An annual tradition for all of us here at The Awards Circuit, I once again humbly present to you my picks for who/what Will Win as well as who/what Should Win at the Oscars. Before we get started though, a few quick thoughts on this year’s incarnation of the series. This is easily the most wide open Best Picture race in some time, so I’ve really never been less confident in my predictions than I am currently, especially in that big category. I was literally up all night second guessing myself, which has happened in the past, but never to this extent. There are so many possibilities that ran through my mind before I committed, but below you can see what I finally came up with. We’re going to find out in a few days who and what actually wins, but for now, here’s my yearly contribution to our Will Win/Should Win series!
Oh boy. In my whole time following the Academy Awards, never has there been this close a race for the top prize. 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity have similar chances of winning (yes, all three). That obviously leaves Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, and The Wolf of Wall Street out in the cold, as it’s a three horse race. American Hustle has fallen slightly behind, and I’d argue that Gravity is in the lead now too, though you can’t deny that 12 Years a Slave just “feels” like the more likely winner. I’ll probably regret this, but right this second I’m sticking with Gravity for the rather historic victory.
Will Win- Gravity
Should Win- Her
Could Win- 12 Years a Slave
Should Have Been Nominated- Inside Llewyn Davis, The Place Beyond the Pines, and The Spectacular Now
Part of my Best Picture aggravation is due to how wrapped up this category is and how loathe I am to predict a Picture/Director split. I mentioned that here in my Oscar Circuit article for this category, but the wise play is just to match up these two fields. In that case, that means that Alfonso Cuaron holds off Steve McQueen and David O. Russell for the statue. Don’t even think about Alexander Payne or Martin Scorsese here. Cuaron’s absolutely dominated the precursors, so he could potentially win even with a split, but I can’t bring myself to predict one, so he also benefits from my Picture pick as well. McQueen is the prime competition, but he’s likely coming up short.
Will Win- Alfonso Cuaron
Should Win- Martin Scorsese
Could Win- Steve McQueen
Should Have Been Nominated- Derek Cianfrance, Spike Jonze, and James Ponsoldt