Oscars 2014 Will Win/Should Win Selections (Sam Coffey)

Contributing writer Sam Coffey predicts the Oscars


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Clayton has given me the honor of being the first Awards Circuit writer out of the gate to cement my Academy Award predictions.  All the guilds and groups have weighed in,  minus the Costume Designers Guild.  All the tea has been drank, and all that remains are the leaves for us to read.  Here goes nothing:

What do you think?

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Written by Sam Coffey

Attorney-at-law, Oscaroligist, coffee lover, Fantasy Football silver medalist, soccer fan (Orlando City SC), Geoffrey Rush enthusiast, and Time's 2006 Person of the Year.

Sam joined The Awards Circuit in January 2014, predicting all award shows with 100% accuracy ever since. A.K.A. "the stat guy."


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you better let Mark see your should of been nominated in supporting actor


”SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Spectacular Now, Short Term 12, Frances Ha, Saving Mr. Banks, Much Ado About Nothing, and Frozen” Uh, you do realize there’s only ten spots right? Short Term 12 is the only one you could even make a case for.

Phillip Milner

Stopped reading after the first slide…

Jamie Teller

I liked the support for Spring Breakers. Glad to see someone else thinks that movie is actually good (and not “trashy fun” good).

Peter Templeman

I’m still not convinced that Gravity will win best picture. I think 12 Years A Slave is too important of a film not to win. It has basically won nearly all the top prizes. I know people are looking at the statistics and writing it off solely for that but my money is still on 12 Years a Slave to get the big prize. I don’t think Jennifer Lawrence will win either. Would they really reward her with a second Oscar so soon? It is a very award friendly performance and I think she is great in it but back… Read more »


Calling John Ridley’s magnificent script “serviceable” is kind of outrageous, and it’s evident that your immense love for Gravity has influenced your picks. So i guess if we combine those two factors, yes you are crazy :)

Mark Johnson

Well done, Sam.

Denexxel Domingo

I completely agree that DGA is the most powerful predictor of BP. You mentioned that Gravity has the edge because of its PGA and DGA win and I’m curious to see if you’ve thought about the interaction between the two (PGA * DGA) in a logistic reg. Great research!


This makes up for the article a few weeks ago where Joseph Braverman of Awards Circuit claimed that Amy Adams was going to win Best Actress over Cate Blanchett because she has been nominated 5 times and has yet to win. His points were feeble at best.
The fact is no Best Actress who has won NYFC, LAFC, NSFC, most of the regional critics awards, BFCA, Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA went on to lose the Oscar.
Braverman need to stay covering American Idol, not the Academy Awards.

Ryman Lloyd

EXCELLENT predictions, Sam. You are easily becoming one of my top favorite writers for this site. You have great taste in movies man, but of course those are all your opinions.



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