Oscar Circuit: “It’s the Final Countdown!” – FINAL Oscar Predictions Updated

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It’s done.  With the Giants game in the background (GO GIANTS!!), I’ve completed my Final Oscar Predictions.  Some notable things before I’m crucified.

I’ve stuck with seven Best Picture nominees.  A big part of me wanted to exclude David Fincher’s “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” from the shortlist but if the film would miss a Best Picture nomination, it would be unprecedented.  No film has been cited by nearly all the guilds and miss out in the end.  It did miss the Golden Globe and SAG nod so it’s very possible to miss.  I still believe “War Horse” will make it.  Can you imagine an older member of the Academy not checking off his name?  I can’t.  I’m foreseeing a very low show for Bennett Miller’s “Moneyball,” although I did stick with Jonah Hill but I’m crossing my fingers for him.  Even though I respect Scott Feinberg, I still don’t see the “Drive” love coming through to get it nominated.  It currently sits at #9 on the predictions but I couldn’t choose the film to be nominated with only one other nomination for Albert Brooks.  I think it would need Editing and Cinematography and I don’t see either happening.

In Lead Actor, George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, and Brad Pitt are there as expected.  I’ve dropped Leonardo DiCaprio (which I’m perfectly ready to hear his name anyway) for Michael Fassbender (Shame) and Michael Shannon (Take Shelter).  It’s a hard sell but he’s surprised before and critics respected the film and his work.  I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Jeff Nichols’ name in the Original Screenplay category.  You can’t count out Ryan Gosling for “Drive” or “The Ides of March.”  And the SAG hopeful Demian Bichir holds on at #7.  Anything else outside of those names would be a true surprise.  In Lead Actress, I matched 5 for 5 with SAG and a HUGE part of me wanted to drop Tilda Swinton in favor of either Rooney Mara or Kirsten Dunst.  Not sure if the “Tattoo” surge came early enough to push Mara through and not sure if enough voters actually popped in “Melancholia.”  You can watch for either of those names.  Some say Glenn Close is vulnerable and perhaps you’re right.  I still see her making it through.

In Supporting Actor, I’ve picked up Jonah Hill again as stated before but I do have Viggo Mortensen at #6 just because of the essence of the role and the fact that he’s Viggo.  Theoretically any of the names 1 through 15 could be named and I wouldn’t be surprised.  Corey Stoll, Ezra Miller, Ben Kingsley, can you imagine it?  I can.  You know what else I could imagine?  Albert Brooks NOT being called for “Drive.”  How much would that suck?  The SAG snub could have been very telling on that notion.  In Supporting Actress, watch out for a Jessica Chastain switch for “The Tree of Life” or “Take Shelter.”  I’m still holding on to Janet McTeer who’s showing with the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild meant a whole lot I presume.    I’m rolling the dice on Melissa McCarthy making it and Shailene Woodley not, but I fully expect it to be the other way around.  I’m also keeping an eye out for Carey Mulligan for “Shame” or “Drive.”  The BAFTA could have meant something.

Listed below are number of nominations I expect for the predicted Best Picture nominees along with some other notable things.

  • Michel Hazanavicius’ “The Artist” is predicted to be nominated for 11 Academy Awards.
  • Martin Scorsese’s “Hugo” is also predicted to be nominated for 11 Academy Awards.
  • Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants” is predicted to be nominated for 4 Academy Awards.
  • Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris” is predicted to only be nominated for 3 Academy Awards.
  • Tate Taylor’s “The Help” is predicted to be nominated for 7 Academy Awards.
  • Steven Spielberg’s “War Horse” is predicted to be nominated for 6 Academy Awards.
  • David Fincher’s “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” is predicted to be nominated for 5 Academy Awards.
  • Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life” is predicted to be nominated for 3 Academy Awards including Best Director.
  • Nicolas Winding Refn’s “Drive” is predicted to be nominated only for 1 Academy Award. :(
  • David Yates’ “Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows Part 2” is predicted to be nominated for 3 Academy Awards.
  • Tomas Alfredson’s “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” is predicted to be nominated for 3 Academy Awards including Adapted Screenplay.
  • Bennett Miller’s “Moneyball” is predicted to be nominated for 3 Academy Awards including Lead and Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

What I Chickened Out Of

  • Choosing Kirsten Dunst for “Melancholia” over Tilda Swinton for “We Need to Talk About Kevin.”
  • Predicting “Drive” and “The Tree of Life” to be nominated for Best Picture.
  • Choosing “War Horse” for Cinematography over “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.”
  • Choosing “The Adventures of Tintin” to be nominated for Animated Feature.
  • Choosing Demian Bichir for “A Better Life” in favor of Michael Shannon for “Take Shelter.”
  • A “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” shut out.

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