Just as important as the Oscar Predictions of the Awards Circuit is the Oscar Tracker which I’ve neglected as of late. I’ve made appropriate changes and additions as I see fit. Official and Staff Oscar Predictions will be updated early this week in case you’re wondering. I’ve also taken the liberty of updating the Golden Globe Predictions page as well.
Explanation of some of the additions or removals which you can see on the page:
- Removal of “The Hunger Games”
March was a long time ago. The Hunger Games had a great box office and probably has the support of a lot of fanboys and fans of the book series. With the openings of Joss Whedon’s The Avengers, Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight Rises, and the eventual release of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, any supporters for a blockbuster will have their votes split. Picture and Director were a longshot anyway, even back in March. Jennifer Lawrence holds on because the lack of quality contenders in the category.
- The Avengers and Superhero fans Everywhere
More fanboy hopefuls. The film is the highest-grossing picture of the year and received some of the best reviews of the year. I still think its highly unlikely and with the next round of predictions, it’s still pretty low on the totem pole.
I’ve added Joss Whedon to the Directing category but have held reservations in Adapted Screenplay (and Original Screenplay for “The Cabin in the Woods”).
- Is There “Hope” for “Springs?”
While many are saying, “it’s not going to happen,” Streep has been nominated for works that have been less then well-received. Think Music of the Heart, One True Thing, and The Iron Lady. She’s probably solid for a Golden Globe nomination along with Tommy Lee Jones who surprisingly has received standout notices. Don’t be surprised if you see Streep on the Oscar lineup.
- Is there “Magic” for McConaughey’s Oscar Campaign?
Read the full article here for the explanatation of Matthew McConaughey’s chances. The addition of the film under Original Screenplay is what we need to discuss. The film has made a butt-load of money, received good reviews, and the type of film that can get noticed in Screenplay. A Writers Guild mention would really catapult things forward. Staff Writer Terence Johnson’s concern is whether or not Academy members will pop in a male-stripper movie starring Channing Tatum. I tend to agree.
- Jessica Chastain and the Seven Films
First of all, can I just say how much I am growing to absolutely love Jessica Chastain. Last year, she was nominated for The Help, which was very deserved and besides Viola Davis, is the best performance in the film. She’s the best part of the dreadful Coriolanus. She balanced an uneven film with Helen Mirren in The Debt. She worked the supportive/suffering wife role to a “T” in Jeff Nichols’ Take Shelter. And finally she was the beauty and the wonder of Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life. This year, Chastain has already had a voice-over work in Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted, a cute sprinkle on her resume. She is due later this month’s in John Hillcoat’s Lawless, a film that has received mixed reception but all seem to be championing her work. Best-in-show reviews could translate into something for her once again Oscar-wise. She makes her appearance on the Tracker.
She also has two films, that may or may not come out later this year. The long-awaited poetic look at C.K. Williams’ life Tar, starring James Franco, Henry Hopper, and Mila Kunis has been awaiting a release date. With eleven directors on board, I’m sure there must be some disagreements going on. Not looking like an Oscar contender at all, Andres Muschietti’s Mama, a seeming horror genre film about a married couple that raise their young nieces after they’re left in the forest for five years, looks like popcorn-flare at its worst. Don’t forget about what looks to be one of the leading female roles in Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty.
- Small Films, Small Screenplays
- Is it time for Pixar to be de-throned?
With the unenthusiastic yet positive reviews for Pixar’s Brave from early Summer, a slot has been opened for a new company to have its time to shine. ParaNorman is looking like a solid bet and was considered a dark horse for months. Let’s not forget about the early release of The Secret World of Arrietty from Disney that could sneak its way back up to the top. Based on history, Pixar has received a screenplay nomination to accompany its Animated Feature. Looks like this year, it’ll be sitting this one out.
- The Bad Movies with Special Effects
When the summer brings its blockbusters to the table, we usually are aware that they tend not to be the most thought-provoking screenplays or authentic character creations. Peter Berg’s Battleship, based on the Hasbro board game received the worst reviews of the year. Does that mean a Sound or Visual Effects mention can’t break in? Surely not. Remember I, Robot (2004) and War of the Worlds (2005)? Both with Oscar nominations.
Even though it received better reviews, Ridley Scott’s Prometheus didn’t get the roaring induction into our 2012 summer season like it wanted. Michael Fassbender and its sleek look and sound were the the big mentions.
The Bourne Legacy didn’t go the way it wanted in terms of rebooting the franchise and introducing Jeremy Renner to action films. With the Oscar track record of its former film, The Bourne Ultimatum, the Academy may feel inclined to nominate something familiar.
- “Sing, Sing a Song…Make it Simple…Make it Strong”
The Original Song category is impossible to predict. First of all, the voting process is preposterous and we can never tell what films will have songs attached to them or if they’re deemed eligible.
The Documentary Feature hopeful, Paul Williams Still Alive unleashes one of the most tender songs of the year thus far, “Still Alive” written by Oscar winner Paul Williams. It would be a great comeback story that the branch could easily get behind.
Though the film was obliterated by critics this past weekend, Sparkle with Jordin Sparks and Whitney Houston has the R. Kelly written song “One Wing” that could translate into some attention.
- Documentaries fight too
It’s hard to keep a pulse on the outcome of the Documentary Feature race. Films like The Invisible War, Jiro Dreams of Sushi, and Queen of Versailles have already been declared masterpieces in filmmaking. With the branch having complete control and having a bakeoff of contenders, it doesn’t matter what the frontrunner looks to be, they’ll nominated what they want.
- Best Exotic Girls with Some Compliance Too!
- The Globes Love the Stars
Keira Knightley and Anna Karenina looks set to be not only a Globes favorite but a chance for Joe Wright to get rlong overdue recognition. If the Globes go for the film and Knightley, there’s no reason why Jude Law couldn’t find his way in as well. I’ve also given up on Julianne Moore and The English Teacher until further notice. I just want her to have an Oscar. :(