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Oscars: Predicting the Narrative with Golden Globes and SAG Guesses

benicio sicario

The Hollywood Foreign Press Academy is an eclectic bunch.  As we constantly speculate about the Oscar conversation, the Golden Globes have become equally as important in not just predicting nominees/winners, but giving artists a platform to kick-start their road to the podium.  It’s important to gauge the temperature about what they could cite for the upcoming show.  Equally, if not slightly more important is the Screen Actors Guild awards, a much larger group that gives us an accurate idea about where the actor’s passion lies in the industry for the Oscars.  As well as an Oscar Predictions update, I’ve taken the first stab at predicting both of those award shows, which when placed next to each other, tell a narrative for the upcoming awards season.

GOLDEN GLOBES PREDICTIONS

steve jobs fassbender rogen françois duhamel universalBEST PICTURE – DRAMA

  1. Steve Jobs” (Universal Pictures)
  2. Spotlight” (Open Road Films)
  3. The Revenant” (20th Century Fox)
  4. The Hateful Eight” (The Weinstein Company)
  5. Brooklyn” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

ALTERNATE: “Bridge of Spies” (DreamWorks/Walt Disney)

the_big_short-620x302BEST PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  1. The Martian” (20th Century Fox)
  2. The Big Short” (Paramount Pictures)
  3. Trumbo” (Bleecker Street)
  4. Love & Mercy” (Roadside Attractions)
  5. Trainwreck” (Universal Pictures)

ALTERNATE: “Burnt” (The Weinstein Company)

blackmassBEST ACTOR – DRAMA

  1. Johnny Depp – “Black Mass
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio – “The Revenant”
  3. Michael Fassbender – “Steve Jobs
  4. Eddie Redmayne – “The Danish Girl
  5. Michael Caine – “Youth”

ALTERNATE: Jake Gyllenhaal – “Southpaw

martianBEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  1. Matt Damon – “The Martian
  2. Bryan Cranston – “Trumbo”
  3. Tom Hiddleston – “I Saw the Light
  4. Paul Dano – “Love & Mercy
  5. Bradley Cooper – “Burnt”

ALTERNATE: Joaquin Phoenix – “Irrational Man

brie-larson-escapes-from-confined-space-in-roomBEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

  1. Brie Larson – “Room
  2. Jennifer Lawrence – “Joy”
  3. Cate Blanchett – “Carol
  4. Cate Blanchett – “Truth
  5. Saoirse Ronan – “Brooklyn

ALTERNATE: Carey Mulligan – “Suffragette

grandma_612x380_0BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  1. Lily Tomlin – “Grandma
  2. Amy Schumer – “Trainwreck
  3. Melissa McCarthy – “Spy
  4. Maggie Smith – “The Lady in the Van”
  5. Meryl Streep – “Ricki and the Flash

ALTERNATE: Sandra Bullock – “Our Brand is Crisis”

Bridge-of-Spies-Mark-RylanceBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Mark Rylance – “Bridge of Spies
  2. Idris Elba – “Beasts of No Nation
  3. Benicio del Toro – “Sicario
  4. Tom Hardy – “The Revenant”
  5. Jason Mitchell – “Straight Outta Compton

ALTERNATE: Harvey Keitel – “Youth”

Jennifer-Jason-Leigh’s-performance-is-the-most-surprisingBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Jennifer Jason Leigh – “The Hateful Eight”
  2. Alicia Vikander – “The Danish Girl
  3. Rooney Mara – “Carol
  4. Kate Winslet – “Steve Jobs
  5. Jane Fonda – “Youth”

ALTERNATE: Kristen Stewart – “Clouds of Sils Maria

revenant2BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

  1. Danny Boyle – “Steve Jobs”
  2. Tom McCarthy – “Spotlight”
  3. Quentin Tarantino – “The Hateful Eight”
  4. Alejandro G. Inarritu – “The Revenant”
  5. Ridley Scott – “The Martian”

ALTERNATE: David O. Russell – “Joy”

spotlight_openroadBEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

  1. Spotlight” – Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
  2. Steve Jobs” – Aaron Sorkin
  3. The Hateful Eight” – Quentin Tarantino
  4. Joy” – David O. Russell, Annie Mumolo
  5. Brooklyn” – Nick Hornby

