Musical) typically translates to an Oscar nomination with just three exceptions in the last 20 years (Renée Zellweger for “Nurse Betty,” Sally Hawkins for “Happy-Go-Lucky,” and Amy Adams for “Big Eyes”). Awkawfina is the only actress who seems to be right on the cusp of a nomination, and a win, partnered with a powerful speech may push her over the edge. The question will be at whose expense? We’re also watching Beanie Feldstein or the alternate pick Ana de Armas to get some love.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE:
Bong Joon-ho, “Parasite” (NEON)

Bong Joon HoThe Hollywood Foreign Press loves its international directors, especially when they can’t reward them in their top categories. Julian Schnabel (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”) and Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”) were both able to jump some big contenders in their respective years, with the latter winning the Academy Award in the end. Bong has a strong following and he might be able to just edge out Martin Scorsese, who is the alternate in the race.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE:
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” (Sony Pictures)

Brad Pitt Once Upon A Time In HollywoodIs it time to reward the acting career of Brad Pitt, who seems to be an audience favorite for his work in Quentin Tarantino’s beloved picture or is the momentum, despite not campaigning, for Joe Pesci going to spoil the party? Flip a coin. I chose heads.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE:
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers” (STX Films)

jenniferlopez hustlersWhile we may feel very confident that Laura Dern is winning the Academy Award, this is where a small shakeup can occur. In 2004, we all felt confident that Cate Blanchett was winning for playing Katharine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s “The Aviator.” When it came to the HFPA, they felt comfortable looking elsewhere and that was Natalie Portman’s work as a stripper in “Closer.” Enter our modern-day stripper and she was a hot one to reward and we’re rolling the dice that Jennifer Lopez (“Hustlers”) just gets by Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”) in this race. Let me be clear, I don’t think this changes anything Oscar wise though (at least at this time of writing). This may all be a moot point and just proves it’s Dern’s year no matter what.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE:
Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story” (Netflix)

Marriage StoryThis is the single most competitive race of the evening where any of the films can make their stamp on the race, in their respective categories. Tarantino has won this award twice but he feels like he’s on the outside looking in at the moment while “The Two Popes” would make a soaring comeback with a surprise win. Although, a win for Anthony McCarten has the ability to mirror something like “Steve Jobs,” which won this category but failed to make the Oscar list. Look for Noah Baumbach to start his march to an Original Screenplay wins if he beats out “Parasite” and “The Irishman.” In the case of the latter, a win for Zaillian would leave the original race as open as ever, leaving BAFTA to provide answers.

BEST MOTION PICTURE (ANIMATED):
Frozen II” (Pixar)

frozen 2 trailerIn a less-than passionate year for animation, “Frozen II” may default its way to a win, especially since “I Lost My Body” is not present for the prize. “Toy Story 4” may be able to squeak by but either way, Disney wins.

BEST MOTION PICTURE (FOREIGN LANGUAGE):
Parasite” (NEON) from South Korea

parasite imageI know I played the “alternate” game earlier but this isn’t really worth all the text. “Parasite” wins…no question. Still, want an alternative? “Portrait of a Lady on Fire.” There. Done.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE:
Thomas Newman, “1917” (Universal Pictures)

1917 reviewThe chords of “Joker” and “Marriage Story” are impressive and do actually pose a threat in this category but Thomas Newman is so overdue, it hurts, and it actually is the single best work of his career. We don’t often get this pairing too often. We expect HFPA to take advantage of it.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE:
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from “Rocketman” (Paramount Pictures)

Taron Egerton RocketmanElton John is a beloved musician and while Disney’s power with “Into the Unknown” or “Spirit” could convince quite a few voters, we expect “Rocketman” to walk away with something on the night, and this is easy to do. With this said, the alternative is likely “Beautiful Ghosts,” matched with the star power of Taylor Swift, and the recent snub from the Oscar bakeoff list that was released, she may have got some sympathy votes.