ALTERNATE: “Room” – Emma Donaghue

Inside-Out-2015-Disney-MovieBEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  1. Inside Out” (Pixar)
  2. The Good Dinosaur” (Pixar)
  3. Anomalisa” (Paramount Pictures)
  4. Shaun the Sheep” (Aardman)
  5. Home” (20th Century Fox)

ALTERNATE: “The Peanuts Movie” (20th Century Fox)

sicario_imageBEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  1. Bridge of Spies” – Thomas Newman
  2. Steve Jobs” – Daniel Pemberton
  3. Sicario” – Johann Johansson
  4. Southpaw” – James Horner
  5. The Walk” – Alan Silvestri

ALTERNATE: “Inside Out” – Michael Giacchino

spectre-posterBEST ORIGINAL SONG

  1. Furious 7” – “See You Again”
  2. Spectre” – “Writing On the Wall”
  3. Fifty Shades of Grey” – “Earned It”
  4. Southpaw” – “Phenomenal”
  5. Pitch Perfect 2” – “Flashlight”

ALTERNATE: “Love & Mercy” – “One Kind of Love”

sonofsaul_imageBEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  1. Son of Saul” – HUNGARY
  2. Labyrinth of Lies” – GERMANY
  3. The Assassin” – TAIWAN
  4. Aferim” – ROMANIA
  5. Mustang” – FRANCE

ALTERNATE: “The Second Mother” (BRAZIL)

____________________________________________________________________

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD PREDICTIONS

joy_posterBEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST ENSEMBLE

  1. Spotlight” (Open Road) –
    Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Stanley Tucci, Liev Schreiber, John Slattery, Billy Crudup, Brian d’Arcy James
  2. Steve Jobs” (Universal Pictures) –
    Michael Fassbender, Kate Winslet, Seth Rogen, Jeff Daniels, Michael Stuhlbarg, Katherine Waterston, Sarah Snook, John Ortiz, Adam Shapiro
  3. The Hateful Eight” (The Weinstein Company) –
    Kurt Russell, Samuel L. Jackson, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Bruce Dern, Tim Roth, Demian Bichir, Michael Madsen, Channing Tatum, Walter Goggins
  4. Room” (A24 Films) –
    Brie Larson, Joan Allen, Jacob Tremblay, William H. Macy
  5. Joy” (20th Century Fox) –
    Jennifer Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Robert DeNiro, Diane Ladd, Edgar Ramirez, Isabella Rosellini

ALTERNATE: “Straight Outta Compton”

beasts1BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  1. Johnny Depp as “Whitey Bulgar” – “Black Mass” (Warner Bros.)
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio as “Hugo Glass” – “The Revenant” (20th Century Fox)
  3. Michael Fassbender as “Steve Jobs” – “Steve Jobs” (Universal Pictures)
  4. Eddie Redmayne as “Lili Elbe” – “The Danish Girl” (Focus Features)
  5. Abraham Attah as “Agu” – “Beasts of No Nation” (Netflix)

ALTERNATE: Tom Hanks as “James Donovan” – “Bridge of Spies”

45-Years-xlargeBEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

  1. Brie Larson as “Ma” – “Room” (A24 Films)
  2. Carey Mulligan as “Maud Watts” – “Suffragette” (Focus Features)
  3. Saoirse Ronan as “Ellis Lacey” – “Brooklyn” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
  4. Jennifer Lawrence as “Joy” – “Joy” (20th Century Fox)
  5. Charlotte Rampling as “Kate Mercer” – “45 Years” (Sundance Selects)

ALTERNATE: Lily Tomlin as “Elle Reid” – “Grandma” (Sony Pictures Classics)

sicario-cannes-film-festivalBEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  1. Michael Keaton as “Walter ‘Robby’ Robinson” – “Spotlight” (Open Road)
  2. Mark Ruffalo as “Michael Rezendes” – “Spotlight” (Open Road)
  3. Mark Rylance as “Rudolf Abel” – “Bridge of Spies” (DreamWorks)
  4. Benicio del Toro as “Alejandro” – “Sicario” (Lionsgate)
  5. Jacob Tremblay as “Jack” – “Room” (A24 Films)

ALTERNATE: Jason Mitchell as “Eazy E” – “Straight Outta Compton”

aliciavikander_danishgirlBEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

  1. Jennifer Jason Leigh as “Daisy Domergue” – “The Hateful Eight” (The Weinstein Company)
  2. Alicia Vikander as “Gerda Wegener” – “The Danish Girl” (Focus Features)
  3. Kate Winslet as “Joanna Hoffman” – “Steve Jobs” (Universal Pictures)
  4. Rooney Mara as “Therese Belivet” – “Carol” (The Weinstein Company)
  5. Jane Fonda as “Brenda Morel” – “Youth” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

ALTERNATE: Rachel McAdams as “Sacha Pfeiffer” – “Spotlight” (Open Road)

madmax_girlsBEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE

  1. Mad Max: Fury Road” (Warner Bros.)
  2. In the Heart of the Sea” (Warner Bros.)
  3. Furious 7” (Universal Pictures)
  4. Jurassic World” (Universal Pictures)
  5. The Martian” (20th Century Fox)

ALTERNATE: “The Revenant” (20th Century Fox)

_________________________________________________________

CHECK OUT THE OSCAR PREDICTIONS UPDATE:

PICTURE |DIRECTOR | LEAD ACTOR | LEAD ACTRESS |SUPPORTING ACTOR |SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN |CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND MIXING | SOUND EDITING |VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | FOREIGN LANGUAGE | LIVE ACTION SHORT | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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Written by Clayton Davis

Clayton Davis is the esteemed Editor and Owner of AwardsCircuit.com. Born in Bronx, NY to a Puerto Rican mother and Black father, he’s been criticizing film and television for over a decade. Clayton is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association where he votes and attends the kick off to the awards season, the Critics Choice Awards. He also founded the Latino Entertainment Journalists Association, the first Latino-based critics’ organization in the United States. He’s also an active member of the African-American Film Critics Association, New York Film Critics Online, International Press Academy, Black Reel Awards, and the Broadcast Television Journalists Association. Clayton has been quoted and appeared in various outlets that include The New York Times, CNN.com, Variety, Deadline, Los Angeles Times, FOX 5, Bloomberg Television, AOL, Huffington Post, Bloomberg Radio, The Wrap, Slash Film, and the Hollywood Reporter.

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JKN

Have you considered The Diary of a Teenage Girl as a Globes contender (especially for Bel Powley)? Also, maybe both Paul Dano and John Cusack will be nominated for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical. I’m not sure Spy and Trainwreck will both get in; they kind of overlap in target.

Iasi

So you are sure that BY THE SEA will never have any chance at all in any categories for both GG and SAG?

Andrew Aragon

He simply dislikes Cate Blanchett. This is the guy for flimsy reason backs Amy Adams when Cate is clearly a runaway winner back in 2013.

Trev

Clayton Davis, do you really think that Dreamworks “Home” has more awards potential than “Minions”? I’m just curious because I’m not sure if the HFPA would ignore Universal’s $1 billion dollar movie.

Also, would “Straight Outta Compton” be considered as a Musical/Comedy or a Drama?

Luke McGowan

What about Rock the Kasbah? Bill Murray got a nod last year for St. Vincent, and Rock the Kasbah looks about as Musical/Comedy as they come, and directed by Academy Award winner Barry Levinson no less

Jeffrey Edwards

Hi Clayton,

Was the omission of Cate Blanchett from the SAG ‘Best Actress’ category an oversight or do you think that her two performances will cancel each other out?

Thanks.

Gustavo Naspolini

I read somewhere that Love & Mercy will be considered Drama. Seriously, comedy category looks so scarce this year!

onlyshallow

The buzz may say otherwise, but I just don’t see Charlotte Rampling getting anything for 45 Years. The film really isn’t that good and she just doesn’t have enough to do.

I wouldn’t be averse to her getting a nod, as it’s always nice to see veterans get their due of course, but I very much doubt it.

kadabr

Bridge of Spies is a masterpiece and has it in the bag.

Anthony Moseley

Well, Burnt’s getting pretty bad reviews so Cooper’s probably out. Although he seems to best part of the movie, so he might slip in a GG nomination.

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