TELEVISION CATEGORIES

The Crown Colman scaled
The Crown

BEST TELEVISION SERIES (DRAMA):
The Crown” (Netflix)

ALTERNATE: “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

BEST TELEVISION SERIES (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):
Fleabag” (Prime Video)

ALTERNATE: “Barry” (HBO)

BEST LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE:
Chernobyl” (HBO)

ALTERNATE: “Unbelievable” (Netflix)

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Tobias Menzies, “The Crown” (Netflix)

ALTERNATE: Billy Porter, “Pose” (FX)

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Olivia Colman, “The Crown” (Netflix)

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Paul Rudd, “Living With Yourself” (Netflix)

ALTERNATE: Bill Hader, “Barry” (HBO)

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag” (Prime)

ALTERNATE: Kirsten Dunst, “On Becoming A God In Central Florida” (Showtime)

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE:
Jared Harris, “Chernobyl” (HBO)

ALTERNATE: Sam Rockwell, “Fosse/Verdon” (FX)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE:
Michelle Williams, “Fosse/Verdon” (FX)

ALTERNATE: Helen Mirren, “Catherine the Great” (HBO)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES, OR TV MOVIE:
Andrew Scott, “Fleabag” (Prime)

ALTERNATE: Stellan Skarsgård, “Chernobyl”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A SERIES, LIMITED SERIES, OR TV MOVIE:
Meryl Streep, “Big Little Lies” (HBO)

ALTERNATE: Helena Bonham Carter, “The Crown” (Netflix)

The Golden Globes air Sunday, Jan. 5 at 8:00 pm est on NBC and is hosted by Ricky Gervais.

What are your predictions for the GOLDEN GLOBES? Share them in the comments below!

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Written by Clayton Davis

Clayton Davis is the esteemed Editor and Owner of AwardsCircuit.com. Born in Bronx, NY to a Puerto Rican mother and Black father, he’s been criticizing film and television for over a decade. Clayton is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to the awards season, the Critics Choice Awards. He also founded the Latino Entertainment Journalists Association, the first Latino-based critics’ organization in the United States. He’s also an active member of the African-American Film Critics Association, New York Film Critics Online, International Press Academy, Black Reel Awards, and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association. Clayton has been quoted and appeared in various outlets that include The New York Times, CNN.com, Variety, Deadline, Los Angeles Times, FOX 5, Bloomberg Television, AOL, Huffington Post, Bloomberg Radio, The Wrap, Slash Film, and the Hollywood Reporter.

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Michael Eduard Gschwandtner

Drama: Joker
Comedy: OUATIH
Direction: Joon-ho for Parasite
Screenplay: Baumbach for Marriage Story
Score: 1917
Song: Love Me Again from Rocketman
International: Parasite
Animated: Toy Story 4
Lead Actor Drama: Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Lead Actress Drama: Zellweger for Judy
Lead Actor Comedy: Egerton for Rocketman
Lead Actress Comedy: Awkwafina for The Farewell
Supporting Actor: Pitt for OUATIH
Supporting Actress: Dern for Marriage Story

Júlio Returns

Drama: Joker
Comedy: OUATIH (100% sure)
Direction: Joon-ho
Screenplay: Tarantino OUATIH
Score: 1917
Song: Love Me Again
International: Parasite (100% sure)
Animated: Toy Story 4 (100% sure)
Lead Actor Drama: Joaquin Phoenix (100% sure)
Lead Actress Drama: Renée Zellweger (100% sure)
Lead Actor Comedy: Egerton
Lead Actress Comedy: Awkwafina (100% sure)
Supporting Actor: Pitt (100% sure)
Supporting Actress: Lopez

Kellen

Best Picture Drama: the Irishman Best Picture Musical/Comedy: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Best Director: Bong Joon-Ho Best Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Best Actor Drama: Adam Driver (but it would make way too much sense for the globes to go with Phoenix so I’m keeping a close eye on that) Best Actress Drama: Renée Zellweger Best Actor Musical/Comedy: Leonardo DiCaprio Best Actress Musical/Comedy: Awkwafina Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern Best Foreign Language Film: Parasite Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 4 Best Original Score: 1917 Best Original Song: “I’m Gonna Love… Read more »

michaeldal65

Sorry to be the grinch but I just cannot believe anyone could give Lopez an award for her “performance” in that very silly film.

Ryan

I initially dismissed Banderas, but there’s definitely an argument to be made that he is the biggest ‘movie star’ in that lineup that voters would love to see on that stage, so I now have him as my alternate behind Driver.

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